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Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

nytimes.com

91–100 of 223 posts

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#91
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, the problem is self-limiting. If global warming reduces the carrying capacity of the environment, people will die. Dead people don't use resources; their bodies are returned to the environment by decomposers, where they will provide fertilizer for trees and other plants, which will grow even more abundantly because of the enhanced CO2 levels. Eventually the earth reaches a new equilibrium at a somewhat higher te…

LOL. Sigh. Why does global warming attract this particular brand of sophistry all the time? "President, what's your solution to the North Korean nukes?" "Nothing to worry: the problem is self-limiting. If they start a nuclear war, billions will die, and then the survivors will be too poor to build any more nuclear weapons, so naturally there will be no more nuclear wars." "But what about Puerto Rico? When are the aid…

[deleted]

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with taking personal steps, but by themselves they are largely worthless. It’s like optimizing an I/O bound program by speeding up some of the arithmetic operations not on any critical path. Telling people who continue to commute by car or use grid electricity or travel internationally that they don’t really care about climate change is idiotic – not just useless but actively counterp…

Telling people who continue to commute by car or use grid electricity or travel internationally that they don’t really care about climate change is idiotic That's a strawman. What the parent comment says is that people's behavior reveals their preferences. A more clear example is this - someone who drives a Suburban for fun and burns their trash isn't in a good position to demand that others go out of their way to tr…

> people's behavior reveals their preferences

Only if they are rational economic actors.

If you live in the sticks and want to buy food which is several kilometers away, do you throw up your hands in the air and starve so that you don't use your car?

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#93
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Big Dig may have been closer to the budget, except it kept getting changed. An example would be that they initially planned on shutting down certain routes until a politician decided to announce that traffic flow would not be disrupted. That's great if you're paid to model the traffic but probably not so great if you now have to pay the added expenses.

But that indicates the project was not planned well since change requests for such a large project would have been expected.

Politicians will always find a way to promise changes to big ticket items. They're the ones that hold the purse strings. You can't plan for whomever is going to be in office next year ("a week is a long time in politics").

Case in point: it was only 17 months from Trump announcing his candidacy to winning the election - plus his party put up over 20 nominees.

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#94
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? When you can use disaster capitalism and profit on the "volatility" provided by such events?

I've heard it said that in the UK a fatal car crash increases GDP by about £1 million.

I think you mean 'decreases'

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#95

I may not understand the scope of this project, but when I read the $2 billion, my thought was "wow that's cheap!" Consider the Big Dig or the current Seattle tunnel, at $14B+ and $3B+ respectively.

To be fair, nobody would have undertaken the Big Dig if the true cost were known up-front. And a debt that's 200% GDP is a unique circumstance.

Similarly, the cost of Seattle's tunnel was greatly inflated by the little mistake that halted Bertha.

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#96

I may not understand the scope of this project, but when I read the $2 billion, my thought was "wow that's cheap!" Consider the Big Dig or the current Seattle tunnel, at $14B+ and $3B+ respectively.

I don't know how they handle infrastructure, but whatever they do seems like something the rest of the world could learn from. A little while ago it made international news when they fixed a sink hole in a few days: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/15/asia/fukuoka-sinkhole-fill...

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#97
post #10

It's so crazy to me that everyone in vulnerable places--Tokyo and Houston in the article for example--are happy to spend hundreds of millions, even billions, to put a bandaid on their local climate change problems. It seems like they all acknowledge the reality and danger of climate change and are willing to spend money on it. In TFA Houston wants $400 million to build a reservoir. They seem to acknowledge that thing…

It's basically the Tragedy of the Commons on a global scale. The atmosphere is a huge public good, and climate change is a huge negative externality. It's relatively beneficial to the individual person, and even the individual country, to ignore the problem, even if it ultimately harms the population as a whole in the long run. That's why so many people prefer to ignore the problem or pretend it doesn't exist, rather…

Very interesting idea

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#98
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very likely that local band-aids are the most effective way to deal with this. Your train example is a pretty good one, but you've mixed up the metaphor. Here, "stepping out of the way" = mass migrations out of coastal cities. "A mechanized winch that temporarily lifts us over the train" = flood control projects like in Tokyo, Houston, Venice, or the Netherlands. "Calling the train company and asking them to sto…

> I'd argue that the actual solution to global warming will be more akin to "stepping out of the way": people will evacuate from major cities, major cities will be destroyed, And the people too poor to evacuate will stick it out in the city hoping for the best, and die in the aftermath of the next catastrophe.

When the alternative is

> even if they were willing, by the time you got through to someone with the power to stop the trains you'll probably be dead anyway.

But in reality, "we're" not just doing one thing. There are many things going on to solve the problem from multiple levels. While Tokyo is building up flood protections, Australia(n banks) is actively divesting from fossil full projects.

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#99
post #10

It's so crazy to me that everyone in vulnerable places--Tokyo and Houston in the article for example--are happy to spend hundreds of millions, even billions, to put a bandaid on their local climate change problems. It seems like they all acknowledge the reality and danger of climate change and are willing to spend money on it. In TFA Houston wants $400 million to build a reservoir. They seem to acknowledge that thing…

I kinda agree with you, but I still find this more interesting than the usual nothing + catastrophy aftermath in flooded areas.

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that we could be headed for a mass extinction, whether or not humans manage to survive thousands of years longer. We aren’t going to entirely destroy life on the planet, which will eventually recover great diversity (speciation to fill new ecological niches in some new stable equilibrium) within a few million years after we’re gone, but it will look significantly different than what we are familiar with. Tha…

This issue is too political for normal people to properly understand. I don't mean to offend you personally but there's little value in the feelings of someone who's been immersed in a social atmosphere of global warming propaganda, calls to action, and pressure to shut down dissenting voices. Even scientists can't safely publish work on positive effects of climate change or areas where it's not as bad as previously…

The less clear our predictions are, the more we should manage the risk.

If we've shifted planetary equilibrium far enough, we could be just "2 or 3 volcanic eruptions within a short window of time" away from accelerated feedback effects into a runaway catastrophe

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