Everybody has opinions. Some of them become true, most don't.
A prescient footnote
51–60 of 80 posts
Re: A prescient footnote
#52Those footnotes have a mix of prescience and just plain wrong. For instance, there's one about how a good open source browser can fundamentally change the industry; and Firefox has in that time gained much ground and helped spur innovation in IE and across the web (as have WebKit and Chrome). However, Firefox was already underway by the time he wrote this, so that prediction isn't necessarily so forward looking. His…
And WebKit has certainly rejuvenated the mobile web industry.
Re: A prescient footnote
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
Something to that effect had been around for a while by then: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A/UX Apple has a wealth of fascinating abandoned projects.
When they fail, they fail with style. I'd love to have an A/UX box. Edit: didn't think of it this way when writing the above, but a unix kernel with an actual, Apple designed, Mac GUI on top was actually a failure... Go figure.
I've got an IIsi with A/UX on it. It's pretty neat, though a bit slow--9M of RAM isn't quite enough. I'd love to give you a hand setting up your own machine, let me know. :)
Re: A prescient footnote
#54Those footnotes have a mix of prescience and just plain wrong. For instance, there's one about how a good open source browser can fundamentally change the industry; and Firefox has in that time gained much ground and helped spur innovation in IE and across the web (as have WebKit and Chrome). However, Firefox was already underway by the time he wrote this, so that prediction isn't necessarily so forward looking. His…
And many people were hoping for an Apple iPod/phone for quite a while; see, for example, http://technologizer.com/2009/12/28/iphone-rumors/ (the first list of collected iPhone rumors I found in a google search).
This was published in 2009. Hackers and Painters came in 2004.
Re: A prescient footnote
#55Suppose you've made such a prediction about a tech company. How do you act on it? You can buy stock, of course, but is there a more powerful action available?
Sell the stock of its competitors short.
You have to know what their compeditors are. Pre iPhone, Apple's compeditors were Microsoft. The iPhone makes it look like Apple's compeditors now are Nokia/RIM (the makers of Blackberry). However a case could be made that Apple's current iPhone compeditor is or will be Google. So if you wanna bet on the iPhone, it's not clear who you should short.
Re: A prescient footnote
#56In hindsight if you do enough searching you can always find people who predicted, or appeared to predict, future events.
It depends how specific the predictions are. Anyone can make some vague Nostradamus type prediction. Whereas I actually take pride in my spring '07 analysis of why cell phone software was broken: http://alexkrupp.typepad.com/sensemaking/2007/05/cell_phone_... (Which isn't phrased as a prediction, but is basically equivalent in that it can only be proven or disproven by future events.) The funny thing is that the post…
A lot of your analysis applies with equal force today, and so has been falsified by intervening events. For example, you say: "Let's say that against all odds you get a few early adopters. To everyone else it will look like they are just sending text messages. Unlike the iPod, your software is invisible. Invisible software isn't viral." This is still true today (no one can tell what I'm doing while I fiddle with my phone).
You also say that "the next generation of WiFi will make your product obsolete in two years anyway." Well, it's been three years, and the next generation of WiFi hasn't made anything obsolete.
You also say this: "Cell phones don't fit into girl's pants. Remember how the women you asked said they would only use your software if it had a vibrate mode? Oops." I don't know if this is a prophecy that women won't use cell phones or what exactly it is.
Re: A prescient footnote
#57Those footnotes have a mix of prescience and just plain wrong. For instance, there's one about how a good open source browser can fundamentally change the industry; and Firefox has in that time gained much ground and helped spur innovation in IE and across the web (as have WebKit and Chrome). However, Firefox was already underway by the time he wrote this, so that prediction isn't necessarily so forward looking. His…
And many people were hoping for an Apple iPod/phone for quite a while; see, for example, http://technologizer.com/2009/12/28/iphone-rumors/ (the first list of collected iPhone rumors I found in a google search). This was published in 2009. Hackers and Painters came in 2004.
Er, that was a collection of rumors about an Apple phone from before the iPhone was released. Yes, it was collected after the release of the iPhone, but it's reporting on rumors and speculation from before the iPhone, including one from 2002: http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/19/technology/19APPL.html?pag...
"And now come signs that Mr. Jobs means to take Apple back to the land of the handhelds, but this time with a device that would combine elements of a cellphone and a Palm -like personal digital assistant."
Re: A prescient footnote
#58Alan Kay was heard to have said something along the lines of "Give this a 9-inch screen and you'll take over the world" when he first saw an iPhone.
My favorite one of these was from my favorite music band, The KLF, who after the success of "Doctor in the TARDIS" decided to write a book called The Manual, Or How to Have a Number One the Easy Way, which explains, as it says on the tin, how to go about producing a hit record without any money or musical talent.
One of the most impressive things about this book is this bit, from the section on coming up with a good catchy chorus for your smash hit, something people will remember:
Stock, Aitkin and Waterman, however, are kings of writing chorus lyrics that go straight to the emotional heart of the 7" single buying girls in this country. Their most successful records will kick into the chorus with a line which encapsulates the entire emotional meaning of the song. This will obviously be used as the title. As soon as Rick Astley hit the first line of the chorus on his debut single it was all over - the Number One position was guaranteed:
"I'm never going to give you up"
It says it all. It's what every girl in the land whatever her age wants to hear her dream man tell her. Then to follow that line with:
"I'm never gonna let you down I'm never going to fool around or upset you"
GENIUS.
Amazing. By two decades these guys anticipated mashups and the Rickroll.
Re: A prescient footnote
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you knew a technology was going to take off, learning their programming language/API and becoming a well-known expert on it could pay great dividends. Additionally, you could work there to make contacts and learn even more. Finally, you could try to join their developer programs while they are still in beta. Note that unlike suggestions to purchase stock in the company, this advice applies to technology at private…
are humanized forms of indentured servitude legal anymore? for example, could you pay to send someone to the bignerdranch bootcamp to learn iphone dev, but then have some way of mitigating the risk that they don't then go ahead and auction their new skills, acquired at your expense, on the market?
There are certain contracts you can make where you agree to work for X company for Y years if they pay for your education, or you have to pay them back for the cost. The U.S. Armed Forces does this with ROTC and the military academies. Several corporations will pay for an MBA if you come back to work for them afterwards, but you have to pony up the cash yourself if you choose not to work for them.
In all these cases, the choice is always "Work for us or pay us back" - I don't think you can structure a contract so that they must work for you without running afoul of the 13th amendment.
Re: A prescient footnote
#60Alan Kay was heard to have said something along the lines of "Give this a 9-inch screen and you'll take over the world" when he first saw an iPhone. My favorite one of these was from my favorite music band, The KLF, who after the success of "Doctor in the TARDIS" decided to write a book called The Manual, Or How to Have a Number One the Easy Way , which explains, as it says on the tin, how to go about producing a hit…
By two decades these guys anticipated mashups and the Rickroll.
No. The people who bought the single in 1987 were responding to the song very differently from the people who turned it into an internet meme 20 years later. The passage you quote describes the former; it doesn't predict the latter.