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Musk revises Mars ambitions

arstechnica.com

131–140 of 183 posts

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Interplanetary space travel is going nowhere fast because there is no profit motive. This is so very true. We can do it for Science, and for fun, but not much else.

What happens when earth goes to actual shit and rich people want out?

On Mars they'll be strongly dependent on Earth for resupplies in all realistic scemarios. If that doesn't exist, they die. If it does exist, they might as well just go down to Turks & Caicos instead, much cheaper and nicer.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Interplanetary space travel is going nowhere fast because there is no profit motive. This is so very true. We can do it for Science, and for fun, but not much else.

What happens when earth goes to actual shit and rich people want out?

How shitty would it have to be that rich people want to move to Mars? There is no abundance of food there, no abundance of entertainment and you can't even go outside without having to wear a space suit.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Interplanetary space travel is going nowhere fast because there is no profit motive. This is so very true. We can do it for Science, and for fun, but not much else.

What happens when earth goes to actual shit and rich people want out?

Common man. We're far, far, far more likely to build underwater cities than ones on Mars. Even orbital bases or floating Venus platforms would be better than Mars. Mars is a cold, mostly dry shitty existence.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Earth has too much baggage (humanity, politics) to suggest that it's self-evidently prudent to develop something on earth first.

Those won't be going away when we send humans to Mars. If that stuff is really a problem, start a colony in Antarctica. It'd be much easier to achieve livable conditions there than Mars, and your life support won't be tens of millions of miles away.

This. If you can't support a colony in Antarctica, or in the middle of the ocean, or on Emi Kousi in the Sahara, you can't do well on Mars. Run those as a test.

Antarctica: breathable air, much warmer than Mars, more insolation, low light-speed lag, water.

Mid-ocean: much much warmer than Mars, high pressure, low light-speed lag, lots of water. No breathable atmosphere but some oxygen can be extracted.

Emi Koussi: hugely warmer than Mars, breathable atmosphere (at 10K feet), no significant water, low light-speed lag.

Build your domes in each of those locations, run them for ten years: then you have real data, plus emergency evac.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#135
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no true proofs outside of realm of math at all. SpaceX odds for going to Mars are, however, better than anyone else's.

You mean besides all the agencies that have already gone to Mars?

Must have missed all these manned expeditions.

Otherwise sending a drone to plant a plaque on Mars has certainly been possible for SpaceX for some years now.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#136
I honestly do not get the whole concept of a solar storm shelter room on a space object that is shaped like a tower. Just turn the tower with gyroscopes into the solar wind... last room is perfectly sheltered (from solar radiation)- not from space radiation.

Also.. wouldnt a sun-shade providing drone with a water-ice container as ray shield always be superior?

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#137

> ...then why not go to other places on Earth as well? I'm addressing this because I know someone will ask. Honestly my first reaction was to laugh, then I made sense of it. Economically this does not make sense. Price points do not make sense for this, even from the most ambitious startups. You'd want to use a space plane. BUT I still think it is a good idea. The reason being is that this is a quick way to get his t…

Here is what Elon said on instrgram, "Fly to most places on Earth in under 30 mins and anywhere in under 60. Cost per seat should be about the same as full fare economy in an aircraft. Forgot to mention that." Source : https://www.instagram.com/p/BZnVfWxgdLe/?hl=en&taken-by=elon...

Which gives evidence to my guess. Because there is no way you can do a rocket for anywhere near that price. I mean, let's do some quick math. We'll even give him buffer room. Let's say you can get 50 passengers at $5k per ticket. That's $250k/flight. I just can't see how that would cover the flight (fuel), let alone things like: maintenance, licensing, insurance, and the staff to operate the facilities. Let alone doing it on $50k ($1k/ticket). I'm EXTREMELY skeptical. Elon's a pretty smart guy, and may see things that I'm not, but my best guess is that this isn't for the money. The money is just to lessen the losses.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#138
post #8

Sending humans to Mars seems less attractive to me than sending robots to Ceres. Is there an argument for Mars that doesn't include the phrase "multi-planet species"?

Mars is way closer. Mars has a more terrestrially-similar gravity level. Mars has way more solar power. Ceres is basically vacuum, can't aerobrake. And its gravity well is so small you also can't take advantage of the Oberth effect. Mars' atmosphere shields you from the vast majority of solar radiation (so no risk of death from acute radiation poisoning), from all micrometeorites, and even a significant amount of gal…

> Mars can be terraformed.

Two questions:

1) How exactly does this work, when the mean surface temperature on Mars is below freezing? [0] I don't know a lot of plants that can grow very well in below freezing temperatures with a ton of CO2. Evergreen trees come to mind, but you won't find too many of them above the arctic circle.

2) If we cannot even properly manage the atmosphere on our own planet, why do you think we'd fare any better on another planet?

To put it another way: why aren't we aggressively working to terraform Earth back into a usable state than talking about doing this on another planet where resources are much more limited and everything needs to be built locally or shipped in from another planet?

[0] https://www.space.com/16907-what-is-the-temperature-of-mars....

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#139
post #80
post #62

I'm absolutely ecstatic that Musk is talking about the Moon. Mars is great, but Luna is near & here, and honestly, it's a strategic location (not just militarily) as the it's at the top of Earth's gravity well with a minimal well of it's own - great basecamp for interplanetary missions. If we can't occupy the Moon, why should we shoot for colonizing Mars?

Another interesting aspect of a moon base -- would it be easier and/or cheaper to produce propellants there instead of sending four rockets up to fuel each Mars-bound ship?

Unlikely. The Moon lacks the feedstocks required to produce hydrocarbon fuels like RP-1, and is likely to lack the power to perform energy-intensive operations like cracking water to liquid hydrogen/oxygen.

Re: Musk revises Mars ambitions

#140
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those won't be going away when we send humans to Mars. If that stuff is really a problem, start a colony in Antarctica. It'd be much easier to achieve livable conditions there than Mars, and your life support won't be tens of millions of miles away.

This. If you can't support a colony in Antarctica, or in the middle of the ocean, or on Emi Kousi in the Sahara, you can't do well on Mars. Run those as a test. Antarctica: breathable air, much warmer than Mars, more insolation, low light-speed lag, water. Mid-ocean: much much warmer than Mars, high pressure, low light-speed lag, lots of water. No breathable atmosphere but some oxygen can be extracted. Emi Koussi: hu…

Cool, I'd never heard of Emi Koisi, I'll add that to the bucket list.
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