31–40 of 81 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
No it isn't! It's better to buy and hold and ride it out. Otherwise you tend to miss the gains on the other side. Decades of research by now has shown that buy-and-hold beats timing the market every time.
...beats trying to time the market... If you can time the market correctly, that is obviously the optimal strategy.
Joe Kennedy supposedly said he avoided the stock crash of 1929 by getting out of the market when his shoeshiner started giving him stock tips. Multiple times recently I’ve been at restaurants recently overhearing people talk about how much money they’re going to make in Bitcoin. It’s hard to convey here, but the make-money-who-cares-how-it’s-magic came across every time in such a wow-this-is-definitely-a-bubble way.…
Interesting to note that dollar adjusted the market has actually been going down for months. http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2017/10/04/Photos/NS/MW...
Can you explain this a little more? I don't quite know what dollar adjusted means.
When OP talks about dollar adjusted returns of S&P, an analogous mechanism is at work.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you explain this a little more? I don't quite know what dollar adjusted means.
If I understand right, this is basically merging s&p 500 [1] and dollar value index [2]. The value of the dollar has been dropping all year, at a higher rate than the value of the s&p 500 has been going up. Basically, the market's dollar denominated value is going up, but dollars are becoming less valuable. This combines to mean that market value has actually down this year, not up. Perhaps op can correct me on anyth…
Of course, the falling dollar price benefits US exports in the future, so it could be a good time to invest in US, now that it has been performing less stellar compared to the rest of the world.
Interesting to note that dollar adjusted the market has actually been going down for months. http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2017/10/04/Photos/NS/MW...
Can you explain this a little more? I don't quite know what dollar adjusted means.
Inflation means the purchasing power of the unit of currency is reduced. iirc it was Keynes who noted that government financing can utilise the margin between real and nominal values, with the benefit of also maintaining animal spirits (bullishness/confidence) as the public sees only price. For economist perspectives: Paul Krugman's blog elaborates on this in a readable way. Mises.org provides one critique. David Harvey another. Dan Amerman provides an CFA/investor perspective (http://danielamerman.com/va/Dow36.html)
The graph linked to above could be viewed as a decline in real value of equities - or the value preserving market response to inflationary pressures (with some degree of non-market support)
The combination of inflation and tax rates is important to understanding the interplay between government, markets and the wider economy. Which is the dog and which the tail is a moot point. Not endorsing, and not by any means the last word, but David Graeber provides an alternative starting point before exploring further: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2015/oct/28/...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
No it isn't! It's better to buy and hold and ride it out. Otherwise you tend to miss the gains on the other side. Decades of research by now has shown that buy-and-hold beats timing the market every time.
...beats trying to time the market... If you can time the market correctly, that is obviously the optimal strategy.
[0] https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/bogleheads-principles-never-...
[1] https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/does...
"In investing, it is better to sell a year too early, than a day too late".
No it isn't! It's better to buy and hold and ride it out. Otherwise you tend to miss the gains on the other side. Decades of research by now has shown that buy-and-hold beats timing the market every time.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
No it isn't! It's better to buy and hold and ride it out. Otherwise you tend to miss the gains on the other side. Decades of research by now has shown that buy-and-hold beats timing the market every time.
That entirely depends on your timeframe. If you are an older person at or near retirement and planning on using your investments to pay for your living expenses you are much better off going into cash and low risk investments like treasuries. If you plan on having investments for the next 40+ years your outlook is totally different, and so should be your trading strategy.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If I understand right, this is basically merging s&p 500 [1] and dollar value index [2]. The value of the dollar has been dropping all year, at a higher rate than the value of the s&p 500 has been going up. Basically, the market's dollar denominated value is going up, but dollars are becoming less valuable. This combines to mean that market value has actually down this year, not up. Perhaps op can correct me on anyth…
Yes, and as a European, this is very visible in my portfolio. S&P 500 ETF is the worst performing part of my savings portfolio, when nominated in euros. China, Nordics, rest of the Europe & emerging markets are all doing fine. Of course, the falling dollar price benefits US exports in the future, so it could be a good time to invest in US, now that it has been performing less stellar compared to the rest of the world…
The US economy seems to be less dependent on exports as other countries, and the fortunes of US (tech) companies seem to hinge on other things than exchange rates.
Joe Kennedy supposedly said he avoided the stock crash of 1929 by getting out of the market when his shoeshiner started giving him stock tips. Multiple times recently I’ve been at restaurants recently overhearing people talk about how much money they’re going to make in Bitcoin. It’s hard to convey here, but the make-money-who-cares-how-it’s-magic came across every time in such a wow-this-is-definitely-a-bubble way.…
Mid 2000s was about flipping houses. Do we have seminars at Marriott courtsides pitching bitcoin yet?