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China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

english.yonhapnews.co.kr

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Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#31

Post by dingaling »

ihsw2 wrote: post #26
MBCook wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In any war he’d be destroyed. NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them). KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father. I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (espec…

War? Please describe a scenario where Seoul doesn't get obliterated in the first 30 minutes of fireworks starting. If the DPRK doesn't achieve victory within 72 hours then yes of course they will be flattened, but nonetheless a DPRK victory is within the realm of possibility. Seoul may be reduced to a smoking heap, 20M dead and 10M having emigrated, and it will be a Pyrrhic victory, but it could be a victory nonethel…

Most North Korean artillery can't reach beyond the northern suburbs of Seoul.

It would cause mass casualties but by no means would the metropolis be 'obliterated'. There certainly wouldn't be 20 million dead unless everyone within the Greater Seoul area rushed north and threw themselves into the beaten-zone.

Assuming, of course, that the artillery troops follow their orders to fire.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#32

Post by wildmusings »

gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

No, it's all about him developing a nuclear deterrent that will guarantee the survival of his regime and its ability to extort aid from other countries.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#33

Post by mercer »

bwilliams18 wrote: post #21
MBCook wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In any war he’d be destroyed. NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them). KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father. I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (espec…

He'd be destroyed for sure, but he'd do a lot of damage as he goes. If he feels backed into a corner, why wouldn't he just take as many people with him as possible?

I'm curious... what would prevent him from something like plastic surgery and fleeing before things get too bad?

I'm just thinking that if I was a remotely rational dictator in his position, that's what I'd do right before 'showing them' and sending off a nuke or two that would probably/possibly lead to the obliteration of my own people.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#34

Post by pluma »

dforrestwilson wrote: post #22
bwilliams18 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He'd be destroyed for sure, but he'd do a lot of damage as he goes. If he feels backed into a corner, why wouldn't he just take as many people with him as possible?

Smart thing for China to do would be to offer him a cushy life in exile within China and replace.

And how would that work out exactly? What would his party do if he tried to pack up and leave? What would his military do? He has their support because he's an important figurehead (by virtue of his bloodline alone) and acts within the interests of those holding him in power.

If KJU tried to "go rogue" (especially if it meant betraying his own country) he'd be dead within a heartbeat. Accidents happen.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#35

Post by mercer »

vadman wrote: post #23
adamnemecek wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict. I don't think so. I think they would actually just let NK be nuked and maybe try to capture it afterwards.

The Pyongyang wind rose indicates that a lot of the fallout will be carried N, NW, and W -- i.e. to the Chinese territory. I doubt they would welcome nuking so close to their borders. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2... This leaves aside the question of how real these sanctions are, and how much China will keep helping NK behind the scenes.

That's something I hadn't considered, but it strikes me as the most reasonable approach, and (I might be entirely off on this one!) one befitting a culture that really understands the concept of honor/'saving face'.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#36

Post by MBCook »

pluma wrote: post #34
dforrestwilson wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smart thing for China to do would be to offer him a cushy life in exile within China and replace.

And how would that work out exactly? What would his party do if he tried to pack up and leave? What would his military do? He has their support because he's an important figurehead (by virtue of his bloodline alone) and acts within the interests of those holding him in power. If KJU tried to "go rogue" (especially if it meant betraying his own country) he'd be dead within a heartbeat. Accidents happen.

Or the government would fall and you’d end up with the humanitarian issues and possibly groups fighting over nuclear weapons.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#37

Post by Clubber »

thevardanian wrote: post #30
gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

>Perhaps China wants to annex NK.

This makes sense. NK is valuable to China as a buffer from Western countries. I'm surprised by this announcement simply because from that strategic perspective, it hurts China. If they plan on annexing, that makes more sense.

If they do, I'm sure we won't do much to stop them. We'll complain (us Westerners) but when the rubber meets the road, China is a better holder of that territory. Our only concern will be annexation of SK by China after NK, but I find that unlikely within the next 20 years.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#38

Post by JustAnotherPat »

gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

Almost certainly the Chinese alerted Kim of their plans and have talked it over with NK, so they probably have some sort of idea of what his response will be. Wouldn't surprise me if they hedged it in some way to make him feel more secure.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#39

Post by oh_sigh »

thevardanian wrote: post #30
gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> What they actually want is to win, and emerge "victorious" in the face of US "oppression".

You don't think seeing what happened to Gaddafi has anything to do with it? Libya got rid of their nuke development plans in 2003. If Libya had nukes, would the Libyan revolution have played out as it did? Do you think Kim Jong Un wants to get dragged around, anally raped and murdered by an angry mob? Probably not.

> Perhaps China wants to annex NK.

Not even close. China would rather NK sank into the sea than try to take 25M malnourished, undereducated more people.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#40

Post by devdoomari »

I've been wary about the Chinese gov's honesty after the economic reparations after THAAD deployment in Korea. (NK made nukes, so US deployed THAAD to defend against NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only 'weapon')

Moreover, the Chinese gov. has been sending NK refugees back to NK, even though it knows those people won't end well.

But anyway, +1 for Chinese gov. on this stance - I guess this might be a start for a morally better China, a real Big Man country.

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