I think it's a very interesting timeline you've laid out. The piece I don't follow is the conclusion.
> Take all of that, and ask yourself this. Would the US govt, which already had suspicion to remove them, and had been getting the ball rolling since at least May or before then, ask them to spy on behalf of the US in Russia, and if they balk, remove their funding and damage their reputation?
To me that's real reason: they wouldn't play ball.
I'm no expert at this, but I can't think of any circumstance where US intelligence would both simultaneously believe they are a branch of the Russian govt and ask them to spy in Russia on their behalf. Almost with 100% certainty if the US is spying in Russia it is against their geo-political foe Russia's interest. You wouldn't pass your secretly gathered intelligence through a branch of the Russian govt before returning it stateside. The secret intelligence is almost certainly about the Russian govt - no way you'd pass it through them to get it back to you. At minimum they'd know what you know, at maximum they'd manipulate it to deceive you. Again this is all speculation on my part here, but I don't see it supporting that conclusion.
Clearly something changed to cause the sudden urgency to eliminate Kaspersky from govt computers. Additionally the urgency to me speaks more to eliminating a threat (of espionage or else) rather than retaliation. 30-90 days in govt time is pretty much as immediate as it gets.
I think something else changed or was discovered. An option is US intelligence found out evidence of escalation of alleged actions by Kaspersky either in the recent past or plans for the near future. Again I've got no evidence of this - but is what seems like it better fits the points we've seen so far.