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Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

technologyreview.com

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Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#11

Post by derekp7 »

mbrumlow wrote: post #10
pesenti wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry but that's a ridiculous statement. It's like saying all the cloud technology we have today is not much more than having VMs. Yes, AI is hyped, but it made some very unexpected progress over the past 5 years (e.g., solving facial recognition). More than many experts expected.

Can you please define this term "cloud technology"? I always thought it was a marketing term for "the internet", which then would be just a bunch of servers, vms, and containers; all of which we have had for over 20 years.

"cloud technology" is "servers, VMs, containers" that is also SER (Somebody Else's Responsibility). Hence the term "cloud", as that was always used in network diagrams to refer to network connection infrastructure that wasn't yours.

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#12

Post by vtange »

Upvoter33 wrote: post #7

This article matches a lot of my thoughts on this topic too. There is a huge hype wave that will soon crash (alas), and it will take down a lot with it...

Any keyword that is depended on to move money will see hype waves, surfs and crashes. We are seeing/saw it with crypto, it is no different with AI.

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#13

Post by votepaunchy »

mbrumlow wrote: post #10
pesenti wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry but that's a ridiculous statement. It's like saying all the cloud technology we have today is not much more than having VMs. Yes, AI is hyped, but it made some very unexpected progress over the past 5 years (e.g., solving facial recognition). More than many experts expected.

Can you please define this term "cloud technology"? I always thought it was a marketing term for "the internet", which then would be just a bunch of servers, vms, and containers; all of which we have had for over 20 years.

What is novel about "the internet"? We've been sending data over telegraph wires for nearly 200 years. The Internet is just someone else's cable.

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#14

Post by Xcelerate »

yters wrote: post #8
rjromero wrote: post #2

Finally a realistic view of where “artificial intelligence” currently stands. I wish I knew where guys like Elon Musk are seeing this other artificial intelligence I’m just not seeing. The current AI we have is just fancy linear regression.

All AI is just objective minimization. AI cannot solve the halting problem or perform Solomonoff induction.

> AI cannot [...] perform Solomonoff induction.

Well it's clearly got to approximate it somehow, else humans wouldn't currently be making decently accurate predictions about the future.

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#15

Post by johansch »

rjromero wrote: post #2

Finally a realistic view of where “artificial intelligence” currently stands. I wish I knew where guys like Elon Musk are seeing this other artificial intelligence I’m just not seeing. The current AI we have is just fancy linear regression.

Are you thinking Elon's concern is about what we have today?

Duh. Today's AI methods are great at pattern recognition (weak AI).

The real risk is obviously a strong, generic AI. We don't know how to to get there, but we kinda do know that we will, so now is the time to think about risks.

I really don't get why this is controversial or hard to understand. (My most cynical thought is that it's just about people doing weak AI feeling bothered and trying to kill the conversation out of short term strategical reasons because they know that many people are bound to mix up the concepts of weak and strong AIs, particularly since they are often selling their weak pattern matching AI systems as something quite a lot more.)

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#16

Post by mbrumlow »

votepaunchy wrote: post #13
mbrumlow wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you please define this term "cloud technology"? I always thought it was a marketing term for "the internet", which then would be just a bunch of servers, vms, and containers; all of which we have had for over 20 years.

What is novel about "the internet"? We've been sending data over telegraph wires for nearly 200 years. The Internet is just someone else's cable.

That was my point, you just went back further in history than I did :p

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#17

Post by TeMPOraL »

sgt101 wrote: post #5

Well, here I was having my head spun round and round by GAN's, LTSM, Bayes Belief Nets, causality networks, counterfactuals, and scale.. for optimisation, simulation.

> LTSM, Bayes Belief Nets, causality networks, counterfactuals

Still waiting for the mainstream to discover those, though.

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#18

Post by wvenable »

Upvoter33 wrote: post #7

This article matches a lot of my thoughts on this topic too. There is a huge hype wave that will soon crash (alas), and it will take down a lot with it...

I disagree. Practically all breakthroughs in computing science were always 30 years old when they finally became common and useful parts of everyday society. If the breakthrough of modern AI is just as old and we're just now seeing it implemented everywhere, that's not a sign of a crash.

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#19

Post by GCU-Empiricist »

rjromero wrote: post #2

Finally a realistic view of where “artificial intelligence” currently stands. I wish I knew where guys like Elon Musk are seeing this other artificial intelligence I’m just not seeing. The current AI we have is just fancy linear regression.

The current computers we have are just fancy compound gate machines.

Re: Is AI Riding a One-Trick Pony?

#20

Post by philipkglass »

I'm encouraged that so much fruitful work has come out of this one trick. If you can use the same basic framework for image labeling, playing Go, and translating natural languages, I'd say it's a powerful tool with broad applications.

I think that there's a kernel of insight to "A real intelligence doesn’t break when you slightly change the problem." But human perception and intelligence are pretty brittle. The methodological and institutional innovations that have developed human understanding of nature beyond the ad-hoc are very recent in recorded history, and just an eye-blink ago in our biological history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_illusion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auditory_illusion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

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