Earlier quoted context omitted.
99% of Bitcoins are being held by people expecting to sell it to someone else for more than they bought it for. That doesn't seem to be changing. You just have to do a calculation involving the number of people on the planet to figure out when the supply of new suckers runs dry and the price crashes.
If more vendors would take BTC, I would gladly buy things using said BTC. I would rather do that than convert to cash and then buy.
Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
111–120 of 131 posts
Re: Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure but it’s also naive to think that banks aren’t trying to fuck you over.
Sure but it's also naive to think that exchanges, the bitcoin central bank of tethers, blockstream, market manipulators, dev teams with premined supplies, and early adopters who spent $100 to own 26% of total supply aren't trying to fuck you over.
Remember, it’s not money laundering, it’s tumbling. Big difference. It’s not wealth inequality, it’s early adoption. Big, big difference. Entirely different concepts.
Re: Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
#113Currently, it costs about 9MWh per BTC, or about $1000 in electricity per bitcoin to mine on a pretty efficient S9 antminer. S9s currently go for about $2/Watt and require about 100 J/TH and weigh, I don't know, maybe 1kg per kilowatt (or 1000W/kg).
Solar modules are about 30 cents per watt on the spot market, produce about 100W/kg (if weight optimized, i.e. not such a thick aluminum frame). Since all the heat must be dumped into space at the ASIC's operating temperature, radiators are about 100W/kg and probably cost as much as solar modules ($0.30/W) if mass produced.
So 1000W of mining capacity would weigh 21 kg and cost $2000+$300+$300= $2600. To launch 21kg at $100/kg to GSO (this is an incredibly low cost, but could be achieved with SpaceX's or Blue Origin's long-term ITS/BFR or New Armstrong rockets) would cost about $2100. So a total of about $4.7/W.
Assuming the lifetime of that whole thing is about 12 years (a reasonable time for a risk-free doubling of an investment), that's about 12 BTC, or about $47,000 at today's prices, or a factor of 10 return.
(Today's BTC returns ~40 cents per kWh invested, this scheme would break-even at about 4 cents per kWh generated.)
...but: 1) There's a whole bunch of glue, like a network link and spacecraft subsystems that must be included as well as spacecraft processing.
2) Moore's Law in the strict sense is over, but progress still continues.
3) ASIC improvement is possible.
4) We don't have Musk's or Bezos' huge reusable rockets quite yet.
5) If return was this well-proven, you'd likely have a bunch of competition from even cheaper sources of energy.
6) I still think Bitcoin is far too volatile and speculative to justify this kind of investment. Given the reduction in mining rate, if you knew Bitcoin would be able to justify this kind of investment over decades, then you'd probably be better off just buying a bunch of BTC right now and holding it.
But maybe the future of cryptocurrency will eventually enable a less volatile and more proven return, making stuff like this worth investing in. I hope so.
Re: Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
Shh, half the fun of cryptocurrency threads is watching its proponents re-learn every single harsh lesson banking and financial industries have learned over the past couple hundred years! It turns out a lot of regulations and whatnot involved with Fiat™ don't just exist for arbitrary reasons.
Sure but it’s also naive to think that banks aren’t trying to fuck you over.
Re: Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your product simply isn't valuable if the world wouldn't miss it if it disappeared over night. Outside of keeping money away from legislation what value does crypto currencies have that would be missed?
Try transferring $1 million (or hell, even simply more than $10K) of legitimate cash to another country. With USD you have to jump through hoops. With BTC, it's less than an hour to clear and the transaction fee is peanuts. BTC has properties of physical cash and credit/debit cards. That's valuable.
Re: Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
#116This seems like a decent place to ask: What is the most legit and safe method for creating a wallet and just buying a bit of Bitcoin? I wouldn't mind being able to drop a couple hundred on it and seeing where it goes, but it's hard to trust websites/subreddits that look like posts were written by nerdy 15 year olds.
Coinbase is the only answer here, and it makes me frustrated to still see the "buy a hardware wallet" recommendations. I recently had my hardware wallet (a trezor, which is the nicest one) fail during a firmware update. Now, obviously I have a backup of my seed, but for those few minutes that backup became a VERY expensive little widget. When I travel, I have to worry about where my backups are stored. Storing them i…
I'm sure people who were using Mt Gox felt the same way. Part of the equation is you're betting you place your own interests at a higher priority than the people who run Coinbase. Which is almost certainly true.
Re: Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
0. Purchase a hardware wallet Pro-tip: Go for a Ledger Nano S ( https://www.ledgerwallet.com/products/12-ledger-nano-s ), it is (IMO) the best hardware wallet available. Had a terrific experience using it, it is a genuinely great product. 1. Pick a high-profile exchange Pro-tip: I had an absolutely terrible experience with Coinbase. And a far better one with GEMINI (Although I have issues that are +30 days old still…
Absolutely do not do this unless you are buying a very small amount of coins as an exploratory thing into bitcoin, and won't worry about losing them if you mess up your opsec.
I'm really curious to hear what's the rationale behind your post. Please elaborate.
Re: Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure but it’s also naive to think that banks aren’t trying to fuck you over.
And surely, nobody in the basically unregulated cryptocurrency world has ever done that, right? Bad actors are bad actors, and it’s disingenuous to point at some and ignore others.
Said cryptobank is now allegedly using fake orders to buy up significant amounts of BTC (recently a 50,000 BTC order [2]) during market crashes.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6xpddt/as_20m_more_tet...
[2] https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/908718464671641602
Re: Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
By the very definition of a pyramid scheme, it can't be one. Who's behind the sceme? And if you say Satoshi, you should think about what stocks are.
Stocks have underlying value even if they could no longer be traded, in other words, non-zero use value, in the form of dividends. What is bitcoin's use value? It doesn't even have commodity applications like gold.
1000 years ago it was cotton instead of gold
Re: Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
Coinbase is the only answer here, and it makes me frustrated to still see the "buy a hardware wallet" recommendations. I recently had my hardware wallet (a trezor, which is the nicest one) fail during a firmware update. Now, obviously I have a backup of my seed, but for those few minutes that backup became a VERY expensive little widget. When I travel, I have to worry about where my backups are stored. Storing them i…
>If I have a hardware wallet, I'm essentially betting that I am better at opsec than coinbase, a >$1billion company who devotes a non-trivial amount of resources to opsec. I'm sure people who were using Mt Gox felt the same way. Part of the equation is you're betting you place your own interests at a higher priority than the people who run Coinbase. Which is almost certainly true.
https://support.coinbase.com/customer/en/portal/topics/79436...