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Bitcoin has died 166 times, so far

99bitcoins.com

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Re: Bitcoin has died 166 times, so far

#61

Post by dreit1 »

zizek23 wrote: post #55
Laforet wrote: post #12

And what is the point? Does the price prove that bitcoin has not failed? To me, bitcoin died sometime in 2013 when mining became hopelessly centralised, breaking the economic and security models Satoshi had set forth. The bitcoin thereafter has been a soulness Frankenstein animated by a mixture of ego, greed, and hubris. I don't want to make any predictions, but when the crash comes it will be over before you knew it…

Bitcoin can't die as it never succeeded. All the disingenuous claims made by early adopters have fallen through. Decentralization, control, anonymity, easy transactions, transactions costs, currency? How can something that has no use have value? Proponents continue to build castles and waste electricity hoping people bite so they can profit. But the game is over. Money is a social tool based on consensus, and today d…

Because this supposed "law and accountability" led to things like the 2008 financial crisis. Didn't seem like there was much accountability then, so why should I trust that money supply? I know exactly what is going to happen to the bitcoin money supply, it's written in the code. Furthermore, hard forks prove that if you don't like the network, then you can leave and retain value. You can't leave the dollar without geographically moving to another location

Re: Bitcoin has died 166 times, so far

#63

Post by speedplane »

WheelsAtLarge wrote: post #43

The reality is that bitcoin has the first mover advantage. Any other virtual currency has a big mountain to climb to catch up to it. 100 years from now bitcoin will be around since there is no one entity that defines it and control it. What the community has shown is that they are willing to adapt to the situation. Right now bitcoin has problems but as time moves the code will be modified. What's happening now is tha…

> What's happening now is that bitcoin is being locked into people's mind as a currency with real value.

I'm not certain that's true. Most of the trading in bitcoin is based on speculation that it'll rise in value, and secondly, that'll become more commonplace. Currently, it's not a useful (or usable) form of currency for the vast majority of the planet. So there's no value backing it (yet).

The true test is in X many years, whether BitCoin will be used as actual currency, in which case the value will keep climbing, or whether it'll remain a speculative investment, in which case it'll crash.

I learned about bitcoin when it was less than a dollar, and I'd love to invest, but it's just gambling.

Re: Bitcoin has died 166 times, so far

#64

Post by ship_it »

paxpelus wrote: post #59

Many people on HN are so negative in bitcoin that it seems that they are focused on the tree instead of the forest. This technology can solve the main problem human society faces and this is corruption. Human greed is what keeps bitcoin alive but this is not a bug, it is a feature.

To be honest, Bitcoin in no way does solve corruption. Actually, Bitcoin in current state can only increase corruption in society by giving a sense of anonymity. Political corruption on other hand, might be solved through it, but thats the case we are left to see.

Re: Bitcoin has died 166 times, so far

#65

Post by vinchuco »

The sun has risen at least 166 times already, but it is not proof that the sun will rise tomorrow.

My point is not to confirm or deny the bear or the bull, but to point out this is simply noise.

When are market news reliable indicators of supply and demand?

Re: Bitcoin has died 166 times, so far

#66

Post by nkkollaw »

steeleduncan wrote: post #27

One of the early obituaries on that list mentions that the finite supply of bitcoins, combined with lost crypto keys and hoarding will eventually lead to a situation where there aren't enough coins for it to be a viable currency. Clearly, in that situation you can subdivide coins as far as required, so it isn't a risk to bitcoin as such. However, I have often wondered if there is any estimate of the "effective supply…

I bet a lot of people lose their private key, but I bet that if there's anything in your wallet you'll be careful.

So, there are probably a lot of private keys that get lost, but not a lot of bitcoins.

Re: Bitcoin has died 166 times, so far

#67

Post by speedplane »

Nition wrote: post #36
zdkl wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand how the issue you're describing is specific to bitcoin. Consider that wealth in the real world also accumulates in a non gaussian distribution.

I think the comment is saying that in other currencies, if your currency's total value increases, usually more money is printed to keep the value reasonable. Even with other cryptocurrencies, Ripple for instance has a large unallocated holding of coins that they're meant to siphon out into the market to keep the value per coin under control. Whereas with bitcoin you can hold onto the same amount of money and if more…

> The more the value continues to increase, the better it seems as an investment, and the more people lean towards holding instead of spending.

This is called currency "deflation" (the opposite of inflation), and it's one of the key things that central banks try to control. If a currency is gaining value rapidly, then it makes more sense for people to hold onto it, no one buys anything, and the economy drives to a halt. In these cases, central banks may print money to lower the value of the currency.

The effects of how it would play out with Bitcoin are probably different, as it isn't close to being universal, it travels across political borders, no single economy relies on it, and it's under no control. Sounds like an Econ PhD thesis.

Re: Bitcoin has died 166 times, so far

#68

Post by speedplane »

krzat wrote: post #58
lokedhs wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the greater problem that the total market cap of bitcoin is always going to be 22 million? In other words, the single bitcoin I own will always be worth 1/22M of the entire market cap, regardless of how much it's used. And I only own one. There are lost of people out there who owns thousands of bitcoins. 1000 bitcoins is 1/22k of the entire market cap. How could this be sustainable?

Exactly. It looks like a Ponzi scheme for early miners to get rich.

I was an early miner, got a few, started when it was less than a dollar, and cashed in when it was low hundreds. I don't think anyone knew it was gonna explode 5000X or more. Every early miner or bitcoin developer regrets they didn't buy more, mine more, or hold on to it for longer.

But the truth is that at this point, it's still mostly gambling. The use-cases for BitCoin are numerous, but I don't see many in place just yet. Right now, the value is based solely on speculation.

Re: Bitcoin has died 166 times, so far

#70

Post by ftw45 »

No, it didn't die and it won't die anytime soon. But dollars, Euro's and all other physical currencies are about to die(soon). Why? Because just like the change from gold and silver coins to almost worthless nickel, this type of currency creates a whole new universe of possibilities.

With nickel and paper money, banks can create as much cash as they like, it's virtual value, not real. Crypto currency is just like that, but more secure and not (yet) controlled by the banks. And again you see the allegations that crypto would be a pyramid scheme etc.. Do people notice that our actual economy/financial-system is a very proven pyramid scheme? All money flows to the rich. And especially those people in power now, are getting a little nervous seeing they might lose some control.

Crypto currencies can be a boon for humanity, unless governments are going to criminalize it and only allow banks to use the technology.

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