Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners • Hacker News Board

Re: Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

#51

Post by cyberferret » Sat, Sep 16, 2017, 12:26 PM UTC

I can't say too much, because they are a current client of mine, but I've been doing work with a wholesaler for one of the biggest lotteries here in my country, and they seem to have a LOT of customers who bulk buy lottery tickets in what seems to be patterns.

I am talking hundreds of thousands of dollars of lottery tickets per week. Their winning are also along those lines. I don't know about the industry, but these sound like professional lottery players who check odds and play the system much as they would the stock market. They probably have set systems in place and complex prediction and statistical algorithms which ensures they win just more than they lose?

I am thinking that 'pro' players such as these might skew the statistic for winners to a large extent?

Re: Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

#52

Post by csydas » Sat, Sep 16, 2017, 12:37 PM UTC

projectant wrote: post #42

csydas wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, let's assume for a second that psychics exist and know that they are psychic. The second assumption is kind of important as if they just act on impulse without knowing they're psychic we can't really differentiate that from all the other chance winnings on a hunch. For the Powerball, two ways to play: pick your own numbers or randomly generate them. Would a winning psychic choose one over the other more often?…

Good points, but continuing with the thought experiment, I think you fail to consider what might be a reality for your psychics. What if the psychics don't have perfect information, nor perfect control, but have, perhaps varying on the psychic in question, some amount of power that lets them see or control future numbers with some amount of probability, but not certainty? In that case, they might win more often, but…

That's fair. I certainly did forget to include the assumption that they would have perfect clarity into their foresight.

I still think you'd see a pretty clear pattern emerge from winners however, at least should the individual grasp the impact of their ability, even if the picture is incomplete. I also agree stocks or sports betting would be a better choice as partial information seems more valuable in those cases.

But I still feel confident you'd see the same general truths from psychics with partial clarity; still picking numbers and never using random and still an erratic purchase pattern as they chase locations and time. I think the former would likely show more purchases with the same constant numbers from the futuresight and then a spread of other numbers; such behavior may stand out even more as there would be a history of them always getting a small subset right and guessing the rest.

Re: Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

#53

Post by praptak » Sat, Sep 16, 2017, 12:40 PM UTC

cyberferret wrote: post #51

I can't say too much, because they are a current client of mine, but I've been doing work with a wholesaler for one of the biggest lotteries here in my country, and they seem to have a LOT of customers who bulk buy lottery tickets in what seems to be patterns. I am talking hundreds of thousands of dollars of lottery tickets per week. Their winning are also along those lines. I don't know about the industry, but these…

I don't believe that odds in favor of a player happen in lotteries, except for rare 'bugs' in the game design, which are fixed as soon as the organizer spots them.

A more probable explanation are addicts or money laundering.

Re: Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

#54

Post by dEnigma » Sat, Sep 16, 2017, 12:41 PM UTC

cyberferret wrote: post #51

I can't say too much, because they are a current client of mine, but I've been doing work with a wholesaler for one of the biggest lotteries here in my country, and they seem to have a LOT of customers who bulk buy lottery tickets in what seems to be patterns. I am talking hundreds of thousands of dollars of lottery tickets per week. Their winning are also along those lines. I don't know about the industry, but these…

How would they control the odds of winning? Luck aside, and especially when you buy lottery tickets in bulk, the odds are definitely against the player. Is there something I'm not aware of?

Re: Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

#55

Post by shubb » Sat, Sep 16, 2017, 12:52 PM UTC

praptak wrote: post #53

cyberferret wrote: post #51

I can't say too much, because they are a current client of mine, but I've been doing work with a wholesaler for one of the biggest lotteries here in my country, and they seem to have a LOT of customers who bulk buy lottery tickets in what seems to be patterns. I am talking hundreds of thousands of dollars of lottery tickets per week. Their winning are also along those lines. I don't know about the industry, but these…

I don't believe that odds in favor of a player happen in lotteries, except for rare 'bugs' in the game design, which are fixed as soon as the organizer spots them. A more probable explanation are addicts or money laundering.

Explains why 'i won it on an ico' is such an appealing explanation of wealth to some bitcoin users...

Re: Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

#56

Post by ldjb » Sat, Sep 16, 2017, 12:55 PM UTC

cyberferret wrote: post #51

I can't say too much, because they are a current client of mine, but I've been doing work with a wholesaler for one of the biggest lotteries here in my country, and they seem to have a LOT of customers who bulk buy lottery tickets in what seems to be patterns. I am talking hundreds of thousands of dollars of lottery tickets per week. Their winning are also along those lines. I don't know about the industry, but these…

As others have mentioned, it would be impossible to 'game' the system in that way, unless there's something fishy going on.

Perhaps these people are re-selling the lottery tickets. I can imagine there are ways to earn a lot of money doing that. Naturally, the amount of tickets you'd order would reflect demand for tickets.

Re: Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

#57

Post by jacquesm » Sat, Sep 16, 2017, 1:24 PM UTC

praptak wrote: post #53

cyberferret wrote: post #51

I can't say too much, because they are a current client of mine, but I've been doing work with a wholesaler for one of the biggest lotteries here in my country, and they seem to have a LOT of customers who bulk buy lottery tickets in what seems to be patterns. I am talking hundreds of thousands of dollars of lottery tickets per week. Their winning are also along those lines. I don't know about the industry, but these…

I don't believe that odds in favor of a player happen in lotteries, except for rare 'bugs' in the game design, which are fixed as soon as the organizer spots them. A more probable explanation are addicts or money laundering.

> rare 'bugs' in the game design

They may not be all that rare.

> A more probable explanation are addicts or money laundering.

The second is definitely a factor. Even the Dutch state run casinos were/are used for this.

Re: Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

#58

Post by 2_listerine_pls » Sat, Sep 16, 2017, 1:44 PM UTC

fergie wrote: post #14

Years ago I had a friend who's father made a living smuggling cigarettes (and probably other stuff) from Northern Africa to Gibraltar. He laundered his income by buying winning lottery tickets.

Fidel Herrera, a former Governor of a Mexican State, won the lottery twice.

Re: Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

#59

Post by ghostDancer » Sat, Sep 16, 2017, 1:49 PM UTC

rodrigocoelho wrote: post #28

Never forget João Alves, the Brazilian politician who had won part of 200 lotteries, because, as he said, "God helped me, and I made money". http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/30/world/new-government-corru...

In Spain politician Carlos Fabra won more than 2 million euros in several lotteries, now is in jail and being investigated for corruption. It's famous in Spain for that and for having built an airport that it's empty with almost no flights at all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castell%C3%B3n%E2%80%93Costa_A...

Re: Improbably Frequent Lottery Winners

#60

Post by Retric » Sat, Sep 16, 2017, 2:11 PM UTC

csydas wrote: post #52

projectant wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good points, but continuing with the thought experiment, I think you fail to consider what might be a reality for your psychics. What if the psychics don't have perfect information, nor perfect control, but have, perhaps varying on the psychic in question, some amount of power that lets them see or control future numbers with some amount of probability, but not certainty? In that case, they might win more often, but…

That's fair. I certainly did forget to include the assumption that they would have perfect clarity into their foresight. I still think you'd see a pretty clear pattern emerge from winners however, at least should the individual grasp the impact of their ability, even if the picture is incomplete. I also agree stocks or sports betting would be a better choice as partial information seems more valuable in those cases.…

The most obvious difference would be people who picked their numbers would have better winning than expected. Which is easy to check, but does not happen.