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Cost of iPhone X in 1957

bradford-delong.com

71–80 of 173 posts

Re: Cost of iPhone X in 1957

#71

It's unfair to point to one exponentially increasing technology and use that as an index for general technology. On the other hand, it's interesting they choose to use the semiconductor industry as their example because progress is slowing in the semi industry due to the laws of physics with respect to standard CMOS and innovative rescues in either architectural form or through novel device physics are very unlikely…

> glacial pace and apparent allergies to innovation

Glacial pace? It followed an exponential, doubling the number of transistors every 10 months for 40 years. You would be hard-pressed to come up with another field with the same pace of innovation and progress. The amount of innovation they had to come up with to sustain that, is staggering.

> A field that scorns young entrants is bound to die someday.

What nonsense. Who will produce your chips then?

Re: Cost of iPhone X in 1957

#72

...and yet, even with all this computing power, simple tasks like loading a webpage full of text still take ridiculously long times. Maybe not with a '57 vacuum tube (transistors actually existed at the time already) computer, but then there's this: https://hubpages.com/technology/_86_Mac_Plus_Vs_07_AMD_DualC... The massive increase in computing power has been accompanied by a corresponding increase in complexity. Fo…

Definitely for worse in many cases. Every time I buy a new phone with better specs, I expect that things will be that much better, but they never are. Instead, the power is wasted on useless things like animation, apps that I can't shut off running in the background, etc.

Smartphones were solved back in 2011 with the iPhone 4s and the Galaxy S2. I still see some around, especially the iPhones. Next iterations are obviously better and faster but they are more about to keep funnelling money out of our pockets and to power (maybe not purposely) the ever increasing complexity of tracking and marketing tools.

Re: Cost of iPhone X in 1957

#73
I keep seeing these economic treatments of "how much progress has accelerated" (and have been seeing them for some 30-40 years now myself), and ... I'm starting to feel a case of three-card monty or the travelling dime problem -- keep moving the pieces quickly enough so that the audience^Wmarks don't spot the trick.

First off: yes, absolutely, the cost of provisioning and operating electronic memory data storage and processing has fallen phenomenally. DeLong makes that point abundantly clear:

in 1957, the transistors in an iPhoneX alone would have ... cost 150 trillion of today's dollars: one and a half times today's global annual product ... taken up a hundred-story square building 300 meters high, and 3 kilometers long and wide ... drawn 150 terawatts of power—30 times the world's current generating capacity

But let's look at those comparisons right there.

The iPhone X costs $1,000, and for easy math I'll assume all of that is the memory storage (this is wrong, but it's not horribly wrong, on an orders-of-magnitude basis). If the 1950 cost was $150 trillion, then the price has fallen by at least 150 billion fold. (And in fact it's fallen more, because there's more than just memory in the device, so my easy math understates the case.)

Global GDP in 1955, or more accurate, GWP, was $5.4 billion. As of 2016 it was about $80 billion, or, just for round numbers, lets call that $5 billion and $100 billion.[1]

The multiplier is a factor of 20. Which, if I check maths, is somewhat less than 150 billion. Which is to say that whatever's been strapping white lightning to our capacity to chunk out memory circuits has not been strapped to the global economy as a whole.

Measures of the total built environment are difficult to come by, and even proxies for that seem at best obscure. Since DeLong specifies the idea of a 100-story-tall building, though, there is at least one interesting statistic that can be readily produced. Up until 1970, there was precisely one such building, and it was the Empire State Building, which held that record from 1931 until 1972 (at which time the newly completed World Trade Centers in New York City claimed the crown).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_world%27s_tal...

Naturally, there's been some contention for that prize since. A total of four additional tallest structures are listed: the Sears Tower (completed in 1974), Patronas Towers, Taipei 101, and Burje Khalifa. If we look at the list of the world's tallest buildings, and use the ESB's 381 meter height as a minimum qualification, there are by my count 37 such structures. Again, this seems slightly less than 150 billion.[2]

Finally, energy consumption. In 1955, this was, roughly, 100 exajoule. In 2017 this is, roughly, 500 exajoule. The multiplier would be then ... 5. A number somewhat less than 150 billion.[3]

The question which arises out of this is what is it about information technology that allows for a 150-billion-plus increase in capabilities, whilst total GWP (20x), skyscrapers (37x), and energy (5x) have seen far, far, far less expansion?

There's another question which asks if we're actually including full costs, which I'll note but leave off the table for this discussion.[4]

But the question I would like to ask is what additional service value is being provided for all that the iPhone offers?

Consider that it is, ultimately, an information delivery device. And that the information end-consumer, the human tethered to it, has an almost ludicrously low consumption capability. Sure, you can deliver gigabytes or terabytes of source data to a human, but the amount of that which is absorbed, over the course of a day, amounts to ... a few megabytes, at most. And we're talking single digit values here.[5] What the iPhone can deliver is video, audio, images, and text. Through on a viewport roughly the size of a 3x5 index card. The equivalent 1955 technologies it replaces are a notebook, a telephone (and probably some form of answering service or secretarial pool), the not-yet-invented transistor radio, a deck of cards or pocket game, a newspaper and/or magazine, a paperback book, a letter. A pile of index cards itself.[6]

And ... the iPhone X carries any number of unintended consequences: the loss of liberal democracy, undermining a century-old tradition of advertising + subscriber based print media, journalism, adtech, concentration, possibly an entire generation.[7] Unintended consequences are a real bitch.

Delong's calculus is exceptionally insufficient.

________________________________

Notes:

1. Wikipedia. Which, coincidentally, is citing one Bradforth DeLong as its source. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product

2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings

3. Gail Tverberg, after Vaclav Smil and BP: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/03/12/world-energy-consumpti...

4. Much of this revolves around the question of natural capital accounting. The good news is that this is entering mainstream economics, see the World Bank for example. The bad news is that it's still improperly founded. Steve Keen's work on energy in production functions is also of interest, though that admits yet another factor.

5. Consider audio. The human limit of perception is roughly 20 impules per second, a/k/a 20 Hz, which is the threshold at which beats become a tone. Given 86,400 seconds/day, at 20x, we've got 1.7 million bits of data, or 216 KB of audio-encoded pulses. For printed material, a 250 words/min reading pace is fairly typical, which works out to 2.16 MB/day, sustained for 24 hours.

6. a/k/a the Hipster PDA: http://www.43folders.com/2004/09/03/introducing-the-hipster-...

7. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/09/has-the...

Re: Cost of iPhone X in 1957

#74
post #17

Comparisons like that always assume the that price is constant with increased demand even when world GDP is spent on something. What would likely happen is first the price would go up and later down as the world manufacturing would shift to vacuum tubes production.

Yes if a government started buying trillions of vacuum tubes, companies would quickly get much more efficient at producing then and there would be a huge investment into researching alternatives. But that brings up the question, what tech could we be subsidizing today so we can get it faster?

OT: thank you for not saying "But that begs the question." Two reasons: (1) it would have been incorrect, and (2) the correct use of the expression "beg the question" is doomed, and we should put it out of its misery.

Re: Cost of iPhone X in 1957

#77
This comparison seems fairly fantastical and irrelevant. Something from within the history of consumer electronics would be more useful to consider, in my opinion.

For example, in 1982, the wildly popular low-end home entertainment computer, the Commodore 64, was released at $595, or about $1500 after inflation adjustment. On release in 1977, the Apple II was $1298, or over $5000 in today's terms. You could pay $400 per 4k of ram, so $6000 if you wanted one with 12k ram. If the iPhone X came out in 1985 for this price, it would have been $400 in 1982 dollars, or 40% of the C64 - with over 4 million times the storage capacity, to say nothing of the other capabilities.

That our modern mobile devices are popularly called 'phones' misses the point that they are used as general purpose computing devices, not primarily phones or even necessarily primarily for communication. They are also GPS navigators, cameras, calculators, recipe files, photo albums, alarm clocks, book readers, walkmans, home stereos, encyclopedias, wallets, and a lot more. People used to frequently pay decent sums to buy dedicated devices to perform many of those services.

Re: Cost of iPhone X in 1957

#78
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes if a government started buying trillions of vacuum tubes, companies would quickly get much more efficient at producing then and there would be a huge investment into researching alternatives. But that brings up the question, what tech could we be subsidizing today so we can get it faster?

OT: thank you for not saying "But that begs the question." Two reasons: (1) it would have been incorrect, and (2) the correct use of the expression "beg the question" is doomed, and we should put it out of its misery.

Ha, I didn't expect anyone to notice that. I was totally going to go with "begs the question", but wasn't sure if it was correct and was to lazy to look it up.

Re: Cost of iPhone X in 1957

#79
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already subsidize renewables, and that is encouraging research into them. The current projection of price per watt for solar is set to plummet in the next decade and a half. It's possible that further subsidies would encourage higher levels of production and economies of scale would reduce the price quicker.

The USA also subsidizes fossil fuel industries pretty heavily, so those renewables subsidies are (at least in part) just leveling the field.

The fossil fuels industry pays extremely high tax rates on their profits and has for decades (Exxon and Chevron typically average near 35%, among the highest corporate tax rates anywhere). They've been subsidizing the research into renewables for a very long time.

While I agree there should be zero subsidies for fossil fuels, the corporate taxes they've paid drastically outweigh the modest subsidies the fossil fuel corporations have received. The only way that isn't the case, is if one includes extremely fuzzy environmental damage estimates (in which case nearly every industry that has ever existed has been theoretically massively subsidized).

Re: Cost of iPhone X in 1957

#80

Having a billion transistors is not 10 times as useful as 100 million transistors. The diminishing return kicked in even before that. Unless a killer application needs a billion transistors, the value created over a previous iPhone is incremental. I think a better way to measure value is invention's cost effectiveness = price / (time * improvement to well-being) The denominator is how much the invention makes our lif…

> Having a billion transistors is not 10 times as useful as 100 million transistors. The diminishing return kicked in even before that. I think this is far more difficult to evaluate than your comment admits. More transistors -> more software that can do more things, written by developers with a wider range of skills, in a society with increased tech permeation, and so on...

I don't think that's entirely clear. At least for cpus, less transistors in practice means you get rid of super-scalar architectures, and over-engineered microcode decoding and branch-prediction units. This leads to a modest reduction in processing speed with far larger gains in battery life for mobile devices (think X86 versus Arm). Client side applications are mostly unaffected in terms of end-user functionality.
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