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Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

theguardian.com

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Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#31

Post by jabits »

didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

I really don't see why autonomous vehicles couldn't handle the first/last miles soon after mastering the open road. I think only regulation would made this a requirement.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#32

Post by s73ver_ »

winstonewert wrote: post #24
jobu wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this could all add up to a case where the price of truck transportation drops so much that demand for truck drivers actually increases The problem is that local drivers average about half the pay ($30-40k) vs long-haul drivers ($70-80k). Even if there is more demand for local drivers it likely won't offset the wages lost.

The wages aren't "lost", the "saved" money will still be paid to somebody to do something.

They're lost to those who would have earned them.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#33

Post by tyingq »

tomjen3 wrote: post #19
didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

Even so, it will devastate the economies of the places they drive through.

Truck stops, motels, independent semi repair shops, CB radio and accessories, probably more I'm missing. Oh, yeah, the final death knell for DVD porn.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#34

Post by WalterBright »

didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

The long haul stuff should go on rails anyway. It's very wasteful to run it on the interstates. The majority of the fatigue damage to the highways comes from trucks, then there's all the rubber dust, fuel inefficiency, etc.

The trailers should just be picked up and dropped on flatcars, and trucks used for intracity last mile stuff.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#35

Post by WalterBright »

dchuk wrote: post #13

The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains...there will be a real human driver in the front of the caravan, maybe just in a van or car, and then 1-10 self driving heavy duty trucks behind them. They'll draft off of each other and do 99% of the long haul route in an automated way. Once each truck is near it's destination, it will peel off of the pack and park itself near the highway, at which…

It just seems bizarre that "highway trains" have to be reinvented alongside railroad tracks.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#36

Post by tyingq »

ranit wrote: post #20
tynpeddler wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autonomous trucks may actually be a little more secure. The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin and truckers are strongly encouraged to not stop in this zone. Many still do though, either for legitimate reasons, or they're working with the thieves. Automated trucking will probably fix this problem. You can have automated trucks moving from secured site to secured site without worrying a…

> The vast majority of truck thefts occur within 200 miles of the origin ... Now. The GP point is, if in future thieves find ways to explore truck software and redirect the trucks then current statistics will change.

Aside from thieves, there's likely to be some mischief from the truckers whose jobs were taken away, or soon will be. They are already a group that's very tight, with lots of communication methods (CB, forums, newsletters, etc). And pretty good knowledge on how to disable/vandalize a semi truck.

I'd also expect more "insider" help than usual. Probably many truckers will be transitioned to lower paying roles and will be bitter.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#37

Post by semi-extrinsic »

jabits wrote: post #31
didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

I really don't see why autonomous vehicles couldn't handle the first/last miles soon after mastering the open road. I think only regulation would made this a requirement.

For trucks that don't follow the same routes every day (e.g. FedEx/UPS/etc.), even humans frequently have a hard time getting it right. "Oh, no, it's the other side of that bridge that's only for light vehicles. Yes, you'll have to drive around for two miles in heavy traffic to get here. No, it's the entrance on the back facing the tall green building." Etc...

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#38

Post by rezashirazian »

Everyone talks about truck drivers becoming obsolete once self driving cars take over the road.

What I would worry about are endless number of doctors and surgeons that spent a life time mastering a skill and will just as easily be rendered obsolete by the same technology.

Lawyers too.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#39

Post by semi-extrinsic »

criddell wrote: post #27
michrassena wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the United States at least, it's going to be devastating. I don't see a bunch of individual owner-operators banding together to protect their livelihoods. As soon as it's cheaper to run automated trucks, they'll get picked off one by one. Probably the best than can be hoped for is laws mandating a person as co-operator in case of emergency. There's also some version of the last mile problem, where people need to b…

> I imagine no one has explored the security implications yet. I bet they have. Especially insurers.

Insurers, in stark contrast to VC funded startups, are very conservative. I'm confident they'll rather not spend time and money now exploring something that's not going to be reality for at least half a decade, maybe ever.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#40

Post by moftz »

jabits wrote: post #31
didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

I really don't see why autonomous vehicles couldn't handle the first/last miles soon after mastering the open road. I think only regulation would made this a requirement.

Until AI for vehicles massively increases, humans are going to be better at navigating the truck through smaller roads, abiding by weight restrictions that may not already be known about, having local knowledge of the area that AI might not have. Every delivery location is going to be a little different so you would need a really general AI to understand how to just get the truck up to the loading dock (if you are that lucky).

The long haul portion of the journey is much more suited to the AI of today, cars already have enough tech to get this done with pretty good results.

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