Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

english.yonhapnews.co.kr

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 127 posts

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#21

Post by bwilliams18 »

MBCook wrote: post #14
xir78 wrote: post #7

It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may just force a war...

In any war he’d be destroyed. NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them). KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father. I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (espec…

He'd be destroyed for sure, but he'd do a lot of damage as he goes. If he feels backed into a corner, why wouldn't he just take as many people with him as possible?

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#22

Post by dforrestwilson »

bwilliams18 wrote: post #21
MBCook wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In any war he’d be destroyed. NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them). KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father. I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (espec…

He'd be destroyed for sure, but he'd do a lot of damage as he goes. If he feels backed into a corner, why wouldn't he just take as many people with him as possible?

Smart thing for China to do would be to offer him a cushy life in exile within China and replace.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#23

Post by vadman »

adamnemecek wrote: post #15
athenot wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them. At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.

> At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict. I don't think so. I think they would actually just let NK be nuked and maybe try to capture it afterwards.

The Pyongyang wind rose indicates that a lot of the fallout will be carried N, NW, and W -- i.e. to the Chinese territory. I doubt they would welcome nuking so close to their borders.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2...

This leaves aside the question of how real these sanctions are, and how much China will keep helping NK behind the scenes.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#24

Post by agumonkey »

xir78 wrote: post #7

It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may just force a war...

Trump populism seems rooted in the same goal. He needs to find something to grab the spotlight in a "positive" manner somehow.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#25

Post by zitterbewegung »

gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

If we pressure him Kim Jong Un will have to do something big to save face.

If we don't pressure him Kim Jong Un will have to do something be to get attention again.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#26

Post by ihsw2 »

MBCook wrote: post #14
xir78 wrote: post #7

It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may just force a war...

In any war he’d be destroyed. NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them). KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father. I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (espec…

War? Please describe a scenario where Seoul doesn't get obliterated in the first 30 minutes of fireworks starting.

If the DPRK doesn't achieve victory within 72 hours then yes of course they will be flattened, but nonetheless a DPRK victory is within the realm of possibility. Seoul may be reduced to a smoking heap, 20M dead and 10M having emigrated, and it will be a Pyrrhic victory, but it could be a victory nonetheless.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#27

Post by scriptkiddy »

dforrestwilson wrote: post #22
bwilliams18 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He'd be destroyed for sure, but he'd do a lot of damage as he goes. If he feels backed into a corner, why wouldn't he just take as many people with him as possible?

Smart thing for China to do would be to offer him a cushy life in exile within China and replace.

Agreed.

Sadly, for the sake of the world, we need to let KJU go unpunished.

Let him live out his days in a cushy mansion in China so that he doesn't start lobbing nukes everywhere.

I believe that to be the sanest course of action.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#29

Post by SimbaOnSteroids »

nrp wrote: post #20
girzel wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The enforcement of regulations in China is frighteningly efficient and effective, while the issue at hand is foremost in the minds of leaders . The government insists on retaining personal control over the country, and weakens the country's autonomous systems, which means it must spend some of a limited amount of attention to address any given issue. The moment the Eye of Sauron turns to look at a particular problem,…

On getting back to their old shenanigans, this is such a deeply rooted concept in China that it inspired a phrase that has remained in common use for 700 years. "Heaven is high and the emperor is far away" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tian_gao,_Huangdi_yuan

This concept was also expressed in that Whitey Bulgar movie, Black Mass.

>Remember Johnny, if no one sees it, its like it never even happened.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#30

Post by thevardanian »

gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late.

What else is their development of nuclear arms about? NK is a signatory of the NPT. They broke their promise. They've broken their promise multiple times. What they're looking for isn't a resolution to their situation, if anything they want to prolong it as long as possible. What they actually want is to win, and emerge "victorious" in the face of US "oppression".

Personally I think while China's interests are in maintaining a peaceful region, we must be wary of the relationship between NK and China. As there is a possibility of another game being played. Perhaps China wants to annex NK.

Post reply on HN