Will automation put an end to the American trucker? • Hacker News Board

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#21

Post by autokad » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 5:29 PM UTC

dchuk wrote: post #13

The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains...there will be a real human driver in the front of the caravan, maybe just in a van or car, and then 1-10 self driving heavy duty trucks behind them. They'll draft off of each other and do 99% of the long haul route in an automated way. Once each truck is near it's destination, it will peel off of the pack and park itself near the highway, at which…

it seems they would need to build additional infrastructure. its my understanding that truckers would already like to caravan behind one another in very long chains (save lots of fuel), but its illegal due to traffic and safety concerns for other drivers.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#22

Post by Terr_ » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 5:30 PM UTC

dchuk wrote: post #13

The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains...there will be a real human driver in the front of the caravan, maybe just in a van or car, and then 1-10 self driving heavy duty trucks behind them. They'll draft off of each other and do 99% of the long haul route in an automated way. Once each truck is near it's destination, it will peel off of the pack and park itself near the highway, at which…

Too bad that all the "speculative VC dollars" seem to be in trying to jump directly to full-automation of multiple small passenger vehicles.

Now, I've never heard any public figure say this out loud -- so maybe I'm just barking up the wrong tree -- but I think the bandwagon is being pulled by a very particular idea about a market they can try to corner.

Specifically, they're thinking of a future demographic bump in people who are too age-impaired to safely and legally drive themselves. Folks who can't (or won't) pay another human to drive, or move to a location with better public-transit, but who still have enough affluence for a self-driving car.

IMO it explains the bubbly frenzied focus from multiple companies, despite the significant degree of basic research still required.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#23

Post by maxxxxx » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 5:33 PM UTC

DoodleBuggy wrote: post #9

Depends, do truckers have a strong political lobby? If no, they'll be in trouble. If yes, then they'll be guaranteed to exist for as long as they are funding lobbyists and politicians.

Truckers are mainly small businesses so they probably have no lobby. The bigger trucking companies that employ these self-employed truckers will happily switch to automatic trucks. They also have the political clout.

Same for farmers. The real small family farmers have no political power. It's the big farms that get laws made for them.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#24

Post by winstonewert » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 5:39 PM UTC

jobu wrote: post #16

didgeoridoo wrote: post #12

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

> this could all add up to a case where the price of truck transportation drops so much that demand for truck drivers actually increases The problem is that local drivers average about half the pay ($30-40k) vs long-haul drivers ($70-80k). Even if there is more demand for local drivers it likely won't offset the wages lost.

The wages aren't "lost", the "saved" money will still be paid to somebody to do something.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#25

Post by nkrisc » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 5:39 PM UTC

michrassena wrote: post #10

DoodleBuggy wrote: post #9

Depends, do truckers have a strong political lobby? If no, they'll be in trouble. If yes, then they'll be guaranteed to exist for as long as they are funding lobbyists and politicians.

In the United States at least, it's going to be devastating. I don't see a bunch of individual owner-operators banding together to protect their livelihoods. As soon as it's cheaper to run automated trucks, they'll get picked off one by one. Probably the best than can be hoped for is laws mandating a person as co-operator in case of emergency. There's also some version of the last mile problem, where people need to b…

I could see the last mile problem for trucking being solved by depots on the outskirts of cities where the automated trucks arrive, and human drivers commute and drive the trucks from the depot to their final destinations in the city. I don't know about the economics of it, but it could potentially be beneficial to the health of the human drivers as they wouldn't need to be making long-haul trips, but instead navigating more, but shorter, trips into cities. If this scenario increased the volume of long-haul trips (through automation), it could create demand for more drivers for the last mile trips.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#26

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 5:48 PM UTC

winstonewert wrote: post #24

jobu wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this could all add up to a case where the price of truck transportation drops so much that demand for truck drivers actually increases The problem is that local drivers average about half the pay ($30-40k) vs long-haul drivers ($70-80k). Even if there is more demand for local drivers it likely won't offset the wages lost.

The wages aren't "lost", the "saved" money will still be paid to somebody to do something.

Profits kept by shareholders.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#27

Post by criddell » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 5:56 PM UTC

michrassena wrote: post #10

DoodleBuggy wrote: post #9

Depends, do truckers have a strong political lobby? If no, they'll be in trouble. If yes, then they'll be guaranteed to exist for as long as they are funding lobbyists and politicians.

In the United States at least, it's going to be devastating. I don't see a bunch of individual owner-operators banding together to protect their livelihoods. As soon as it's cheaper to run automated trucks, they'll get picked off one by one. Probably the best than can be hoped for is laws mandating a person as co-operator in case of emergency. There's also some version of the last mile problem, where people need to b…

> I imagine no one has explored the security implications yet.

I bet they have. Especially insurers.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#28

Post by dsfyu404ed » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 5:57 PM UTC

observation wrote: post #6

The automation of vehicles is taken to strongly imply robotic devices elsewhere in society. Apart from more sophisticated robot hoovers, lawn mowers I don't think that is necessarily so. Hoovers and mowers are safe because they are small, light, low to the ground and constrained to floors and lawns. Vehicles, fast, heavy, high, are in a controlled environment. Other controlled enviroments like factories have already…

We don't even have autonomous street sweepers (well defined environment, not allowed to run over stuff) mining dump trucks (not as well defined environment, few things it's not allowed to run over and most of them have reflectors on them) or forklifts to unload trucks (well defined environment, nothing to run into).

I'm not holding my breath for automated trucking.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#29

Post by johnward » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 5:59 PM UTC

maxxxxx wrote: post #23

DoodleBuggy wrote: post #9

Depends, do truckers have a strong political lobby? If no, they'll be in trouble. If yes, then they'll be guaranteed to exist for as long as they are funding lobbyists and politicians.

Truckers are mainly small businesses so they probably have no lobby. The bigger trucking companies that employ these self-employed truckers will happily switch to automatic trucks. They also have the political clout. Same for farmers. The real small family farmers have no political power. It's the big farms that get laws made for them.

What about the teamsters union?

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#30

Post by maxxxxx » Tue, Oct 10, 2017, 6:02 PM UTC

johnward wrote: post #29

maxxxxx wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Truckers are mainly small businesses so they probably have no lobby. The bigger trucking companies that employ these self-employed truckers will happily switch to automatic trucks. They also have the political clout. Same for farmers. The real small family farmers have no political power. It's the big farms that get laws made for them.

What about the teamsters union?

Are all truckers in that union? I thought a lot of truckers are small businesses that contract with large ones.