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Basic Income Research Proposal

basicincome.ycr.org

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Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#201

Post by aschampion »

godelski wrote: post #186
vasco wrote: post #28

I would speculate that any end date on this scenario will invalidate results. What a person does if it is guaranteed a job for life vs 5 years is wildly different, as you'll need to make sure when those 5 years are up, you'll be ready to enter the job market again, etc. I believe the same will happen with basic income. If we want to study where people gravitate to more fulfilling jobs, feel happier and so on, you nee…

I think you overestimate how much the average person prepares for the future. Look at the number of people who have emergency funds. 62% of Americans have So with this time frame I believe initial ideas of "I'm going to put this to savings" will quickly disappear. Five years is a pretty long time, especially when considering at how bad humans are at preparing for the future. What I think will be interesting is to see…

The 60 percentile income is < $46k. That people have little emergency funds on incomes less than this is largely explained away by necessary expenses. 20% have no savings -- the 20 percentile income is $17k. Show me a net savings budget on $17k.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#202

Post by gnaritas »

Falell wrote: post #183
staunch wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pensions are a great use-case for smart contracts. I would feel much safer having my retirement assured by a blockchain than a bureaucrat.

How would this work? As I understand it pensions are almost never fully funded when they begin because the costs would be prohibitive. Can a smart contract guarantee that funds that are not available now will be made available at a later date?

It wouldn't work, almost nothing people want to do with smart contract can actually work because those people tend not to actually understand what a smart contract is or what it can actually do and what it can't do. Virtually every smart contract proposal is DOA due to a misunderstanding of their nature.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#203

Post by maxxxxx »

vasco wrote: post #28

I would speculate that any end date on this scenario will invalidate results. What a person does if it is guaranteed a job for life vs 5 years is wildly different, as you'll need to make sure when those 5 years are up, you'll be ready to enter the job market again, etc. I believe the same will happen with basic income. If we want to study where people gravitate to more fulfilling jobs, feel happier and so on, you nee…

You also have to look at the effect of UBI over generations. Children growing up with UBI may never see people close to them who do actual work. I once had a summer job at a welfare/employment agency. A lot of the people who received welfare in the second or third generation often had no idea how a job works. They were late all the time or just didn't show up for a week. The social worker had to explain to them how a job works.

I don't blame them. They just never had seen what people who have a job do. When I grew up everybody close to me was working so I could observe how a job works. And people who grow up around high-powered people like CEOs know how being a CEO works.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#204

Post by [deleted] »

jacalata wrote: post #114
CapsAdmin wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This assumes people will enjoy a 5 year vacation though. In Norway if you're chronically disabled you can apply for something that seems very similar to basic income. I'm in that system and in my experience most of the people I know in this system are bored. It could be because all their friends are working so it's difficult to meet new people, there's also that this system is for disabled people and people with ment…

This doesn't assume they'll take a 5 year vacation at all. It's the difference between deciding to become an artist because you know you'll never worry about money, and deciding to study accounting so you can eventually have an accounting job you don't care about that will support your evening art practice.

[deleted]

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#205

Post by billmalarky »

Helmet wrote: post #174
billmalarky wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arbitrarily raising wages for everyone is the same as increasing the money supply without increasing the underlying value it represents (which causes inflation). UBI does not do this. It doesn't "increase" the amount of money floating around, it simply redistributes a portion of the created wealth from one population (the rich) to the total population. UBI money isn't pulled out of thin air, it's taken from one group…

Sure, what you're describing is the quantity theory of money, but there are other reasons why you could see inflation given a universal income, depending on the circumstances. If you consider the velocity of money, you will almost certainly see inflation on consumer goods if the money to be redistributed would have otherwise just sat in some rich guys's savings account. There are also inflation expectation to conside…

I expect prices to change in order to reflect the new system, but I think people's "sky is falling" concerns about the price of consumer goods shooting up is way off base and sensationalist.

UBI alone simply won't provide enough discretionary income to cause sharp increases in demand of goods. Not to mention, the type of goods that a basic income affords are those that are already scaled out and are easily scaled out - ramping up supply would happen relatively quickly in the unlikely scenario that demand for these goods does go up drastically.

As I've repeatedly said in other comments, I believe demand for these simple goods will stay relatively flat since they are such fundamental necessities people are already consuming them and won't necessarily increase demand significantly (UBI won't cause demand for toilet paper to go up significantly).

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#206

Post by [deleted] »

eric_b wrote: post #92
liquidise wrote: post #30

One factor that would be lost in a controlled, basic income test is the inflation effect. Implemented on a national scale, cost inflation of basic consumer needs is a near certainty. On a controlled test of 1000 people inflation would be nearly impossible to achieve without localizing the test to an absurd degree. I could see this test could serving as a dataset for calculating anticipated inflation rates on a nation…

Yep, basic consumer staple price inflation is something I never see addressed with any satisfaction when people are talking about UBI. Housing prices and rent will assuredly rise proportionally to the basic income amount if this were to be implemented nationally, so wouldn't pumping all this money in basically just have the effect of increasing inequality?

[deleted]

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#207

Post by Matumio »

neilwilson wrote: post #74

The design is flawed from the start. If you have any sort of income guarantee in a system where (i) there are others in the same currency area who don't receive the income (ii) the amount is insufficient to live on (iii) there are insufficient jobs overall in the economy for all that want them (iv) it isn't permanent then all you actually have is a tax credit system with a different withdrawal mechanism. https://medi…

The mandatory Milton Friedman quote:

At one of our dinners, Milton recalled travelling to an Asian country in the 1960s and visiting a worksite where a new canal was being built. He was shocked to see that, instead of modern tractors and earth movers, the workers had shovels. He asked why there were so few machines. The government bureaucrat explained: “You don’t understand. This is a jobs program.” To which Milton replied: “Oh, I thought you were trying to build a canal. If it’s jobs you want, then you should give these workers spoons, not shovels.”

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#208

Post by bduerst »

TCM wrote: post #139
bduerst wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is circular logic. In order for BI to become a reality, it first must be embraced. In order for BI to be embraced, it must first be a world where BI is a reality. You keep referencing ACA, but there is currently a new bill to repeal it: https://www.lgraham.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/06822f49-...

The argument from the parent posts rely on ACA being repealed already. If the ACA does get repealed then the above arguments hold but this hasn't happened yet.

My point is that bringing up the ACA repeal is moot, either way, because it's repeal is still active and not finished.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#209

Post by twoodfin »

zanny wrote: post #178
moxious wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same amount? No adjustment for San Francisco vs. nowheresville, Idaho?

Certainly not. Any UBI policy has to be set for a universal basic standard of living in a contiguous zone of free movement. US citizens can live anywhere in the US - UBI reverses the current bubble of housing prices that is concentrating people in cities that then resist increasing density and thus just drives property values to infinity. It lets people who don't want to live there the option to move elsewhere that i…

This is, by the way, another reason UBI is a Utopian fantasy: It’s impossible to imagine an elected government resisting the temptation to fiddle with the formula to achieve policy goals and reward constituents, just like today’s tax code.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#210

Post by greedo »

awjr wrote: post #184
cisanti wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what about border policy? You can't have open border policy + UBI together... I mean why not try to come to America then. I would I come if I had a chance to get UBI and live there, and millions, millions of others. Would the system still work?

I think you mis-understand UBI. UBI enables 'survival' within the country. It will just about pay for a room and basic food. You want to eat steak, you will need to get a job.

Good luck restricting that from future generations who will vote for more largesse...
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