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Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

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Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#211
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but when can the car proceed, and in which direction? Helps to know what a wheelchair, a woman and a chicken are and how they behave. Helps to be able to speak with them. Superhuman sensors will be great, but you really can't dodge AGI for true full self-driving.

It's probably super easy for the car to stop and open the window for a person to talk ;-)

True, you could have the passenger making "shoo" noises :D

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#212
post #35

From my discussions with a friend with intimate knowledge of the software side of Cruise, there is wild skepticism within the co that they even have the hardware needed to go L4 or L5. Big promises being made to GM by Kyle which is leading to smoke and mirrors to distract/buy time from more critical problems "under the hood."

I can confirm that Cruise Automation's software is simply not viable as the basis of a self-driving car.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#213
post #82
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

deleted Hm. http://archive.is/VhWor

> Cruise employee here. throwaway for obvious reasons. It needs to be said that this is entirely marketing smoke and mirrors. The Cruise platform is significantly behind most other players in the market, and is having many many technical problems because of shortsighted leadership on Kyle's part, including high level people quitting (the head of planning and controls left last month because of Kyle, and more are thre…

This is accurate.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds a bit like damage control to me, but > Kyle is easily the most intelligent, hard working, and reasonable CEO I have worked for. Couldn't you be in a different management hierarchy to this purported employee?

Not damage control, just providing an alternate opinion. Yes, it's entirely possible that the commenter is (or was) an employee in a department other than engineering. We all report to CEO eventually though, so I don't think that would result in a significantly different experience.

OP made accurate statements and expressed a sentiment that's typical at Cruise. Your "alternate opinion" is not widely shared.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#215
post #35

From my discussions with a friend with intimate knowledge of the software side of Cruise, there is wild skepticism within the co that they even have the hardware needed to go L4 or L5. Big promises being made to GM by Kyle which is leading to smoke and mirrors to distract/buy time from more critical problems "under the hood."

I can confirm that Cruise Automation's software is simply not viable as the basis of a self-driving car.

How do you know that? Do you work for Cruise?

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#216
post #35

From my discussions with a friend with intimate knowledge of the software side of Cruise, there is wild skepticism within the co that they even have the hardware needed to go L4 or L5. Big promises being made to GM by Kyle which is leading to smoke and mirrors to distract/buy time from more critical problems "under the hood."

hmm I thought the bottleneck would be on the software side? I saw at least 2 lidars (possibly 3) on the car in the article. Of course we don't know if that's sufficient for L4, L5 but other companies are running with only 1 lidar.

People can get by with zero LIDARs. There's no reason why autonomous cars couldn't. The real problems are elsewhere (emergency vehicles, ambiguous situations, construction, …). We'll need operators on standby for a looong time still. Good luck driving in areas without decent fast cell networking.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really believe it is possible. Lidars were the most expensive part and are much, much cheaper now, I can't really imagine how can they spend more than 100k$ of self driving hardware per car.

There still are not cheap, good, 3D, automotive-grade LIDAR units. 2-3 years out, though, there should be lots of them.

Waymo lidar is around 7.5k$, I would say that it qualifies as a good automotive-grade lidar.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#218
post #4

I don't know what to believe. A few days ago I spent some time checking publicly available data and the result is that the current state of art is extremely far from an autonomous car that, could like used to drive a taxi in a busy city like Rome. Not far as "still some effort needed" but potentially "not clear when this could be available" far. Now there are those claims made by multiple companies... Go figure.

OTOH it is easy to teach human drivers to behave carefully and differently when they encounter a self driving car. They could even require special marking or color on the cars. People learn to be careful with trains, trams etc so i don't see why they won't learn to behave more rationally when a SD car is passing by.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#219
post #154
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. But Reuters reported they intend to put 'thousands' of autonomous Bolts on the road in 2018: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/e... Cruise has released some impressive demos on their YouTube page, of vehicle driving around downtown SF: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA Cruise reported to the California DMV that they aver…

> they'll have cars driving around empty. > It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. Using the words "they will" makes it sound like an assertion. How are you so confident about "events that haven't occurred" will indeed occur? You listed out reports and demos, none of which necessarily suggest that "Late this year or 2018 they'll have cars driving around empty"? Do you have addit…

If I tell you the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning, I don't actually know it's going to do that until it does. That's kind of the thing about future events, it should go without saying. Nothing you've written is a counter argument. You just used way more words than you need to to say 'I don't believe you'. Yay.

My points are that GM is doing well, and that they are scaling up their operation to a degree that wouldn't make sense if they didn't intend to deliver the minimum viable commercial robotaxi service sometime over the next year or so.

The counterpoints are that 'this smells like PR bullshit', and that Kyle Vogt is an asshole (because no asshole has ever successfully led a technology company before).

You guys have nothing substantiative to argue with.

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