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China Bans Bitcoin Executives from Leaving Country, Miners “Preparing for Worst”

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Re: China Bans Bitcoin Executives from Leaving Country, Miners “Preparing for Worst”

#61

What's interesting to me is that no amount of bad news appears to affect the price of BTC. I'm not a professional or amateur trader (I've got no position on BTC at all) but the price fluctuations really seem dominated by sentiment over any sort of fundamentals.

Well it crashed hard when rumors got serious, like $4k to $3300, but came back within like a week

Re: China Bans Bitcoin Executives from Leaving Country, Miners “Preparing for Worst”

#62

What's interesting to me is that no amount of bad news appears to affect the price of BTC. I'm not a professional or amateur trader (I've got no position on BTC at all) but the price fluctuations really seem dominated by sentiment over any sort of fundamentals.

The same holds true for most securities. Markets are efficient, and news is quickly priced in -- often before it's published news.

How often have you read "Company XYZ beat estimates -- stock price falls?"

Re: China Bans Bitcoin Executives from Leaving Country, Miners “Preparing for Worst”

#63
post #37

Is it just me or has China been doing some crazy regulatory stuff recently. Idk if there's an overall mosaic I'm missing or if these are unrelated.

Yes there has recently been : - promise to block all VPN services from accessing blocked website - law to hold chat group owners responsible to what the members say (controverse political talk or gambling for example can lead to arrests) - most of casual barbecue that were held in the streets last summer have been forced to close this year in my area - tightening and more scrutinity on visa applications for foreigner…

You mean to tell me, if I go visit China they may _force_ me to do a drug test?

Re: China Bans Bitcoin Executives from Leaving Country, Miners “Preparing for Worst”

#65

What's interesting to me is that no amount of bad news appears to affect the price of BTC. I'm not a professional or amateur trader (I've got no position on BTC at all) but the price fluctuations really seem dominated by sentiment over any sort of fundamentals.

It's a 24/7 market; the price responds a lot faster than other markets. So looking at day-over-day price isn't a good gauge. Additionally, by the time a story is known at large, it's usually been known for a bit among those who follow Bitcoin, so you'll see it already priced in.

Are you sure? Doesn't the need to mine block slow down transaction to a bare maximum per block?

And if miners in china close operations won't time between block increase?

Thus maybe BTC is actually responding slower than other market... what do you think?

I'm by far not a keychain expert so I will gladly be corrected if I'm wrong.

Re: China Bans Bitcoin Executives from Leaving Country, Miners “Preparing for Worst”

#66
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends if you obtained your funds legally or illegally? With former you are betting against Chinese economy with latter you are looking to leave less traces of activities that got you those funds.

That's not such a strong distinction, I think. I mean, "legally" and "illegally" are defined by the State. And there's plenty opportunity for selective/surprise enforcement.

Yeah but that's what laundering is. Making money that would be designated dirty by the state look clean.

This is more of just hiding it outright, I think?

Re: China Bans Bitcoin Executives from Leaving Country, Miners “Preparing for Worst”

#67
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a 24/7 market; the price responds a lot faster than other markets. So looking at day-over-day price isn't a good gauge. Additionally, by the time a story is known at large, it's usually been known for a bit among those who follow Bitcoin, so you'll see it already priced in.

Are you sure? Doesn't the need to mine block slow down transaction to a bare maximum per block? And if miners in china close operations won't time between block increase? Thus maybe BTC is actually responding slower than other market... what do you think? I'm by far not a keychain expert so I will gladly be corrected if I'm wrong.

I'm not sure which of us has misunderstood something, but I don't see why the speed of mining would affect the reaction time of the market.

Re: China Bans Bitcoin Executives from Leaving Country, Miners “Preparing for Worst”

#68

China's fast descent into totalitarianism is fascinating and scary. One can easily replace 'bitcoin executives' with 'foreign executives' or 'foreign assets' and see where this is going. I wonder if those companies that choose to outsource all the jobs in their country to China realized what they've done.

I think people tend to gloss over the fact that China has a population of more than 1.4 billion people in a land area that's slightly smaller than the US, multiple territories in outright revolt, ongoing territorial conflict, some cities that are approaching inhospitability due to environmental damage, and our increasingly aggressive nation is something less than friendly with them.

I think one thing causing the apparent increase in political discontent in the US is the increasing metaphorical distance between congress and the people. Now imagine if you increased our population by more than 400%, had Hawaii declaring independence, and various states trying to separate either to go completely independent or join Mexico or Canada. And now of imagine that a coalition of China, Russia, Iran and other unfriendly nations were constantly posturing towards an invasion of Mexico which would put them right at our doorstep while their motherland remains far out of reach.

I'm in no way defending China, but I think it's safe to say that the level of authoritarianism we would respond with if we hit even a fraction of the issues they're facing would be unlike anything the world has ever seen. Our current political systems and technologies, regardless of specific political ideology, do not scale well.

That said there is one macabre issue that benefits China. About 50 years ago Chinese were starving to death by the tens of millions. While perhaps controversial, I think contentedness paradoxically breeds discontent. Consider in the US that much of the political discontent is heavily centered at some of the most privileged areas in the nation. We can wax poetic about justice and the nuance of social interaction. People struggling to just get by have more immediate issues to deal with. China's successful industrialization of their nation is already producing an increasingly large contented class to whom the struggles China has had are as personally familiar to them as the lynchings or Cold War of US history are to us. That newfounded contented class is likely to spark discontent towards the very actions that provided their luxury - and China will have to manage that somehow.

Re: China Bans Bitcoin Executives from Leaving Country, Miners “Preparing for Worst”

#69
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN like Bitcoin because it is cool. HN hates government intervention in general. The outcome is pretty predictable.

HN has a fair amount of "Bitcoin is overvalued" people as well. Note that the type of thread to reach the top of HN tends to be something groundbreaking, which will skew the discussion to the extremes. Also, the comment you are responding to complained about all of three pro-bitcoin comments (Two top level) that were all posted less than 3 minutes before his. This seems a little unfair to me as it's possible that thi…

Agree. HN has a sizeable left-leaning and pro-state/pro-fiat population.

Re: China Bans Bitcoin Executives from Leaving Country, Miners “Preparing for Worst”

#70
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China has exchange controls Bitcoin is irrelevant, compared to still-tolerated and massively-more voluminous alternatives, for capital controls. This is a red herring. Bitcoin was fine until ICO promoters started pilfering from the masses. In any case, China is currently loosening its capital controls [1]. This isn’t a problem that can be constrained to China. China is just reacting first. The rebranding of this ac…

How is it irrelevant? You can buy Bitcoin with yuan, transfer the bitcoin to a foreign exchange, and then buy another currency like the US dollar with the bitcoin, thereby circumventing capital controls.

How do you buy the bitcoins without the state tracking you? FYI the US is doing that also, you cannot buy on coinbase without providing ID... they want to be able to track big buyers.
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