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Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

reuters.com

31–40 of 77 posts

Re: Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

#31
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people earn income in bitcoin or cryptocurrency and would consider the US dollar the poor investment or purchase. It is all a matter of perspective which simple wasn't apparent because there weren't options a decade ago.

...for some definitions of "many"

Literally dozens.

Re: Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

#32
To get live data from ICE--the exchange that withdrew the request--I'm currently paying a broker $120/month.

By comparison, just about every crypto exchange currently offers push feeds and historical data for free. In most cases you don't even need to sign in.

In some sense this is a measure of the immaturity of crypto markets.

But it's also a reminder that with main institutional players moving in, the barriers to entry will go way up.

We'll probably start to see more brokers and vendors and more consolidation/buyouts of the crypto exchanges.

Re: Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

#33
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah...$20 million market cap seems reasonable... smh...

There is utility in BTC thats why im putting 1-2$ value on it. 4000$ + per one BTC is pure insanity that will soon end badly for most "speculators". There is nothing new under the sun. Go back to the tulips and many booms and busts after. Its happening with BTC now. And just like all the others it will end the same.

Regarding tulip mania: The 1841 account is based upon a 1797 account which was sourced from "three anonymous pamphlets published in 1637 with an anti-speculative agenda" contemporary historians describe as "pieces of propaganda and a prodigious amount of plagiarism"

A historically honest account characterizes tulip mania as "no more than a meaningless winter drinking game, played by a plague-ridden population that made use of the vibrant tulip market."

So, assuming you are making a parallel between bitcoin and the fictional "propaganda" narrative of tulip mania: that comparison falls apart quickly, since (1) bulbs have an exponential growth rate. (2) the 3 year crash did not feature boom + bust cycles with steadily increasing bottoms. (3) Bulbs are not permanent or fungible. (4) short selling bulbs was illegal. (5) bitcoin is not subject to a decree by dutch parliament that futures contracts must be options with the buyer allowed to back out for a 3.5% fee.

The way that bitcoin mirrors tulip mania is that it is subject to "propaganda" with an "anti-speculative agenda", and that both took place during a rapid increase in the fiat money supply.

Re: Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

#34
post #32

To get live data from ICE--the exchange that withdrew the request--I'm currently paying a broker $120/month. By comparison, just about every crypto exchange currently offers push feeds and historical data for free. In most cases you don't even need to sign in. In some sense this is a measure of the immaturity of crypto markets. But it's also a reminder that with main institutional players moving in, the barriers to e…

I believe that as small exchanges are attempting to gain market share, giving away their data makes sense. They need to advertise the liquidity on their market in order to attract business. As exchanges get bigger, they reach a point where they think, "You know what, there are a lot of people who can't run their business without quotes from our exchange." And they start charging for data. And it's true, and furthermore, there are large financial institutions that are farily price insensitive. So they keep raising and raising prices. I don't have any hard evidence of what the end result is. Price equilibrium? Implosion of liquidity because nobody wants to buy their data any more?

Re: Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

#35
post #2

It says this fund is still traded at unofficial exchanges at prices a number of times higher than the value of the bitcoin it holds. The multiple layers of speculative mania involved in that boggles the mind.

Different prices at different trading venues speaks to the difficulty of moving funds quickly between them. When those hurdles are overcome, such a glaring arbitrage opportunity will disappear.

Would you consider it "speculative mania" if GBTC traded at a steep discount to all other exchanges?

Re: Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

#36
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the fact that you tout the "tulip mania" example shows that Bitcoin and markets are not the only things you know little about: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-t... > BTC is pure insanity that will soon end badly for most "speculators" > Its happening with BTC now Join the long line of people that have been saying this for almost 5 years and have been so soooooooooo wrong

Did you read the article you posted? Actual tulip mania, as described in the article, is much more similar to what is happening in bitcoin than the mythologized tulip mania. Frantic speculation in a narrow space with the market eventually crashing when speculative buyers are no longer willing to bid up?

What was going for tulips is that they had an "expiration date" bitcoin will probably take longer because there's no such thing.

To me bitcoin lost its appeal after transaction fees became high. The value is ok, since you can still use fractions of it, but current transaction fees and time to wait for confirmation makes it unsuitable for daily use. So in my mind bitcoin already failed what it supposed to provide.

Re: Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

#37
post #32

To get live data from ICE--the exchange that withdrew the request--I'm currently paying a broker $120/month. By comparison, just about every crypto exchange currently offers push feeds and historical data for free. In most cases you don't even need to sign in. In some sense this is a measure of the immaturity of crypto markets. But it's also a reminder that with main institutional players moving in, the barriers to e…

As a fund manager, I wish there was a data warehousing service I could pay for with a queryable by the minute (or better granularity) API that captured multiple exchanges across multiple countries for the top 50 coins.

I would pay a lot monthly for that product. Such a pro-level service doesn't exist at all yet.

Also there aren't any derivatives or futures to speak of yet (don't point out the existing futures markets, they have no volume).

Source: I run CryptoLotus, a crypto hedge fund.

Re: Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

#38
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah...$20 million market cap seems reasonable... smh...

There is utility in BTC thats why im putting 1-2$ value on it. 4000$ + per one BTC is pure insanity that will soon end badly for most "speculators". There is nothing new under the sun. Go back to the tulips and many booms and busts after. Its happening with BTC now. And just like all the others it will end the same.

The first time I saw someone refer to Bitcoin as tulips was in 2011 when I started in the space. I'm sure others labeled it as such as soon as it started trading in 2010 at $0.06.

Re: Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

#39
post #6

RIP bitcoin. Current valuation is $4142.99 higher than it should be.. Im thinking we will get there within a couple of years. $1-2 seems about right per 1 BTC.

The $1 valuation strikes me as way more arbitrary than $4k. What features mean that it should be near USD parity? It should either be above or below the USD based on >>insert valuation technique hereIf it should somehow land on parity with fiat currency then maybe it should be a weighted mean of the global currencies but $1-2 seems incredibly arbitrary.

Re: Bitcoin blow as fund drops U.S. exchange application

#40
post #2

It says this fund is still traded at unofficial exchanges at prices a number of times higher than the value of the bitcoin it holds. The multiple layers of speculative mania involved in that boggles the mind.

Different prices at different trading venues speaks to the difficulty of moving funds quickly between them. When those hurdles are overcome, such a glaring arbitrage opportunity will disappear. Would you consider it "speculative mania" if GBTC traded at a steep discount to all other exchanges?

You're probably correct, but...

>Would you consider it "speculative mania" if GBTC traded at a steep discount to all other exchanges?

This is as shallow an argument as "If Jimmy broke his leg getting hit by a car, would you say I got hit by a car if I broke my leg?"

If you were also playing in traffic, then yeah.

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