141–150 of 323 posts
And I'm just going to self-promote a bit and say that the bet was registered via a project I worked on, the Long Now Foundation's project Long Bets: http://longbets.org/ We've been going since 2002: https://www.wired.com/2002/05/longbets/ We are happy to host bets of long-term significance, and the minimum bet is only $200/side. I am glad to personally help shepherd people who are serious about bets to make sure you…
This does not surprise me. My personal experience with hedge fund managers is that they are good salesmen that peddle their financial expertise to clients, convincing them of their financial rock-star status (usually gained through a lucky investment or two). Paulson is a classic example. Wealthy individuals buy into it, especially those that are less educated (e.g. those that have inherited money), and happily alloc…
I expect that you are right about a significant number of funds (I would say most long-only funds). But a decent chunk of the industry exists because investors want higher-sharpe investments than the market even if they don't beat a bull market and/or investments that will remain uncorrelated with the market. This is a reason why a lot of money is flowing into quant funds despite the overall outflow, because most qua…
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Does that mean the left lane should be unoccupied if everyone in the other lanes are driving at the speed limit?
No. It should be unoccupied if nobody is passing. If it is empty on a particular stretch, somebody will decide to pass.
This does not surprise me. My personal experience with hedge fund managers is that they are good salesmen that peddle their financial expertise to clients, convincing them of their financial rock-star status (usually gained through a lucky investment or two). Paulson is a classic example. Wealthy individuals buy into it, especially those that are less educated (e.g. those that have inherited money), and happily alloc…
I understand a lot of the top performing hedge funds operate via insider information.
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I understand a lot of the top performing hedge funds operate via insider information.
Is your understanding that they operate via illegal insider information, or access to information that is very difficult to achieve? To be clear: I have mined and sold data to hedge funds before, including well known ones, and from that work I derived two conclusions: 1. It is fundamentally possible to beat the market consistently and legally by exploiting information asymmetry, and 2. Most hedge funds, especially th…
Are you able to tell more about what types of data this was? I'd be interested in hearing more. I love the story of hedge funds using satellite imagery of parking lots to predict retail store strength
And I'm just going to self-promote a bit and say that the bet was registered via a project I worked on, the Long Now Foundation's project Long Bets: http://longbets.org/ We've been going since 2002: https://www.wired.com/2002/05/longbets/ We are happy to host bets of long-term significance, and the minimum bet is only $200/side. I am glad to personally help shepherd people who are serious about bets to make sure you…
On https://longbets.org/register/ , it says that "Long Bets registration is temporarily disabled. Please check back soon." Why is registration temporarily disabled? Can I get an email notification when it's back up?
But if anybody has a bet they'd like to get registered, just email me and/or them.
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Most people cruise at a speed that is faster than everyone else in the other (non-left) lanes. But, please don't be the car that is cruising at 60mph in the left lane. It is a leading cause of accidents.
Ie speeding?
Unless you are just really unlucky XD
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It's not just some people. It is actually the law in most states (albeit a seldom-enforced one). Don't cruise in the left lane.
This doesn't apply at all in most of California. We need the left lane for capacity, not flow regulation. Also left lanes are frequently diamond lanes, so you're basically telling people not to carpool.
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It's the law to keep to the right in most states. For instance, Washington state: http://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=46.61.100
It might be the law, but WA state is the poster child for left-lane bandits. Easily, with no doubt in my mind, the worst of the 50 states for a general contempt and ignorance of left lane (or lane discipline in general) protocol and law. IOW, it is not uncommon to see a line of cars in the left lane doing the speed limit or under, and a total two cars in the other lanes. Oregon is a close second. The state police had…
Reminds me a little of traffic. Yesterday I was cruising down the highway in the leftmost lane, going about 80 with a line of other cars. The other two lanes were actually more clear, but cars were going much slower. I notice this one car, weaving in and out of traffic in these two lanes, trying desperately to get ahead, constantly cutting people off. They did this for 40 miles, weaving in and out, sometimes getting…
This was tested in an experiment I can't find now. One group of drivers was asked to stick to one lane, the other group was told to switch lanes when possible to get ahead. The outcome: as expected switching lanes gained next to nothing. But importantly the reported experience was significantly worse for those that stayed in one lane. So switching lanes doesn't reduce commute time but the perceived commute time - and…