Will automation put an end to the American trucker? • Hacker News Board

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#161

Post by saosebastiao » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 2:23 AM UTC

daniel-cussen wrote: post #119

tyingq wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>As far as wear and tear on the highway: that's what weigh stations are for. That doesn't create a system where trucks pay taxes roughly proportional to the damage they do.

I remember reading the damage a vehicle does is roughly proportional to the fourth power of its weight.

Kinda. Has more to do with axle load than total weight.

You could also say that the research is pretty incomplete. All the known studies have been performed at highway speeds...it's entirely plausible that speed exaggerates the damage disparity.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#162

Post by WalterBright » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 2:23 AM UTC

dchuk wrote: post #154

WalterBright wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It just seems bizarre that "highway trains" have to be reinvented alongside railroad tracks.

Trains go to many less places than highways do at this point.

Tracks go to all large cities.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#163

Post by foxylad » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 2:32 AM UTC

didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

If Uber is right about it's autonomous taxis, and Tesla's cars really will be able to come when you whistle, then last mile driving and docking are surely solvable problems.

I'm generally an optimistic person, but I think autonomous driving is going to seriously disrupt our societies. I simply cannot see where the huge workforce of unskilled males driving trucks and taxis is going to be soaked up. The industrial revolution did it last time, but anything you can suggest as a potential equivalent (colonising Mars?) will be demanding smart flexible people - and an awful lot of automated systems.

I'm picking the mass unemployment will lead to civil war in the US (where all those unskilled males have semi automatic guns) and universal basic incomes in more civilised countries.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#164

Post by adventured » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 2:44 AM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #150

protomyth wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that truck driver is the most popular job in the majority of US States, I get the feeling its going to go beyond having a political lobby. You put that many people out of work in one event and that's going to wreck havoc. Political lobbies are not the only way to exert power.

Truck driving is not the largest employment by major NAICS job classification. Instead you'll find that the ranking puts office & administrative, sales, and food services ahead of all transport. The final column is per-mille, not per-cent, contribution. 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 22026080 156.881 41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations 14536530 103.537 35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Rel…

I didn't downvote you. I'm guessing it's about two things.

The parent said the majority of the US states. [1] The premise there is - based on the data I've seen at least - in many states trucking is the most common specialized job. Sales and office jobs are non-specific as a super category. It doesn't make a lot of sense to compare something as extremely vague and varied as "sales" to trucking. Food prep & serving, does have some claim on the most common job, although that's generally a much lower tier of work in terms of pay and upside potential (fry cook, cashier or runner at McDonald's vs making $80k a year long-haul, not very comparable skill-sets).

And you didn't go any deeper on the numbers in response to large differences between states in employment (given the parent proclaimed "in the majority of US states"). For example, in some states is transportation and material moving a more common job than food prep, and which states are those? (etc etc)

[1] According to NPR's Planet Money, truck driver is in fact the most common job in most states. They reach that conclusion by dumping the overly vague super categories such as sales.

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-t...

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#165

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 2:47 AM UTC

winstonewert wrote: post #155

robotresearcher wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people spend much less of their money on stuff than poor people do. Another thousand to a millionaire goes on the pile. Another thousand to a single mom goes on kids' shoes and car repairs.

Nobody throws their money into a pile. Rich people predominantly invest their money which is still paying people to perform work, just like repairing shoes and cars.

[deleted]

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#166

Post by catbodi » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 2:47 AM UTC

foxylad wrote: post #163

didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

If Uber is right about it's autonomous taxis, and Tesla's cars really will be able to come when you whistle, then last mile driving and docking are surely solvable problems. I'm generally an optimistic person, but I think autonomous driving is going to seriously disrupt our societies. I simply cannot see where the huge workforce of unskilled males driving trucks and taxis is going to be soaked up. The industrial revo…

You're fucking crazy

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#167

Post by robotresearcher » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 2:54 AM UTC

winstonewert wrote: post #155

robotresearcher wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people spend much less of their money on stuff than poor people do. Another thousand to a millionaire goes on the pile. Another thousand to a single mom goes on kids' shoes and car repairs.

Nobody throws their money into a pile. Rich people predominantly invest their money which is still paying people to perform work, just like repairing shoes and cars.

Yes. They invest it. Not spend it as you claimed above.

And while both keep money moving, they have very different effects on the spender/investor.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#168

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 2:54 AM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #150

protomyth wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that truck driver is the most popular job in the majority of US States, I get the feeling its going to go beyond having a political lobby. You put that many people out of work in one event and that's going to wreck havoc. Political lobbies are not the only way to exert power.

Truck driving is not the largest employment by major NAICS job classification. Instead you'll find that the ranking puts office & administrative, sales, and food services ahead of all transport. The final column is per-mille, not per-cent, contribution. 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 22026080 156.881 41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations 14536530 103.537 35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Rel…

[deleted]

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#169

Post by ada1981 » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 3:03 AM UTC

catbodi wrote: post #166

foxylad wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Uber is right about it's autonomous taxis, and Tesla's cars really will be able to come when you whistle, then last mile driving and docking are surely solvable problems. I'm generally an optimistic person, but I think autonomous driving is going to seriously disrupt our societies. I simply cannot see where the huge workforce of unskilled males driving trucks and taxis is going to be soaked up. The industrial revo…

You're fucking crazy

Exactly. Truckers with AR-15s aren't going to stand a chance against the robotic police force...

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#170

Post by dredmorbius » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 3:31 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #164

dredmorbius wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Truck driving is not the largest employment by major NAICS job classification. Instead you'll find that the ranking puts office & administrative, sales, and food services ahead of all transport. The final column is per-mille, not per-cent, contribution. 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 22026080 156.881 41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations 14536530 103.537 35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Rel…

I didn't downvote you. I'm guessing it's about two things. The parent said the majority of the US states. [1] The premise there is - based on the data I've seen at least - in many states trucking is the most common specialized job. Sales and office jobs are non-specific as a super category. It doesn't make a lot of sense to compare something as extremely vague and varied as "sales" to trucking. Food prep & serving, d…

The detail level I provided is the "major" classification division. At "minor", trucking is only the 12th largest employment classification. There's a breakdown to fine detail (and I'm not sure what classification system is used) in which "truck driver" is the most numerous single entry, but that's almost entirely an ontological artefact: truck driving doesn't have a bunch of fine subdivisions. Contrast the employment classifications for "teacher", which has something like 50 distinct sub-categories.

         1	41-2000 Retail Sales Workers                                          8791750   62.619
         2	35-3000 Food and Beverage Serving Workers                             7355090   52.387
         3	43-4000 Information and Record Clerks                                 5630810   40.105
         4	29-1000 Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners                  5143640   36.636
         5	13-1000 Business Operations Specialists                               4629810   32.976
         6	53-7000 Material Moving Workers                                       4580950   32.628
         7	47-2000 Construction Trades Workers                                   4216890   30.035
         8	25-2000 Preschool, Primary, Secondary, and Special Education School   4133490   29.441
         9	43-5000 Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatching, and Distributi   4101520   29.213
        10	15-1100 Computer Occupations                                          3997370   28.471
        11	43-9000 Other Office and Administrative Support Workers               3940510   28.066
        12	53-3000 Motor Vehicle Operators                                       3934070   28.020
        13	35-2000 Cooks and Food Preparation Workers                            3190940   22.728
        14	37-2000 Building Cleaning and Pest Control Workers                    3174220   22.608
        15	43-3000 Financial Clerks                                              3133030   22.315
        16	29-2000 Health Technologists and Technicians                          3018820   21.502
        17	49-9000 Other Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations       2836540   20.203
        18	39-9000 Other Personal Care and Service Workers                       2820750   20.091
        19	13-2000 Financial Specialists                                         2651370   18.884
        20	51-9000 Other Production Occupations                                  2582350   18.393

I've looked at this before ... in June of 2015 ... and the result was very nearly the same. From then:

https://www.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/3832wx/occupat...

And yes, I have not broken this down by state, let me see if I can find that data. It's also worth noting that the NPR article uses Census classifications, which may differ from those I've listed (though Census is one of the participants in the NAICS classification, itself shared between Mexico, the US, and Canada).

NPR are ... unclear in the extreme ... as what specific data fields and employment classifications they are using. Given the NAICS categories above, multiple states would have to show peak employment in one of the listed categories above "Motor Vehicle Operators". And yet, none do.