China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days • Hacker News Board

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#61

Post by thevardanian » Thu, Sep 28, 2017, 5:55 PM UTC

gumby wrote: post #53

thevardanian wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor. I don't see why you say this. I wouldn't say they are especially competent, but they seem to have stayed in existence and played off various larger rivals successfully for 70 odd years.

Put another way. They're not going to play ball. Things cannot be solved diplomatically. Unless you call breaking all diplomatic promises, and developing nukes diplomacy.

A rational actor is a nation that is predictable, and is willing to uphold their word, and agreements. If promises are broken, agreements torn a part I don't think that state is a "rational" actor.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#62

Post by thevardanian » Thu, Sep 28, 2017, 6:01 PM UTC

tooltalk wrote: post #42

thevardanian wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

I second oh_sigh's view on this matter. As FP notes, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/26/kim-jong-un-is-a-survivo... , they are doing what they doing to survive. annex what? I don't think China's interested in maintaining a peaceful region, as much as they are scared of losing control of their country and desperately trying to keep their country in one piece, having witnessed the fall outs from the collapse of the So…

I agree. They don't want to lose power, if anything they want to expand it. We can call it "survival mode", but I don't think their desperation can be solved by diplomacy. So what is the solution? More diplomacy? More failed agreements? More broken promises?

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#63

Post by aquadrop » Thu, Sep 28, 2017, 6:07 PM UTC

gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

He can't actually do anything serious, because he understands that this instance it will be over. His power is only in menacing the world, like the dog barking on a leash. If he crosses the line he loses it. The world had to start pressuring North Korea long time ago. It must be an effort of all countries in the UN to make North Korea abandon its political regime and reunite South Korea. There should be all sorts of blockades, but also food humanitarian help. There should be programs helping people leave NK, amnesty programs for all officials who give up etc. That sort of large scale global pressure, and it had to start 20 years ago, when they only started nuclear development. But Russia and mostly China aren't helping and make all the effort futile, instead using NK in political games. And now we have horrible gang of people with nuclear weapons, ready to terrorize the world.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#64

Post by SyneRyder » Thu, Sep 28, 2017, 6:14 PM UTC

oh_sigh wrote: post #39

thevardanian wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> What they actually want is to win, and emerge "victorious" in the face of US "oppression". You don't think seeing what happened to Gaddafi has anything to do with it? Libya got rid of their nuke development plans in 2003. If Libya had nukes, would the Libyan revolution have played out as it did? Do you think Kim Jong Un wants to get dragged around, anally raped and murdered by an angry mob? Probably not. > Perhaps…

I'm not sure why this was downvoted. North Korea officially cited Gaddafi and Hussein as motivations, as reported by The Telegraph back in 2016:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/12...

The BBC has run stories on it as well:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37321686

I'm sure it's just one of many motivations, but it does seem to be at least one of the motivating factors.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#65

Post by crdoconnor » Thu, Sep 28, 2017, 6:20 PM UTC

xir78 wrote: post #7

It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may just force a war...

>It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program.

The US with Trump at the helm seems perfectly happy to play the evil villain for him, throwing out telegenic threats of nuclear annihilation.

If Libya and Iraq prove anything it's not having a nuke program that's actually the greater risk, coz they'll just accuse you having one anyway...

>So he may just force a war

There's no point in doing that.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#66

Post by csomar » Thu, Sep 28, 2017, 6:20 PM UTC

ihsw2 wrote: post #26

MBCook wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In any war he’d be destroyed. NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them). KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father. I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (espec…

War? Please describe a scenario where Seoul doesn't get obliterated in the first 30 minutes of fireworks starting. If the DPRK doesn't achieve victory within 72 hours then yes of course they will be flattened, but nonetheless a DPRK victory is within the realm of possibility. Seoul may be reduced to a smoking heap, 20M dead and 10M having emigrated, and it will be a Pyrrhic victory, but it could be a victory nonethel…

Unless they throw nuclear/hydrogen bombs at Seoul. Then, no. You are over-estimating the power of artillery. At best, they can destroy some buildings, stop infrastructure from functioning for some time and kill people in the "thousands".

They can win as in they can get control of Seoul in the first 72hours. But then they are left with two choices: Backdown, or burn the city.

They can act fast because they have a geographical advantage. But that's about it. They win for 72hours and lose forever.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#67

Post by irrational » Thu, Sep 28, 2017, 6:21 PM UTC

thevardanian wrote: post #61

gumby wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor. I don't see why you say this. I wouldn't say they are especially competent, but they seem to have stayed in existence and played off various larger rivals successfully for 70 odd years.

Put another way. They're not going to play ball. Things cannot be solved diplomatically. Unless you call breaking all diplomatic promises, and developing nukes diplomacy. A rational actor is a nation that is predictable, and is willing to uphold their word, and agreements. If promises are broken, agreements torn a part I don't think that state is a "rational" actor.

So by that definition it seems that the USA would not be considered a rational actor since the head of the nation and the majority in congress are pretty much the opposite of predictable and willing to uphold their word.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#68

Post by myrandomcomment » Thu, Sep 28, 2017, 6:23 PM UTC

ckozlowski wrote: post #49

pdelbarba wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a hard time believing that the artillery would ever get the chance. There's maybe ten square miles where they could place artillery to successfully bombard Seoul. The entire area could easily be destroyed or remotely turned into a minefield by a cruise missile salvo or judicious application of artillery fire from a handful of batteries. I can't imagine there aren't plans in place to handle this concern very ra…

There are plans, yes. Lots of artillery, but it's aging, and as was pointed out earlier, the number of pieces they possess that can actually reach Seoul (the 203mm Koksan) is not very great. As soon as they open fire, the counter-battery game begins. You can be sure the allies have photographed and analyzed every strip of dirt along the DMZ, looking for prepared positions so they can anticipate where the guns are and…

There would be no day 3 or 4. The US knowns in detail every inch of the DMZ and the NK side. The US counter-battery is the best in the world. Every NK gun that fires would be bracket and destroyed in the 1st 30 minutes. After they are gone any other mapped location would be hit for good measure. The ROK Army and the US Army would start to roll right over the DMZ in the 1st hour. The Air Force and Army attack helicopters would wreck any armor the NK have very very quickly. The NK Army around the DMZ will collapse in the 1st day.

The only real issue we would have to worry about is NK using a nuke on Seoul or Tokyo. That is the major issue and it is why NK will never give up on their weapons. It is the only effect threat they have.

The US planners have sorted out the conventional war issues a long time ago. It is figuring out how to be 100% sure to remove the Nukes from the equation that has stopped us from just stepping on Kim like a roach and he knows that. That is the reason for the Nukes.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#69

Post by MertsA » Thu, Sep 28, 2017, 6:30 PM UTC

thevardanian wrote: post #30

gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> Perhaps China wants to annex NK.

That would seem to be a good thing, both for NK and the rest of us.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#70

Post by JustSomeNobody » Thu, Sep 28, 2017, 6:31 PM UTC

Most of his behavior is junk behavior and can be ignored. Obviously, if he does something harmful, that should not be ignored, but most everything else can and should be. Give him no response that he can use to put in front of his people; Nothing he can use to spin to show how powerful he is. Ignore it. Take the control away from him.

But always keep an eye out for him doing something even remotely good and praise him for that. Send over food or whatever else his country may need. Reward the behavior you want to see. Ignore the behavior you don't.