I see this as buy opportunity for tesla stocks.
Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals
101–107 of 107 posts
Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals
#102I see this as buy opportunity for tesla stocks.
I don't. The price already includes a picture perfect future for Tesla, and these news do not make me confident that the future will be that perfect.
Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals
#103Only 220 Model 3 cars in an entire quarter? There's a big problem somewhere. That sounds like some key part of the production line doesn't work at all, and something is being hand-built to get some product out the door. Tesla isn't saying what's not working. Has anything leaked out? When something like this this happens, the manufacturer has most of the costs of full production with the revenue of tiny production. Pr…
Regarding leaks, yes, there were rumors of battery pack replacements due to corrections on welds and a separate production issue with ground terminal bolts.[1] These issues could be due to the different composition of the 3 compared to the S and X - more steel, less aluminum - or with them trying to build a denser automated production line, or just general gremlins setting up new production. [1] https://electrek.co/2…
Is anyone inside the plant talking about what's wrong? That's what I meant by "leaks".
(Back when newspapers had real reporters, some reporter would go to a bar near the plant, buy some of the guys a few beers, and listen. The recent stories about Tesla are all from press releases or CEO interviews.)
Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
You understand that missing material estimates has legal implications if you do it too many times? Regulators can and do start thinking that you have something to hide. Tesla isn't a startup working out of someone's garage -- it is a large player in a heavily regulated capital market. Estimates and guidance are for investors, not for people on the street: they are supposed to mean something.
This is not a material estimate, this is an estimate that Tesla, for whatever reason, volunteered. Other manufacturers don't really do that, which is why you rarely see the headlines of Dodge Durango being three weeks behind schedule.
Material in this sense means that it has relevance to the share price of the stock. Tesla's Model 3 ramp up schedule is material information. You are right they could have not volunteered it, but since they did they have a duty to ensure it was the most accurate estimate they had at the time of release.
If it turns out that they knew or should have known they wouldn't make the schedule then they are liable for misleading investors.
Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Valuing a company based on the accuracy of what is litte more than random noise makes you a bad investor Some investors will value on random noise, and some other investors will figure this out and capture the mispricing, if there's any.
So why bother about Tesla at all? It’s all hot air...
Significant portion of TSLA float is short https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/short_interest and that's before we get into the options activity, so any whiff of news usually impacts those side games in a significant way.
There's a strong incentive for either side to overblow a piece of news that fits their agenda.
Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
You understand that missing material estimates has legal implications if you do it too many times? Regulators can and do start thinking that you have something to hide. Tesla isn't a startup working out of someone's garage -- it is a large player in a heavily regulated capital market. Estimates and guidance are for investors, not for people on the street: they are supposed to mean something.
They'll be able to show the calculations that led to the assumptions. As long as those are valid, regulators won't act. But many public companies have discovered that conservative forecasts with positive surprises are better for the share price than optimistic forecasts with profit/production warnings.
As it turns out, they knew full well that fully automated production wouldn't be possible in the upcoming quarter when the statement was made (i.e. they were manufacturing cars by hand, without an assembly line).
They lied to investors to keep the stock price pumped. Not cool.
Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
> government funded and independent Pick one, please.
I disagree. The German public broadcasters are well known for biting the hand that feeds them.
There is a subtlety in underst and who feeds them. Public broadcasters in established western countries are beholden to a social class, not to the government of the day.