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Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals

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Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals

#91

Post by hallmark »

Animats wrote: post #63

Only 220 Model 3 cars in an entire quarter? There's a big problem somewhere. That sounds like some key part of the production line doesn't work at all, and something is being hand-built to get some product out the door. Tesla isn't saying what's not working. Has anything leaked out? When something like this this happens, the manufacturer has most of the costs of full production with the revenue of tiny production. Pr…

Regarding leaks, yes, there were rumors of battery pack replacements due to corrections on welds and a separate production issue with ground terminal bolts.[1]

These issues could be due to the different composition of the 3 compared to the S and X - more steel, less aluminum - or with them trying to build a denser automated production line, or just general gremlins setting up new production.

[1] https://electrek.co/2017/09/29/tesla-model-3-production-ramp...

Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals

#92

Post by Animats »

kurthr wrote: post #70
Animats wrote: post #63

Only 220 Model 3 cars in an entire quarter? There's a big problem somewhere. That sounds like some key part of the production line doesn't work at all, and something is being hand-built to get some product out the door. Tesla isn't saying what's not working. Has anything leaked out? When something like this this happens, the manufacturer has most of the costs of full production with the revenue of tiny production. Pr…

Rather than a bottle neck, I'd say the production line wasn't up for the majority of the quarter. At 220 cars in ~120days, that is an 8-12 hour average takt time. Since nobody does that in production, it's more likely that they take the line down, fix things, and bring it up again days later. I'd be more interested in the change in delivery rate over the 3 months. If 218 cars were delivered on the last day, it would…

Workers at Fremont are complaining of overwork, time pressure, unsafe working conditions, and long hours. They're trying to join the UAW. It's not like they have production employees standing around doing nothing while the production engineers try to fix the line. "I’ve seen people pass out, hit the floor like a pancake and smash their face open. They just send us to work around him while he’s still laying on the floor."[1]

Comments on Glassdoor indicate that lower and middle management are disorganized.

[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-workers-detail-...

Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals

#94

Post by unepipe »

parent5446 wrote: post #79
unepipe wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize that Tesla is a publicly traded company, and what you are saying (that they would misrepresent production numbers) would be securities fraud. They publicly stated their goals: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2017/08/02/tesla-st... ) They did not reach their goals. No need for paranoia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securities_fraud

Where did I say that they misrepresented their production numbers, or committed securities fraud? In any case it's not paranoia. No matter what the law is, a press release is a first-party source. It is inherently biased toward the company. By no means should it be compared to an independent source, such as a report from an auditor or independent regulators.

You said that the information regarding either production goals or production numbers from Tesla's website was "inherently biased toward the company and not the best source". Meaning the published reservations, projections or production numbers would have been misrepresented in some way to benefit the company.

If they did so, that would be securities fraud, by definition. What about their projections, which were publicly stated and published in the past, or their actual production, which was publicly stated in the article (both of which are subject to SEC regulation review and legal recourse) are inherently biased toward the company?

Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals

#95

Post by kinkrtyavimoodh »

chambo622 wrote: post #77
lafar6502 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, that’s why Elon is suddenly talking some random bs about rockets.

Very clever of him to also have founded SpaceX for this very reason.

He's playing the long con, you see. He founded SpaceX even before getting involved with Tesla for this very reason /s

Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals

#96

Post by theyregreat »

Animats wrote: post #92
kurthr wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rather than a bottle neck, I'd say the production line wasn't up for the majority of the quarter. At 220 cars in ~120days, that is an 8-12 hour average takt time. Since nobody does that in production, it's more likely that they take the line down, fix things, and bring it up again days later. I'd be more interested in the change in delivery rate over the 3 months. If 218 cars were delivered on the last day, it would…

Workers at Fremont are complaining of overwork, time pressure, unsafe working conditions, and long hours. They're trying to join the UAW. It's not like they have production employees standing around doing nothing while the production engineers try to fix the line. "I’ve seen people pass out, hit the floor like a pancake and smash their face open. They just send us to work around him while he’s still laying on the flo…

It sounds like “kitchen chaos” startup mode while their “TPMS” workflow, tooling, fixtures and techinques get figured out for higher capacity, routine production. Unionizing is important because people shouldn’t be treated like animals and should make a living wage.

Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals

#97

Post by theyregreat »

adventured wrote: post #66
Animats wrote: post #63

Only 220 Model 3 cars in an entire quarter? There's a big problem somewhere. That sounds like some key part of the production line doesn't work at all, and something is being hand-built to get some product out the door. Tesla isn't saying what's not working. Has anything leaked out? When something like this this happens, the manufacturer has most of the costs of full production with the revenue of tiny production. Pr…

It's extremely unlikely there's a big problem in the sense that you mean it. The Model 3 is easier to produce than the Model S and less complex. There's practically nothing new on the Model 3 that would plausibly be a big thing that's not working as to hold everything up in the scandalous manner you're implying (leaks, hand-building, not working, big problems, oh my). More likely is that Musk set an overly ambitious…

It’s more likely a confluence of supplier/s, retooling and new hire temporary chaos.

Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals

#98

Post by theyregreat »

kinkrtyavimoodh wrote: post #95
chambo622 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very clever of him to also have founded SpaceX for this very reason.

He's playing the long con, you see. He founded SpaceX even before getting involved with Tesla for this very reason /s

If it weren’t sarcasm, Poe’s law would be invoked. Sometimes even Godwin’s law on really interesting days.

Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals

#99

Post by lafar6502 »

chambo622 wrote: post #77
lafar6502 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, that’s why Elon is suddenly talking some random bs about rockets.

Very clever of him to also have founded SpaceX for this very reason.

Well, if rockets fail for some reason then there’s hype loop or tunnel to China

Re: Tesla Misses Model 3 Production Goals

#100

Post by theyregreat »

nicolashahn wrote: post #15

Based on his track record, Musk often sets unrealistic timeline goals (and unrealistic engineering goals, but he usually meets those). This has happened multiple times with both Tesla and SpaceX, not surprised this happened.

If you want excellence, demand the unreasonable.
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