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Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

technologyreview.com

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Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#91
post #67
post #50

The most relevant part of the article: David Duvenaud, an assistant professor in the same department as Hinton at the University of Toronto, says deep learning has been somewhat like engineering before physics. “Someone writes a paper and says, ‘I made this bridge and it stood up!’ Another guy has a paper: ‘I made this bridge and it fell down—but then I added pillars, and then it stayed up.’ Then pillars are a hot ne…

Last I checked bridges came before Newtonian Mechanics and it seems strange to argue this wasn't a good thing. Admittedly paper writing wasn't the main mechanism of transmitting knowledge but it's fairly common for human engineering to come before the full theoretical foundations as opposed to after.

It's been a long time since I got my BE in Mechanical Engineering, but I still remember being struck by the difference between well-understood engineering and rule-of-thumb engineering.

Bridge building is mostly well-understood engineering. When you study Static Mechanics [0] you learn all sorts of Physics equations, including Newtonian Mechanics, that completely describe the forces and motions of a structure based on measurable physical properties of the materials used and details about the shapes of those materials.

When you get into Fluid Dynamics, things are different. You start to encounter a bunch of things like Reynolds number [1], which is a dimensionless value related to turbulence that you just have to look up for the particular fluids and velocities you're working with. This number is pretty well defined, but there are a lot of others and their definitions and meanings aren't nearly as clear as F=ma. Back when I was in school, particle simulations for turbulent fluids was just beginning to be feasible, so to design something you plugged in dimensionless constants and didn't worry about the unpredictable fine-details. An example of this is the wind blowing through a bridge's structure, and water flowing around its base. The equations don't give you exact forces that the turbulent air and water will exert; they give you more of an average over time. A simulation, if you can do it, can show you things (like resonance) that the equations won't show you.

Then there was Strength of Materials. Here, the big thing was the Factor of Safety [2]. This is solidly in the rule-of-thumb engineering camp. This is where the engineer says "I think two 16" steel beams would be sufficient... so lets use three 20" beams just to be sure." This is still the way a lot of engineering design is done, because the real world is never precisely known, and the factor of safety will save you when something unexpected happens.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statics

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynolds_number

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factor_of_safety

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#92

This article matches a lot of my thoughts on this topic too. There is a huge hype wave that will soon crash (alas), and it will take down a lot with it...

I disagree. Practically all breakthroughs in computing science were always 30 years old when they finally became common and useful parts of everyday society. If the breakthrough of modern AI is just as old and we're just now seeing it implemented everywhere, that's not a sign of a crash.

I think the issue is whether there is anything else in the pipeline - though it's hard to tell until it comes out of the pipe, so to speak. Back-propagation revived neural networks for a while, but wasn't there a period between then and now when they were thought to have almost exhausted their potential?

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#93

It's not a one trick pony. It's the distinction between AI research and applied AI. There's more applied AI than there's research.

From TFA: > Just about every AI advance you've heard of depends on a breakthrough that's three decades old. Keeping up the pace of progress will require confronting AI's serious limitations. The expression "one trick pony" means it does one thing, not that its foundational principles are based on one research paper. If this author's analogy holds, electromagnetism is a "one-trick pony", even though it has millions of…

I find it hard to use this analogy in the context of the whole field of AI.

The A in AI stands for artificial, and the AI denomination is so vague that applies to any form of automation however trivial. e.g: fuzzy logic in a washing machine is some sort of AI.

Maybe deep learning could be said to be the equivalent to this definition of "one-trick pony".

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#94
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last I checked bridges came before Newtonian Mechanics and it seems strange to argue this wasn't a good thing. Admittedly paper writing wasn't the main mechanism of transmitting knowledge but it's fairly common for human engineering to come before the full theoretical foundations as opposed to after.

It's not that bridges before Newton were bad, it's that Newton gave us the ability to design the strongest possible bridge of a given shape with the materials at hand - using not just calculus but calculus-of-variations, a subject nearly as old as Newtonian mechanics [1]. With this knowledge, what happens when one adds one or two columns to a bridge is now longer "news" the way it might have been before Newtonian mec…

I completely agree with your assessment, but the problem is a bit worse in my opinion. We already have a pretty firm grasp of how different ML systems learn and converge towards a solution in the average case. It's not that we need to understand our neural networks better, it's that we need to understand our problem domain better. We can't determine how well some ML architecture will perform at an object recognition problem without some math describing object recognition. This makes things a lot more complicated, because it means we have to do a lot more work to understand every single application where we want to use ML.

And, of course, if we had some really good mathematical framework for describing and reasoning about object recognition, we probably wouldn't need to turn to ML to solve it ;)

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#95
post #76
post #50

The most relevant part of the article: David Duvenaud, an assistant professor in the same department as Hinton at the University of Toronto, says deep learning has been somewhat like engineering before physics. “Someone writes a paper and says, ‘I made this bridge and it stood up!’ Another guy has a paper: ‘I made this bridge and it fell down—but then I added pillars, and then it stayed up.’ Then pillars are a hot ne…

"engineering before physics" is exactly wrong. No one did Engineering before a sophisticated understanding of Physics was achieved. They built bridges and towers, Engineering enables statements to be made about the performance of machines and buildings; it will survive a wind like x, you can do n cycles, do not load the wings in this way.

I guess the Romans didn’t have any engineers building siege engines and fortifications, then.

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#96
post #59
post #54

Nature succeeded in creating human-level intelligence with one trick and no understanding, so clearly it can be done. It did take a while though. More tricks and more understanding would probably help speed things up.

It didn't just take a while. It also took a lot of resources. And perhaps strong AI can only evolve if the agents can interact in a world that is as complicated as ours.

C.f. Kindred.ai

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#97
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last I checked bridges came before Newtonian Mechanics and it seems strange to argue this wasn't a good thing. Admittedly paper writing wasn't the main mechanism of transmitting knowledge but it's fairly common for human engineering to come before the full theoretical foundations as opposed to after.

It's been a long time since I got my BE in Mechanical Engineering, but I still remember being struck by the difference between well-understood engineering and rule-of-thumb engineering. Bridge building is mostly well-understood engineering. When you study Static Mechanics [0] you learn all sorts of Physics equations, including Newtonian Mechanics, that completely describe the forces and motions of a structure based o…

These topics bring me back.

The "rule of thumb" engineering that you speak of made me remember the different constants that were taught we should just accept as is because, well, it is considered constant. Nevermind where the guy in the book got it from, this is what works and this is what people in the industry has accepted to be standard.

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#98
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that bridges before Newton were bad, it's that Newton gave us the ability to design the strongest possible bridge of a given shape with the materials at hand - using not just calculus but calculus-of-variations, a subject nearly as old as Newtonian mechanics [1]. With this knowledge, what happens when one adds one or two columns to a bridge is now longer "news" the way it might have been before Newtonian mec…

Present day AI on the Deep Learning side is a lot like what you describe. We haven't really had the Newtonian foundations yet. The theoretical foundations are quite limited because they are hard to figure out. But the techniques with less established theory work far better on most applications in AI. Redirecting work into areas of AI that have more solid theoretical foundations but worse application performance is no…

You're right that the analogy doesn't imply that something analogous to physic is the answer.

However, I would mention that there's a larger "overhead" than many realize to methods which work without the creator or the user understanding why. You have "racist" AI which don't undertstand that correlation may not be causation in questions like whether someone should be paroled or get a loan, you have the AIs subject to adversial attacks of various sorts, where not knowing why the AI works is also problematic, you have a situation where the target to match varies over time and so-forth.

Which adds up to AI having more dimensions to it than simply "working well" and "working less well". Indeed, AI is effectively ad-hoc statistics with result derived heuristically.

So in the process of "getting things right" exploring all sorts of things certainly sounds good, it seems like there's an "understanding gap" that needs to be closed and some broader model of what's happening would be useful but naturally there's no guarantee we can find one.

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#99
AI in my mind has always been hammering down this single path of: build network, train it with x data for y iterations, and then feed live data and evaluate outputs. This approach to me seems like a glorified digital signal processing system. I think there are countless applications for this approach and I think AI is an appropriate umbrella term, but there is so much potential beyond this - Artificial General Intelligence/Strong AI/etc. I think neglect for time is a major reason we haven't seen breakthrough progress in this area.

Today, how do we handle time-series data (e.g. audio, video, sensors) in an AI? The first thing most people would do is look at an RNN technique such as LSTM which enables a memory over arbitrary time-frames. But even in this case, the definition of time is deceptive. We aren't talking about actual, continuous time. All of the approaches I have ever seen are based upon the idea that the network is discretely "clocked" by its inputs (or a need to evaluate a set of inputs). What happens if you were to zero-out all input and arbitrarily cycle one of these networks a million times? From the perspective of the network, how much actual time has elapsed? How much real-world interaction and understanding is possible without a strong sense of time? I think the time domain has been a major elusive factor for a true general intelligence.

What if you were to base the entire architecture of an AI in the time domain - That is to say, by using a real-time simulation loop which emulates the continuous passage of time? This would require that all artificial neurons and even the network structure itself be designed with the constraint that real time will pass continuously, and it must continue to operate nominally even in the absence of stimuli. In my mind this is a much closer approximation of a biological brain and looks a lot more like the domain a general intelligence would have to operate in. Continuous time domain enables all sorts of crazy stuff like virtual brain waves at various sinusoidal frequencies, day/night signaling, etc. I have found no prior art in this area, but would look forward to reviewing something I might have missed. I've already got a few ideas for how I would prototype something like this...

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you please define this term "cloud technology"? I always thought it was a marketing term for "the internet", which then would be just a bunch of servers, vms, and containers; all of which we have had for over 20 years.

What is novel about "the internet"? We've been sending data over telegraph wires for nearly 200 years. The Internet is just someone else's cable.

Since when are cables such a unique idea? The telegraph is nothing more than a large number of fancy carrier pigeons as a service, which we've had since the 12th century at least.
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