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Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

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Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#111
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there anywhere that allows autonomous cars to be tested on real roads without a fallback human driver?

Arizona. Their weather and regulatory climate has Waymo, Cruise, and Uber all testing there. I believe Michigan and Florida are also willing to permit fully autonomous cars on their roads, but most of the action is in and around Phoenix.

Last I saw, the tests in Phoenix had human back-up drivers. Has something changed recently?

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#112
post #106
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. But Reuters reported they intend to put 'thousands' of autonomous Bolts on the road in 2018: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/e... Cruise has released some impressive demos on their YouTube page, of vehicle driving around downtown SF: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA Cruise reported to the California DMV that they aver…

> Cruise reported to the California DMV that they averaged on unplanned disengagement every 180 miles through 2016 Isn't this disengagement rate several orders of magnitude too high to support fully autonomous vehicles?

For comparison, it's about 28x higher[1] than Waymo reported for the same period. I'm not sure how similar the driving conditions were but I would guess pretty close.

1. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b... (Page 3 of PDF)

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#113
post #106
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. But Reuters reported they intend to put 'thousands' of autonomous Bolts on the road in 2018: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/e... Cruise has released some impressive demos on their YouTube page, of vehicle driving around downtown SF: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA Cruise reported to the California DMV that they aver…

> Cruise reported to the California DMV that they averaged on unplanned disengagement every 180 miles through 2016 Isn't this disengagement rate several orders of magnitude too high to support fully autonomous vehicles?

That's their average for the year. They were way worse at the beginning, and way better by the end. They continue to improve, though I can't give you data on that until late December when this year's disengagement reports are filed. Like once you get to the point where you can go, say, 10 miles in urban traffic without a disengagement, the improvements from then on (as measured by disengagements) improve dramatically, up until you get to the point where it's really hard to discover new edge cases. Waymo in 2016 was at 1 disengagement every 5000 miles, and that's a 4x improvement over 2015.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arizona. Their weather and regulatory climate has Waymo, Cruise, and Uber all testing there. I believe Michigan and Florida are also willing to permit fully autonomous cars on their roads, but most of the action is in and around Phoenix.

Last I saw, the tests in Phoenix had human back-up drivers. Has something changed recently?

Nobody is driving without backup drivers yet yet. It's not because they aren't allowed.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#115

While I'm almost always bullish on new tech, self-driving cars are one where I frankly have a pretty hard time buying into the hype. I think when they really start to hit the streets, some issues are going to show up. Here's what I mean. Imagine this situation: You're pulling into your driveway in your self-driving car, and one of your kids left a lawn gnome there, blocking it. The car won't go forward because there'…

There is nothing hard about valuing gnome vs child, if you can identify them. Computers can evaluate huge problem spaces in milliseconds. The hard part is the perception: identifying the child and the gnome. Deep learning has allowed us to make gigantic leaps in the quality of perception but there is a long way to go in uncontrolled environments.

I also think people incorrectly think that the moral choice dilemmas that self-driving cars will face are somehow the difficult part. What will happen is that we will provide valuation functions that are somewhat close to our intuitive collective understanding of value of life in different forms. Computers use them to evaluate these situations and we as a society just adapt to the new ethics of the AI age.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#116
post #32
post #25

Call me when it's for sale, when I can put down money and drive away (or rather, be driven away by) a self diving car. Seriously though. Please call me when that happens. I really, really want to not have to drive anymore. I don't care what the price tag is.

What's stopping you from taking an Uber everywhere?

The people that drive Uber.

Jokes aside, it's still semi-public transportation.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#117
post #95
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comments sound like a PR statement, what goods? How do you know how close they are? Looks to me that they designed a mass-producible car outfitted with self-driving systems (which is very cool!). But they are only just starting to do employee testing. Waymo has been doing that for years.

Waymo is ahead on the technology. They were ready to begin public trials with their Koala cars in 2015, but the California DMV shut them down, and many of their key people jumped ship. Waymo has since been proceeding a bit more cautiously, and their efforts at this point are oriented more towards smoothing out ride feel, testing under adverse weather conditions, and their early rider program in Phoenix. Whether it's…

Waymo already had a car driving with a blind person.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#118
post #77

tl;dr we have built a car that does not self-drive, but like, some day, it will, we're pretty sure Funniest thing is they still use wiring harnesses. If you're manufacturing the car from scratch just build a digital bus into the frame.

> If you're manufacturing the car from scratch just build a digital bus into the frame. And just how would you do this? The frame is metal - it isn't plastic; so to move control signals around, you need to have a harness. That harness, on the majority of cars today, is attached to clips that are mounted to the frame (inside the vehicle), behind the interior fascia plastic. Google "vehicle wire harness" and look at so…

> And just how would you do this?

Embed channels in the unibody. Seal power+digital rails in the channels and provide replaceable hubs at joints (which avoids some problems with CAN transceiver issues, and simplifies maintenance). Use plugs that can be sealed in place to connect sensors. The only wires, if any are needed, are between the sensor and a point on the frame, which might be a few centimeters apart.

Unibodies already are subject to replacement upon severe damage and the replaced part would include the data rails. Attached sensors could be disconnected and rewired or replaced. Fiber would be just as vulnerable to crash and transceivers would probably cost more, and it certainly wouldn't be less complex, other than perhaps EMI.

A lot of modern car design is a result of balancing complexity against maintenance cost. A lot of these factors will go away in a driverless electic world.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#119
Hop into our self-driving car! It was designed by a team of inexperienced developers working under a manager who foreshortened deadlines and delivered ahead of schedule and under budget! The software guys asked for crazy things like 'bug trackers' and 'static analysis tools', but we kept their nose to the grindstone. Some of them said the software required more testing, but you know software guys, always such nervous ninnies. Luckily we maintained the standard business practice of keeping every employee replacable so that there were no worries when we booted those guys.

Don't forget to read the fine print about the driver actually needing to keep their hands on the wheel and ready to correct the car should it do anything improper. You bear full responsibility for anything the car does. And have fun!

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#120

While I'm almost always bullish on new tech, self-driving cars are one where I frankly have a pretty hard time buying into the hype. I think when they really start to hit the streets, some issues are going to show up. Here's what I mean. Imagine this situation: You're pulling into your driveway in your self-driving car, and one of your kids left a lawn gnome there, blocking it. The car won't go forward because there'…

What if the jackass on the phone was in a self driving car that just stopped?
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