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Musk revises Mars ambitions

arstechnica.com

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Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#161

Post by darkmighty »

grey-area wrote: post #160
darkmighty wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all, I believe that [the dream of] just making a colony on Mars, per se, is obviously pointless, and actually wasteful. Per se, a small research station would be much better, and could be productive from a global utilitarian perspective. However, things change when speaking of an economically self-sustaining base; and eventually a base theoretically capable of full-self sustenance (not dying in case there wa…

The question is, can we start an industry on Mars that is efficient enough today such that the cost of producing and maintain infrastructure (solar panels, mining equipment) is lower than the output from the products? This is in my opinion the wrong question, and the answer is unequivocally no. People will not go to mars to make their fortune, at least initially, they will go for research, for glory and because they…

The question is, how many people will move there, and how are they going to pay for it? (if they are not billionaires, of which there are maybe ~2000 in the world)

I agree that maybe a handful might go there because they can. But very soon you need to start producing enough to at least keep yourself alive. So much that I believe we ought to start developing those technologies (which takes time) before other steps.

We can probably fabricate regolith-lookalikes on Earth and start doing basic chemical and industrial engineering for pretty cheap, much cheaper than the billions you need for a mission.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#162

Post by PeterisP »

reilly3000 wrote: post #128
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Interplanetary space travel is going nowhere fast because there is no profit motive. This is so very true. We can do it for Science, and for fun, but not much else.

What happens when earth goes to actual shit and rich people want out?

Making a colony on the Antarctic, in the middle of ocean, or underseas are all ways that allow you to "get out" that are much simpler to colonize on a large scale.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#163

Post by mkempe »

pacificmint wrote: post #146
mkempe wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another interesting aspect of a moon base -- would it be easier and/or cheaper to produce propellants there instead of sending four rockets up to fuel each Mars-bound ship?

On Mars you can use the Sabatier reaction to make Methane, and you can make Oxygen from Water or from CO2. What would you use on the Moon to make the Methane?

Heat up regolith?

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#164

Post by mkempe »

blacksmith_tb wrote: post #41
twinkletwinkle wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. In terms of room and resources we could just as well colonize Antarctica.

There's a lot of undersea real estate, too. Both environments are less hostile than Mars, practically speaking. But of course neither cover the 'backup planet' scenario - and they don't put you out of reach of regional political struggles.

I will applaud (and support) both of you when you colonize Antarctica and the sea floor. What's your plan, timeline, and source of financing?

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#165

Post by michrassena »

Nokinside wrote: post #75
benjaminl wrote: post #22

I don't understand why people are so quick to dismiss SpaceX's ambitions as unrealistic. They were the first to achieve re-usability of the first stage of an orbital class rocket, the first to prove out supersonic retro-propulsion and the first private company to re-fly a spacecraft (the Dragon Capsule). Given that, it seems like they should be given the benefit of the doubt when they say they are going to do somethi…

It's the colonizing Mars part Getting into Mars is solvable technological problem. Colonizing Mars is more economical and sociological problem than technological problem. Everyday living in high-tech place where everything is safety critical (like in a nuclear submarine or ISS) is extremely expensive. Productivity would have to be beyond everything that has ever existed for that becoming possibility. If Elon Musk can…

I've heard time and again that the race to the moon yielded many of the technologies we take for granted today. I'm sure that statement should be critically examined, and perhaps those benefits quantified. But I believe all of that money spent has been recouped many times over.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#168

Post by Someone »

I don’t see them building their launch ports closer to cities than airports now are, nor do I see them (certainly initially) build launch ports next to each major city. So, for most civilian flights, those earth-to-earth trips would not be that much faster, if at all.

Also, those flights would have to be extremely safe to get in the same ballpark as current commercial flights. I think that is needed to make this a ‘normal’ thing.

I would guess those earth-to-earth trips could make more sense for the military than for civilians. Yes, there is the problem of refueling your rocket near a war zone, and a risk of your rocket getting shot down, but the ability to very rapidly deploy specialized troops and/or materials may eventually be worth that, and the military might fund it even if they aren’t convinced the advantages will pan out.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#169

Post by hacking_again »

toephu2 wrote: post #126
hacking_again wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you explain this? http://www.youswear.com/index.asp?language=Japanese

Fakku? That's a transliteration from English. Most Japanese speakers generally agree that Japanese doesn't "really" have any of its own swear words. Yes if you get technical there are some like those listed on that site, but generally there are not, it is a very polite language.

Try calling your female Japanese friends "manko" and see if you still have female Japanese friends.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#170

Post by jorvi »

Nokinside wrote: post #75
benjaminl wrote: post #22

I don't understand why people are so quick to dismiss SpaceX's ambitions as unrealistic. They were the first to achieve re-usability of the first stage of an orbital class rocket, the first to prove out supersonic retro-propulsion and the first private company to re-fly a spacecraft (the Dragon Capsule). Given that, it seems like they should be given the benefit of the doubt when they say they are going to do somethi…

It's the colonizing Mars part Getting into Mars is solvable technological problem. Colonizing Mars is more economical and sociological problem than technological problem. Everyday living in high-tech place where everything is safety critical (like in a nuclear submarine or ISS) is extremely expensive. Productivity would have to be beyond everything that has ever existed for that becoming possibility. If Elon Musk can…

The race to another planet might not be economical but a race to the asteroid belt will certainly be. All those resources..
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