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Google Has Spent Over $1.1B on Self-Driving Tech

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Re: Google Has Spent Over $1.1B on Self-Driving Tech

#81

Post by flexie »

tuna-piano wrote: post #7

I think by most accounts - 1) Google / Waymo is by far the furthest ahead in self-driving tech. 2) Self-driving is possible in at least certain circumstances in the next decade or two (already is to an extent today). 3) Transportation / automobiles is an absolutely massive industry. Even companies like Dana, Inc (maker of axles) have $4bil valuations. It's easy to see how a self-driving tech maker would be worth far…

I agree that 1.1B isn't that much given the potential size of the market (and given the size of Google's profits, it's a surprisingly small bet they've made).

But how do you arrive at the conclusion that Google is way ahead? I cannot buy a Google car with self-driving capabilities. I can't even buy a car from any other manufacturer with Google's self-driving software in it. I can buy several other cars with some degree of self-driving tech in them, most notably Tesla, but also Volvo and Audi and others.

Already now, you have tens of thousands of Teslas driving around in either self-driving mode or in what is in essence a "recording" mode where they record and simulate. They drive in all kind of traffic, roads, rules, weather, light etc.

Meanwhile, you have a few hundred Waymobiles mostly driving around the perfect, dry and pristine Northern Californian roads with 25 mph. They have merely logged in 3M miles in almost 10 years. That's the equivalent of 10,000 Teslas driving 10 miles per day for a month. In a couple of years you will have a million Teslas driving on the roads. And you probably still just have a few hundred Google cars driving around engineers.

Google is losing the number game with its boutique approach. Waymo is WayBehind.

Re: Google Has Spent Over $1.1B on Self-Driving Tech

#82

Post by jvolkman »

flexie wrote: post #81
tuna-piano wrote: post #7

I think by most accounts - 1) Google / Waymo is by far the furthest ahead in self-driving tech. 2) Self-driving is possible in at least certain circumstances in the next decade or two (already is to an extent today). 3) Transportation / automobiles is an absolutely massive industry. Even companies like Dana, Inc (maker of axles) have $4bil valuations. It's easy to see how a self-driving tech maker would be worth far…

I agree that 1.1B isn't that much given the potential size of the market (and given the size of Google's profits, it's a surprisingly small bet they've made). But how do you arrive at the conclusion that Google is way ahead? I cannot buy a Google car with self-driving capabilities. I can't even buy a car from any other manufacturer with Google's self-driving software in it. I can buy several other cars with some degr…

The Tesla data recording sounds great on paper, but despite all that hypothetical data Autopilot still can't stay in its lane: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=ALEMd9WZJtE

Re: Google Has Spent Over $1.1B on Self-Driving Tech

#83

Post by robotresearcher »

the8472 wrote: post #78
robotresearcher wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SDCs are just the easiest form of autonomous robots. That's a claim I have never heard before and I don't agree with. You have some kind of argument to support that drive-by claim? Since there are no fully autonomous SDCs yet you'd have to explain away any existing autonomous robots.

Roads are a fairly structured and rule-based environment already designed with machines operating on them in mind. And those aspects that are not designed for the physical properties of cars are still designed to be easily perceptible by the human operators, e.g. signs, lane markings. That can't be said for many other environments in which autonomous robots would have to operate.

There are literally millions of Roomba cleaner robots sold. They are autonomous.

Simple, but autonomous.

Re: Google Has Spent Over $1.1B on Self-Driving Tech

#84

Post by visarga »

robotresearcher wrote: post #66
visarga wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same tech that is being used in self driving cars could be repurposed for autonomous robots, and end up with a market much bigger than that of transportation. SDCs are just the easiest form of autonomous robots.

> SDCs are just the easiest form of autonomous robots. That's a claim I have never heard before and I don't agree with. You have some kind of argument to support that drive-by claim? Since there are no fully autonomous SDCs yet you'd have to explain away any existing autonomous robots.

I was thinking that wheeled locomotion is still much easier than legged locomotion, artificial arms, grasping and fine motor manipulation. Robots still can't compare to a dexterous human, but a SDC is arguably a good driver.

Re: Google Has Spent Over $1.1B on Self-Driving Tech

#85

Post by user5994461 »

the8472 wrote: post #77
MarkMc wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 4) Software tends to be a winner-take-most industry. That's true of software generally, but not will not be true of automated driving software. Windows, iOS, Facebook and YouTube have strong network effects. Google search and Microsoft Office offer a familiar user interface and superior features. Self driving software will have none of these benefits - there is no network effect, no significant user interface, and…

> 1) possibly being first to market; If you are first to market with selfdriving cars AND manage to transform transportation into a ride-hailing service then you might get a natural regional monopoly wherever you build out the fleet support infrastructure, similar to other utility services. Plus brand recognition for that service.

First to market AND have the most well known brand.

Re: Google Has Spent Over $1.1B on Self-Driving Tech

#86

Post by madisfun »

eighthnate wrote: post #24
tuna-piano wrote: post #7

I think by most accounts - 1) Google / Waymo is by far the furthest ahead in self-driving tech. 2) Self-driving is possible in at least certain circumstances in the next decade or two (already is to an extent today). 3) Transportation / automobiles is an absolutely massive industry. Even companies like Dana, Inc (maker of axles) have $4bil valuations. It's easy to see how a self-driving tech maker would be worth far…

> 4) Software tends to be a winner-take-most industry. Yeah. I think this is it. I remember when google paid $1.6B for Youtube 10 years ago, people thought they were insane. Look at them now. Youtube dominates the web as video platform. Pretty much the successful self-driving AI platform will probably dominate the market and will be installed in most cars. Like how Android dominates the smartphone market. In tech/sof…

> Youtube dominates the web as video platform.

Is it profitable?

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