Will automation put an end to the American trucker? • Hacker News Board

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#101

Post by sigstoat » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 10:03 PM UTC

FussyZeus wrote: post #67

didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

There are a few things I think you've overlooked: - For one, you're talking about human drivers covering first and last mile, which is a tiny, tiny fraction of the route that a truck covers which is why the Starsky model works well, in theory anyway. That means one given driver can do the work of probably a few hundred trucks in their last mile phase, even if they end up with some downtime in the middle, it's not eve…

> Thirdly, if all trucking is done from various Starsky-like operations, then truckers in general will be moving into more consolidated living conditions.

why? if the controls are network traffic, and one driver being right next to another driver doesn't add value, why not spread them across the country? it'll reduce control latency, increase reliability (can't have all deliveries stopping if the fiber to one building is cut), and make it easier to have drivers awake when the deliveries are tending to take place (certainly some locations might take deliveries in the middle of the night, but mostly they're going to happen when businesses and such have employees available to receive the materials.)

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#102

Post by winstonewert » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 10:18 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #92

winstonewert wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wages aren't "lost", the "saved" money will still be paid to somebody to do something.

Typically the gains would be shared through lower prices to customers and higher profits. Lower costs might also increase demand for services and goods, growing the industry and increasing employment elsewhere in companies, though that latter is likely to be a relatively small effect.

Its not about lower costs or growing the industry.

If we save $1 billion dollars in automating one industry, we are just going to spend that $1 billion dollars elsewhere, growing some other industry.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#103

Post by Johnny555 » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 10:19 PM UTC

dogruck wrote: post #96

xur17 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The savings likely aren't worth it. Trains can pull a lot of cargo compared to a truck, so the marginal cost for a driver is a substantially smaller percentage.

Yup, this is often the answer. Same with "why do we still have humans taking orders at McD?" Then it materializes when the cashier's minimum wage pops up -- in comes the kiosks.

I don't think it has anything to do with cashier wages, and more to do with customer perception.

Kiosks are already cheaper than people.

With minimum wage at $7.25/hour, and a Kiosk being able to replace 2+ shifts (16 hour days 7 days a week), that's $30K/year in savings, which would more than pay for a kiosk and maintenance.

Developing the software to run them isn't free, but spreading $15M in development costs among 14,000 restaurants is only $1K each.

But many customers would balk at having to order at a kiosk, so McDonalds will still hire humans.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#104

Post by ahakki » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 10:24 PM UTC

KekDemaga wrote: post #50

spaced-out wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think a human driver would do if they were faced with a barricade? They'll hand over the keys. Act quickly and they probably won't even have the chance to call the cops before you take their phone. An automated truck will lock itself down, and start taking high def video. Plus, if it has a satellite hook-up, it can contact the police even from outside of cellphone range.

Laws would have to change with a person in the cab you are talking about Grand Theft, Kidnapping, and Robbery. With an AI it's just Grand Theft meaning you'd spend much less time in prison.

Why would laws have to change, after all there is no kidnapping and robbery occuring. Stealing the contents of an ai-truck is less terrible than robbing a truck driver at gunpoint. There is a reason one is punished more than the other.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#105

Post by Johnny555 » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 10:25 PM UTC

FussyZeus wrote: post #67

didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

There are a few things I think you've overlooked: - For one, you're talking about human drivers covering first and last mile, which is a tiny, tiny fraction of the route that a truck covers which is why the Starsky model works well, in theory anyway. That means one given driver can do the work of probably a few hundred trucks in their last mile phase, even if they end up with some downtime in the middle, it's not eve…

If you want to work as a software developer, chances are you'll have to move to Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Austin, etc

If you're willing to work for truck driver wages ($40K - $70K), you can be a developer in any sizable town in the USA.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#106

Post by alacombe » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 10:28 PM UTC

Automation is one thing in fully mapped Mountain View with perfect weather. It's a whole other job when supply lines go through rough terrain, like Canadian western highways in winter... those chains won't get around those tires by themselves, not to mention the risk of mechanical failures.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#107

Post by Sohcahtoa82 » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 10:34 PM UTC

Johnny555 wrote: post #103

dogruck wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, this is often the answer. Same with "why do we still have humans taking orders at McD?" Then it materializes when the cashier's minimum wage pops up -- in comes the kiosks.

I don't think it has anything to do with cashier wages, and more to do with customer perception. Kiosks are already cheaper than people. With minimum wage at $7.25/hour, and a Kiosk being able to replace 2+ shifts (16 hour days 7 days a week), that's $30K/year in savings, which would more than pay for a kiosk and maintenance. Developing the software to run them isn't free, but spreading $15M in development costs amon…

> But many customers would balk at having to order at a kiosk, so McDonalds will still hire humans.

A lot of locations around me have both kiosks and staffed registers.

I used the kiosk once and thought it was annoying to work through. If you have a simple order like "A medium #3", then its an order of magnitude faster to order through a person. On the other hand, if you like to customize your burger, or order a several things a la carte, the kiosk might be better depending on the competence of the human at the cash register.

(Of course, whether or not your customized burger or list of a la carte items gets made correctly by the kitchen staff is an entirely different conversation...)

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#108

Post by WalterBright » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 10:35 PM UTC

alphaalpha101 wrote: post #59

WalterBright wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rails are already there. When I drive down I5, you can see them. The reason this sorry state of affairs exists is because truck traffic is heavily subsidized (highways paid for with taxes) whereas rail traffic is heavily taxed (and the rail companies have to pay for the tracks). It could be improved by increasing weight taxes on trucks, and using the proceeds to subsidize intercity tracks.

Yeah the impact on roads increases with the fourth power of vehicle weight. Why doesn't the tax?

I read years ago that truck loaded to the legal weight limit causes 9,000 times as much fatigue damage as a car. And lots of trucks are overloaded.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#109

Post by WalterBright » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 10:36 PM UTC

wil421 wrote: post #77

WalterBright wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The long haul stuff should go on rails anyway. It's very wasteful to run it on the interstates. The majority of the fatigue damage to the highways comes from trucks, then there's all the rubber dust, fuel inefficiency, etc. The trailers should just be picked up and dropped on flatcars, and trucks used for intracity last mile stuff.

What makes you think this isn’t already happening? Norfolk southern runs behind my house and I see semi trailers on top of rail cars all the time. I see UPS trailers on trains almost every time I watch one. Refrigerated semi trailers are common on trains too. I’m guessing they have food in them.

> What makes you think this isn’t already happening?

Driving on I5 that seems to be a continuous stream of semi trucks, while I rarely see a freight train next to the freeway.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#110

Post by cm2187 » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 10:37 PM UTC

throwaway1892 wrote: post #64

WalterBright wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rails are already there. When I drive down I5, you can see them. The reason this sorry state of affairs exists is because truck traffic is heavily subsidized (highways paid for with taxes) whereas rail traffic is heavily taxed (and the rail companies have to pay for the tracks). It could be improved by increasing weight taxes on trucks, and using the proceeds to subsidize intercity tracks.

Even in France, with paying interstate (called autoroute here) and subsidized rail (it was a state monopole until recently), most of transport of goods is by truck. I think it's mostly a last mile problem (you'll need big trucks to carry from the station), compounded by the fact that most of the train station of cities and I don't think they is a lot of dedicated cargo train station. Also you do not control part of t…

I believe SNCF was also know for loosing freight a few years ago. Might have improved these days since I assume most cars must have some sort of GPS. Timing was another problem since freight had to yield priority to passenger traffic, which is pretty dominant in France.