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US solar plant costs fall another 30 per cent in one year

reneweconomy.com.au

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Re: US solar plant costs fall another 30 per cent in one year

#11

Post by future1979 »

taneq wrote: post #5
mc32 wrote: post #2

On the one hand it's great to get Solar below cost _at someone else's_ expense (Chinese over producing manufacturers), on the other hand I'd prefer that some of our own PV mfgs remain afloat. Ultimately the goal is to wean off of fossil fuels, but if all our R&D is unprofitable we may miss some breakthroughs.

"Over-producing" isn't really a thing. You're complaining about supply outstripping demand causing prices to fall - that's always going to happen with any mass produced goods. It sounds like the real issue is that doing R&D in the U.S. is uncompetitively expensive compared to doing the same work in China.

Err ... not according to Econ 101. A rational producer in a perfectly competitive market supplies just enough to clear the market. When people distort markets with subsidies, etc. the amount produced is more. This can also be in industries with barriers to entry as a large producer might supply more on purpose to drive existing competitors out of business.

Re: US solar plant costs fall another 30 per cent in one year

#12

Post by ggm »

The non-decline in the associated costs for individual installs has to be thought about. If this is a true reflection of unavoidable costs, home installs are unlikely to break a cost barrier, and won't make substantive differences in centralized generation. If on the other hand they are mutable costs, and can be brought down, then microgrids and local power has more chance of becoming something of substance.

The bigger "win" in this is the transmission loss. Consumption close to generation has lower transmission loss so it's innately higher efficiency in that one regard.

PHES and Battery technology probably matter more now than PV as a the cost problem in generation: we need time shifting for solar power to replace other forms of generation, to get to serving demand outside of the sun.

Re: US solar plant costs fall another 30 per cent in one year

#13

Post by angled »

greglindahl wrote: post #6
hellbanner wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No warning at all?

Suniva has been under financial stress for years.

Suniva was in the news this week, and not necessarily in a good way: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-18/little-kn...

Re: US solar plant costs fall another 30 per cent in one year

#14

Post by epistasis »

bluedino wrote: post #3

Our local solar panel plant shut down a few months ago - Suniva. They just mysteriously closed up shop.

It's no mystery to those in the industry. They simply made some bad bets, and decided to meet high local demand by importing panels rather than being able to manufacture on their own. This is from the US solar industry's trade association in response to Suniva's requests for price floors and tariffs:

>Listen later today to our witnesses who will tell you about:

• how Suniva’s ion implant cell technology was a commercial failure;

• how Suniva shipped its cells to other countries to assemble into modules because its own module assembling facility in Michigan was poorly designed;

• how Suniva and SolarWorld both failed to take advantage of opportunities to sell to some of the largest residential solar developers in the country;

• how both companies failed to meet basic delivery and product quality standards, leading to a loss of repeat business; and

• how SolarWorld had the opportunity to sell American-made 72-cell modules to utility-scale developers but filled those orders with imports instead, because they clearly don’t have the capacity to meet U.S. demand for these products.

https://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/2017-09/OPENING%20S...

Basically they tried and failed, where others are succeeding. Now they are trying to play into a political narrative that doesn't apply to them in order to prop up their business, at the expense of all the downstream solar installers in the industry.

Re: US solar plant costs fall another 30 per cent in one year

#15

Post by bsder »

taneq wrote: post #5
mc32 wrote: post #2

On the one hand it's great to get Solar below cost _at someone else's_ expense (Chinese over producing manufacturers), on the other hand I'd prefer that some of our own PV mfgs remain afloat. Ultimately the goal is to wean off of fossil fuels, but if all our R&D is unprofitable we may miss some breakthroughs.

"Over-producing" isn't really a thing. You're complaining about supply outstripping demand causing prices to fall - that's always going to happen with any mass produced goods. It sounds like the real issue is that doing R&D in the U.S. is uncompetitively expensive compared to doing the same work in China.

No, what he is complaining about is the fact that a solar install is a durable good--it has a lifetime and must be amortized.

If the install is cheap crap and only lasts 5 years when you need 10 to amortize it, that's a problem. If the cheap crap drives good manufacturers out of business, that's even worse since now you can't recover once you discover it.

Re: US solar plant costs fall another 30 per cent in one year

#16

Post by Gibbon1 »

future1979 wrote: post #11
taneq wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Over-producing" isn't really a thing. You're complaining about supply outstripping demand causing prices to fall - that's always going to happen with any mass produced goods. It sounds like the real issue is that doing R&D in the U.S. is uncompetitively expensive compared to doing the same work in China.

Err ... not according to Econ 101. A rational producer in a perfectly competitive market supplies just enough to clear the market. When people distort markets with subsidies, etc. the amount produced is more. This can also be in industries with barriers to entry as a large producer might supply more on purpose to drive existing competitors out of business.

> rational producer

With perfect information.

snort

Re: US solar plant costs fall another 30 per cent in one year

#19

Post by epistasis »

ggm wrote: post #12

The non-decline in the associated costs for individual installs has to be thought about. If this is a true reflection of unavoidable costs, home installs are unlikely to break a cost barrier, and won't make substantive differences in centralized generation. If on the other hand they are mutable costs, and can be brought down, then microgrids and local power has more chance of becoming something of substance. The bigg…

In the US at least, a huge fraction of costs for residential solar are in customer acquisition. Something like 20%-30% of the cost of a residential install goes to paying for lists of potential customers and marketing to them! This makes US residential solar much more expensive than in many other countries.

After that cost is reduced, there may be room for innovation in reducing install costs by bundling solar with roof replacement, or something similar.

I'm not so sure that transmission losses themselves are a huge win, since only about 5% of power goes to transmission and distribution.

However, if storage + solar allows the utilities to avoid transmission and distribution capital upgrades, that's a much larger chunk of the cost of electricity, about 36% according to the latest numbers and rising every year.

Re: US solar plant costs fall another 30 per cent in one year

#20

Post by phonon »

ggm wrote: post #12

The non-decline in the associated costs for individual installs has to be thought about. If this is a true reflection of unavoidable costs, home installs are unlikely to break a cost barrier, and won't make substantive differences in centralized generation. If on the other hand they are mutable costs, and can be brought down, then microgrids and local power has more chance of becoming something of substance. The bigg…

Even if so, installation costs are minor when solar is included in the initial construction of the house. So I expect a much bigger emphasis on that soon...
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