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Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

theguardian.com

131–140 of 192 posts

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#131
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rails are already there. When I drive down I5, you can see them. The reason this sorry state of affairs exists is because truck traffic is heavily subsidized (highways paid for with taxes) whereas rail traffic is heavily taxed (and the rail companies have to pay for the tracks). It could be improved by increasing weight taxes on trucks, and using the proceeds to subsidize intercity tracks.

At least in the United States, this is incorrect. Long haul trucking is expensive compared to shipping things via the rails. The reason things end up being shipped via truck is that its faster, plain and simple. Shipping via rail car is slow and has no guaranteed arrival date. Or should I say, dependable arrival date. And from a logistics stand point you have to engage a last mile trucker at the rail head nearest you…

You're arguing past parent. He stated not that trucking is cheaper, but that it is heavily subsidized. In almost all cases, rail would cheaper, and some things will take advantage of that. Likewise, in all situations trucking will be more expensive,yet there are use cases where the reliability and speed are justified (just like couriers are sometimes justified.) The difference made by the subsidies is all in shifting the margin.

Things that would be toss-ups or wins for rail are instead pushed to trucking. This would just be wasteful, and not so pernicious, were it not for the serious negative impacts on the layout of our towns that result from favoring trucks so heavily.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#132
The freeway is where AI will be first. It is the most controlled driving environment we have. It can be made even more controlled in a fairly efficiently and cheaply. The local city and country roads have a plethora of other issues. Pedestrians, driveways, trees, multitudes of entrances and exits...its a nightmare really.

Give me AI on the freeway, and I'd probably be happy enough.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#133

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

> They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile"

It would make even more sense to employ a "local" pilot with local knowledge for the first and last miles, kind of how tug-boats help large container ships in and out of ports.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. My wife has a friend who's a long-haul trucker. He gets profoundly disrespected by the current system, including showing up at 8AM to an appointment and being made wait all day, and sometimes into the next day, for his truck to be unloaded/loaded and ready for him to take. And he's paid nothing for that. There's no penalty at all for wasting the trucker's time. I cite this as evidence that the truckers have no…

http://www.getloaded.com/load-board-blog/post/Whats-the-Best... It looks like your wife's friend needs a better broker because all the companies we deal with charge us. Our shipper won't schedule a truck unless we know that the load is ready due to how steep the fees can be. When we shipped some equipment to a major trade show, they try to schedule it so that the truckers have a minimum wait but the show will also pa…

Just because you're getting charged, doesn't mean the trucker is getting paid.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#135
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment invariably pops up in these threads; If it was going to, it already would have.. It's too late now. Would it have been a better solution? Probably, but the investment required (laying down the rails, land buyouts, copious use of emanate domain, political greasing of the wheels, etc...) has always been prohibitive. The gains would be shared between many disparate groups that would need to fund this togeth…

The rails are already there. When I drive down I5, you can see them. The reason this sorry state of affairs exists is because truck traffic is heavily subsidized (highways paid for with taxes) whereas rail traffic is heavily taxed (and the rail companies have to pay for the tracks). It could be improved by increasing weight taxes on trucks, and using the proceeds to subsidize intercity tracks.

You also have cases like Portland where they shut down the shipping terminals which mean that all the things that would move by rail instead moves by truck now.

The amount of semi traffic from Portland to Seattle on I-5 has exploded, it certainly made driving that stretch a lot less enjoyable.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#136
post #133

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

> They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile" It would make even more sense to employ a "local" pilot with local knowledge for the first and last miles, kind of how tug-boats help large container ships in and out of ports.

Harbour pilots actually drive those large ships in and out of port from the bridge.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#137

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

There are a few things I think you've overlooked: - For one, you're talking about human drivers covering first and last mile, which is a tiny, tiny fraction of the route that a truck covers which is why the Starsky model works well, in theory anyway. That means one given driver can do the work of probably a few hundred trucks in their last mile phase, even if they end up with some downtime in the middle, it's not eve…

If you want to work as a software developer, chances are you'll have to move to Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Austin, etc.

Not that I disagree with your basic point, but that's a pretty narrow view of the software world. There are jobs for developers all over the place, even in podunk towns with a few thousand residents. Granted, that town might have like 3 total jobs for programmers, but a. that's an extreme example and b. "long tail". Consider all the mid-sized cities out there, as well as "non tech hub" big cities and there's plenty of places for programmers to live and work.

Just to illustrate:

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=java&l=Buffalo%2C+NY

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=java&l=cleveland%2C+oh

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=java&l=fargo%2C+nd

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=%22visual+basic%22&l=Oklahoma+...

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=c%23+&l=Boise%2C+ID

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=java&l=chicago%2C+il

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=java&l=Cincinnati%2C+OH

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=java&l=Phoenix%2C+AZ

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=java&l=Tampa%2C+FL

etc., etc. etc.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#138
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, this is often the answer. Same with "why do we still have humans taking orders at McD?" Then it materializes when the cashier's minimum wage pops up -- in comes the kiosks.

I don't think it has anything to do with cashier wages, and more to do with customer perception. Kiosks are already cheaper than people. With minimum wage at $7.25/hour, and a Kiosk being able to replace 2+ shifts (16 hour days 7 days a week), that's $30K/year in savings, which would more than pay for a kiosk and maintenance. Developing the software to run them isn't free, but spreading $15M in development costs amon…

I think the decision has 3 main factors:

1. Total operational cost,

2. Customer satisfaction,

3. Risk related to change.

You make a good point though -- perhaps it's not primarily driven by the combo of current and projected minimum wage hikes.

Can anyone quantify?

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#139

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

Corollary - Why no driverless trains yet?

http://www.afr.com/business/mining/iron-ore/rio-tinto-makes-...

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#140
post #13

The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains...there will be a real human driver in the front of the caravan, maybe just in a van or car, and then 1-10 self driving heavy duty trucks behind them. They'll draft off of each other and do 99% of the long haul route in an automated way. Once each truck is near it's destination, it will peel off of the pack and park itself near the highway, at which…

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