Earlier quoted context omitted.
Typical advice is if you're older, say within 10 years of retirement push towards treasury bonds, commodities etc. (ultra safe investments). If you're young, you can try to time it, but even if you screw-up just hold through the crash and it'll recover in a couple of years. Do some more research, you don't want to put stock in random internet comments... including mine!
>you don't want to put stock in random internet comments... including mine Anybody got the ticker for the Internet Comments ETF?
Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
41–50 of 70 posts
Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
#42Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
The scale of software tool utility is pretty much unparalleled by traditional tools. Traditional tools such as livestock and machines require breeding, mining... some sort of "manufacturing" process. Okay, software has manufacturing cost too, but typically only once to create, and once to maintain. Imagine if you could dynamically spawn livestock without the overhead of mining, breeding, and trading. The jobs that so…
Electrification was far more significant and far-reaching, occurred on a similarly quick timescale, and led to a massive boom in productivity across the board. If you want to predict how software and the computerization of everything will pan out then electrification is a better example to consider.
The revolutions that occurred in electrification (up to and including sophisticated home appliances), mass production (clothing, food, shelter), and transportation (from horses to cars) brought a lot more people into the workforce and into the same connected market economy. Prior to these inventions, people were spread out and almost entirely disconnected from a shared economy: in the 1870s about 75% of American families were rural and very time-intensively grew/raised most of what they needed to survive themselves. Over the next hundred or so years a bunch of wonderful inventions moved everyone together into the same very tightly-connected market economy, and reduced non-leisure time commitments at home by 80%+ (notably allowing women to join and remain in the workforce in greater numbers). There is a strong argument that this connective effort is what led to massive GDP growth - that these were a series of "one trick" ponies, by definition - and that while there are amazing inventions on the horizon, no doubt, they will have much more impact on quality of life than on traditional GDP and productivity, at least in terms of Wall Street's expectations. Even if autonomous robots come and reduce non-leisure domestic commitments to absolute zero, it wouldn't be nearly as impactful as the advancements that we've already experienced, from a productivity standpoint. I tend to agree that "it's different this time" is one of the most dangerous phrases in the English language but at some point, maybe it's true.
Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
#44Great, now I'm scared. What can I do? Shall I learn mandarin and go to China too?
Given that the current practice for anyone with money in China is to get that money out of China and converted to foreign currency as quickly as possible... I'd counsel against it.
Learn Mandarin and go to / stay on the west coast, where the majority of that extracted Chinese money is going
Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
#45The entirety of his supporting evidence: > We’ve had financial problems in America — let’s use America — every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one. Well I'm certainly convinced!
It's why I won't fly Qantas Airways.
Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
Given that the current practice for anyone with money in China is to get that money out of China and converted to foreign currency as quickly as possible... I'd counsel against it.
Learn Mandarin and go to / stay on the west coast, where the majority of that extracted Chinese money is going
Better get a real estate license while you're at it, since that's where the extracted money ends up.
Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
#472011: 100% Chance of Crisis, Worse Than 2008: Jim Rogers 2012: Jim Rogers: It’s Going To Get Really “Bad After The Next Election” 2013: Jim Rogers Warns: “You Better Run for the Hills!” 2014: JIM ROGERS – Sell Everything & Run For Your Lives 2015: Jim Rogers: “We’re Overdue” for a Stock Market Crash 2016: $68 TRILLION “BIBLICAL CRASH” Dead Ahead? Jim Rogers Issues a DIRE WARNING 2017: THE BOTTOM LINE: Legendary inves…
Boy who cried 'wolf'...
Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
#482011: 100% Chance of Crisis, Worse Than 2008: Jim Rogers 2012: Jim Rogers: It’s Going To Get Really “Bad After The Next Election” 2013: Jim Rogers Warns: “You Better Run for the Hills!” 2014: JIM ROGERS – Sell Everything & Run For Your Lives 2015: Jim Rogers: “We’re Overdue” for a Stock Market Crash 2016: $68 TRILLION “BIBLICAL CRASH” Dead Ahead? Jim Rogers Issues a DIRE WARNING 2017: THE BOTTOM LINE: Legendary inves…
P(economy(t+1) > economy(t)) ~ 1
∫economy(t) dt | 0..t + E[economy(t+1)] absence of evidence (not proven correct yet) This just shows that for 6 years he was not yet right, not that he's a 'broken clock', implying he isn't adapting to evidence (, which, I don't know and may be true -- but I can't say either way).
He can't claim anything beyond what's been observed, but neither can we claim the prediction (or any) not being yet observed as suggesting it'll never happen, regardless of how clickbait-y it can be packaged and whatever the intentions are behind that decision..
Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
#49The market will remain irrational longer than he will remain solvent (if in fact he is even playing the contrarian game)
Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
#50He would be a lot more credible if he could explain what will cause a crash. Basically, he is just betting on a crash every year for whatever reason. Doubtlessly, he is selling something.
He kind of did. He expects the market to become a bubble. Bubbles always crash.
What is a bubble? Here's my definition: A bubble is an asset going up because it's been going up. It works like this: Something (the stock market, say) looks good because of fundamentals: because earnings are up, or because interest rates are down, or whatever. People take note: Hey, the stock market looks good. So people buy stocks, so stocks go up. Then more people take note: Hey, the stock market's going up. So more people buy stocks, because they want to own stuff that's going up. So stocks go up more. So more people buy stocks. That's the start of a bubble.
But it doesn't get truly dangerous until people are buying stocks with borrowed money. Then a drop means that people sell in a panic, because they can't take a loss, so the price drops more, so more people sell in a panic, and so on. And the people that lose money, lost (at least in part) borrowed money, which means that it can ruin not just the borrower, but also the lender.
Now: Are stocks currently in this territory? My impression is no, not yet, but I don't know for sure. Is there a good measure of how much borrowed money is invested in the stock market?