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Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

theguardian.com

41–50 of 192 posts

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#41

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

The long haul stuff should go on rails anyway. It's very wasteful to run it on the interstates. The majority of the fatigue damage to the highways comes from trucks, then there's all the rubber dust, fuel inefficiency, etc. The trailers should just be picked up and dropped on flatcars, and trucks used for intracity last mile stuff.

This comment invariably pops up in these threads; If it was going to, it already would have.. It's too late now.

Would it have been a better solution? Probably, but the investment required (laying down the rails, land buyouts, copious use of emanate domain, political greasing of the wheels, etc...) has always been prohibitive. The gains would be shared between many disparate groups that would need to fund this together, taking years to decades for any ROI - certainly a longer time-frame than most publicly traded, quarterly measured, corporations can afford. At the least this would have required some government subsidization.

With driver-less tech around the corner, returns on this investment for any one company become even more dubious, and thus make it less likely to happen. I think the parent comment here will always get some up-votes, but that is as far as I see this going anymore. Maybe it'd go farther if we threw in words like 'Hyperloop' ;)

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#42
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The long haul stuff should go on rails anyway. It's very wasteful to run it on the interstates. The majority of the fatigue damage to the highways comes from trucks, then there's all the rubber dust, fuel inefficiency, etc. The trailers should just be picked up and dropped on flatcars, and trucks used for intracity last mile stuff.

This comment invariably pops up in these threads; If it was going to, it already would have.. It's too late now. Would it have been a better solution? Probably, but the investment required (laying down the rails, land buyouts, copious use of emanate domain, political greasing of the wheels, etc...) has always been prohibitive. The gains would be shared between many disparate groups that would need to fund this togeth…

The rails are already there. When I drive down I5, you can see them.

The reason this sorry state of affairs exists is because truck traffic is heavily subsidized (highways paid for with taxes) whereas rail traffic is heavily taxed (and the rail companies have to pay for the tracks).

It could be improved by increasing weight taxes on trucks, and using the proceeds to subsidize intercity tracks.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#43
post #40
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't see why autonomous vehicles couldn't handle the first/last miles soon after mastering the open road. I think only regulation would made this a requirement.

Until AI for vehicles massively increases, humans are going to be better at navigating the truck through smaller roads, abiding by weight restrictions that may not already be known about, having local knowledge of the area that AI might not have. Every delivery location is going to be a little different so you would need a really general AI to understand how to just get the truck up to the loading dock (if you are th…

> Every delivery location is going to be a little different so you would need a really general AI to understand how to just get the truck up to the loading dock (if you are that lucky).

or, as someone with a loading dock, i'd be willing to pay to have someone come out with a bunch of lidar gear and whatever to model up my dock and surrounding area, so i could just provide a big data blob about my dock to the shipping companies, and have their AI trucks pull in correctly every time.

as opposed to worrying about the days when some new guy (with his local knowledge and general intelligence) shows up to deliver and comes in the wrong way and gets stuck for 2 hours.

(there's a new job for you right there, folks, since the model will probably need to be updated every year or two as the shipping companies change their AIs, and changes are made to the surrounding buildings.)

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#44
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The long haul stuff should go on rails anyway. It's very wasteful to run it on the interstates. The majority of the fatigue damage to the highways comes from trucks, then there's all the rubber dust, fuel inefficiency, etc. The trailers should just be picked up and dropped on flatcars, and trucks used for intracity last mile stuff.

This comment invariably pops up in these threads; If it was going to, it already would have.. It's too late now. Would it have been a better solution? Probably, but the investment required (laying down the rails, land buyouts, copious use of emanate domain, political greasing of the wheels, etc...) has always been prohibitive. The gains would be shared between many disparate groups that would need to fund this togeth…

The current rail network already grows and shrinks with demand so long term you it can continue to expand without massive investments.

IMO, Automated trucking makes trains more not less useful. The core problem with using trains is speed plus how much time and effort loading and unloading takes. With automated trucks you can significantly reduce this friction.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#45
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autonomous trucks may actually be a little more secure. The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin and truckers are strongly encouraged to not stop in this zone. Many still do though, either for legitimate reasons, or they're working with the thieves. Automated trucking will probably fix this problem. You can have automated trucks moving from secured site to secured site without worrying a…

> The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin ... Now. The GP point is, if in future thieves find ways to explore truck software and redirect the trucks then current statistics will change.

I don't think exploiting software, in the usual sense of the term, is even necessary. Just box the truck in somehow when it's off the grid and can't phone home. There's no way the designers will build in the capability to ram through a barricade, will they?

My point, which I stated poorly, is that automated trucking is a whole new class of problems from a security standpoint. I'm leaving some scenarios out deliberately. I haven't even given much thought to the problem, but I hope someone does.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the United States at least, it's going to be devastating. I don't see a bunch of individual owner-operators banding together to protect their livelihoods. As soon as it's cheaper to run automated trucks, they'll get picked off one by one. Probably the best than can be hoped for is laws mandating a person as co-operator in case of emergency. There's also some version of the last mile problem, where people need to b…

> I imagine no one has explored the security implications yet. I bet they have. Especially insurers.

I would hope so. And maybe the cost of insurance is what keeps human-driven trucking going for awhile longer.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#47
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autonomous trucks may actually be a little more secure. The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin and truckers are strongly encouraged to not stop in this zone. Many still do though, either for legitimate reasons, or they're working with the thieves. Automated trucking will probably fix this problem. You can have automated trucks moving from secured site to secured site without worrying a…

> The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin ... Now. The GP point is, if in future thieves find ways to explore truck software and redirect the trucks then current statistics will change.

It seems like it'd be far easier to rob a human-driven truck. Point a gun in the driver's face and they'll do whatever you want. For a machine, you'll actually have to hack into it.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I imagine no one has explored the security implications yet. I bet they have. Especially insurers.

Insurers, in stark contrast to VC funded startups, are very conservative. I'm confident they'll rather not spend time and money now exploring something that's not going to be reality for at least half a decade, maybe ever.

I agree, they are among the most conservative. But I think that's why they are studying it. Insurance companies hate being surprised.

Self-driving vehicles will going to prevent a lot of collisions which will in turn drive premiums way, way down. The need to insure unattended shipments is one mitigating factor that I bet they are thinking about.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#49
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin ... Now. The GP point is, if in future thieves find ways to explore truck software and redirect the trucks then current statistics will change.

I don't think exploiting software, in the usual sense of the term, is even necessary. Just box the truck in somehow when it's off the grid and can't phone home. There's no way the designers will build in the capability to ram through a barricade, will they? My point, which I stated poorly, is that automated trucking is a whole new class of problems from a security standpoint. I'm leaving some scenarios out deliberate…

What do you think a human driver would do if they were faced with a barricade? They'll hand over the keys. Act quickly and they probably won't even have the chance to call the cops before you take their phone.

An automated truck will lock itself down, and start taking high def video. Plus, if it has a satellite hook-up, it can contact the police even from outside of cellphone range.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think exploiting software, in the usual sense of the term, is even necessary. Just box the truck in somehow when it's off the grid and can't phone home. There's no way the designers will build in the capability to ram through a barricade, will they? My point, which I stated poorly, is that automated trucking is a whole new class of problems from a security standpoint. I'm leaving some scenarios out deliberate…

What do you think a human driver would do if they were faced with a barricade? They'll hand over the keys. Act quickly and they probably won't even have the chance to call the cops before you take their phone. An automated truck will lock itself down, and start taking high def video. Plus, if it has a satellite hook-up, it can contact the police even from outside of cellphone range.

Laws would have to change with a person in the cab you are talking about Grand Theft, Kidnapping, and Robbery. With an AI it's just Grand Theft meaning you'd spend much less time in prison.
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