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Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

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Re: Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

#31

Post by jswinghammer »

borism wrote: post #18
jswinghammer wrote: post #3

Given that the whole capital structure is in a state of flux right now with the reality of deflation (the exit of money from the system) while massive inflation is going on at the same time (the creation of new money not the increase in prices) why should we expect much of anything good to come out of the next ten years? I think that a lot of people will take their ideas and implement them on a smaller scale and grow…

I think you're a bit confused about inflation vs. deflation. There's either one or the other, not both at the same time.

The overall trend is deflation. There is a massive amount of inflation occurring though. It's just happening at a slower rate than the rate of deflation.

Re: Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

#32

Post by liamk »

rlyboslavsky wrote: post #19
wheaties wrote: post #7

That's scary because Web 2.0 companies aren't the be-all end-all of the world. We're in a decidedly fantastic spot, don't get me wrong. However, people are going to need batteries that last longer, they'll want windows in their houses that change shade, or soil that repairs and replenishes itself (South America looking at you.) This type of thing takes the hard money web companies don't need. It's the real source of…

Tom Seibel once said during an interview at Stanford that Big Innovation in software is over. 90s won't come back and another startup of Microsoft/Google is unlikely. When asked what are the areas of future growth/innovation he said: energy, water management and green technologies. My take on this is that software has changed so much, that it became kind of enabling/supporting service that nobody can do anything with…

I'd disagree, Facebook is a great counter point to the "another startup of Microsoft/Google is unlikely". Every 2 years now software seems to be going through huge shifts (web => web 2.0/Cloud => mobile....). With each transition there is a chance to create another MSFT or GOOG.

Re: Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

#33

Post by Shorel »

http-kid wrote: post #23
rlyboslavsky wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tom Seibel once said during an interview at Stanford that Big Innovation in software is over. 90s won't come back and another startup of Microsoft/Google is unlikely. When asked what are the areas of future growth/innovation he said: energy, water management and green technologies. My take on this is that software has changed so much, that it became kind of enabling/supporting service that nobody can do anything with…

What's water management?

Watch this to get an idea of what it can be:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0804529/

Re: Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

#34

Post by all »

I am not trying to be smart, but the irony did strike me.

From Blank's "Lessons Learned", no.1: "Advice that’s more than 5 years old is obsolete."

The blurb under his "Posts from an Entrepreneurial Career: "Steve Blank's 30 years of Silicon Valley startup advice."

So, does that mean that 83% of his book is obsolete?

Re: Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

#35

Post by brc »

It's not just IPOs that have had a lost decade. All major US stock indices have not increased in value (inflation adjusted) since 2000. As an equities investor in the last decade, chance are you haven't made any money at all.

In 2000 some warned about a Japan-style slump, people said it coudn't happen. They still say that today, not realising, that, for 10 years, it's already true. Sure, there was a runup from about 03-07, but unless you got out at the top, you're back to where you started. And it's not just stock indices, it's also real estate and the number of jobs.

Re: Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

#36

Post by sblank »

all wrote: post #34

I am not trying to be smart, but the irony did strike me. From Blank's "Lessons Learned", no.1: "Advice that’s more than 5 years old is obsolete." The blurb under his "Posts from an Entrepreneurial Career: "Steve Blank's 30 years of Silicon Valley startup advice." So, does that mean that 83% of his book is obsolete?

at least half is. that's why the blog updates it with new thinking.

Re: Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

#37

Post by c00p3r »

rlyboslavsky wrote: post #19
wheaties wrote: post #7

That's scary because Web 2.0 companies aren't the be-all end-all of the world. We're in a decidedly fantastic spot, don't get me wrong. However, people are going to need batteries that last longer, they'll want windows in their houses that change shade, or soil that repairs and replenishes itself (South America looking at you.) This type of thing takes the hard money web companies don't need. It's the real source of…

Tom Seibel once said during an interview at Stanford that Big Innovation in software is over. 90s won't come back and another startup of Microsoft/Google is unlikely. When asked what are the areas of future growth/innovation he said: energy, water management and green technologies. My take on this is that software has changed so much, that it became kind of enabling/supporting service that nobody can do anything with…

1. iPhone.

2. Android.

Re: Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

#38

Post by c00p3r »

It could be called the end of PC era and personal computing in general. Look at this shift from general purpose desktop devices to specialized (TVs, consoles) and mobile ones.

Also the web is not something special nowadays. It is rather overloaded and boring. To many blogs, social networks which no one read anymore.

The web will remain, of course, the primary commercial media, that is why google buys that travel search service. Web is a perfect media for such services.

But it is not for a small, let alone individual players. So, we could speak rather about the end of PC-era, rather than lost decade of IT-investing.

It is a time to invest into a global services.

Re: Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

#39

Post by all »

sblank wrote: post #36
all wrote: post #34

I am not trying to be smart, but the irony did strike me. From Blank's "Lessons Learned", no.1: "Advice that’s more than 5 years old is obsolete." The blurb under his "Posts from an Entrepreneurial Career: "Steve Blank's 30 years of Silicon Valley startup advice." So, does that mean that 83% of his book is obsolete?

at least half is. that's why the blog updates it with new thinking.

Thanks for clarifying. Thanks also for your blog, from which I have learned much.

Re: Welcome to the Lost Decade (for Entrepreneurs, IPOs, and VCs)

#40

Post by gojomo »

_delirium wrote: post #30
gojomo wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Higher accounting costs and legal risks every year of being a public company doesn't make being a public company less attractive? Companies don't care about expenses?

They're not irrelevant, but we're seeing a margin much bigger than they could account for. If there were companies that today could exit with 1990s-style $500m IPOs, I don't think they would walk away from them because of SOX. They're not having those IPOs because there are very few companies today that could convince investors to pay $500m for their stock. Those who do have a business model, outlook, and revenues th…

I agree that SOX alone is not enough to explain the dearth of IPOs. A least for 2008-2010, the housing/financial crash seems a much bigger culprit.

At the margin, though, SOX's costs cause private companies to delay going public, and provide a relative advantage to older/larger/already-public companies -- acquirers -- for whom compliance costs are proportionately smaller.

And since the cycle of IPOs depends on emulating prior successes, even a small initial effect could depress the follow-on rate for years.

Google is sui generis, the most successful venture-backed company of the past 30 years. If being 'like Google' is the yardstick to IPO, the system is seriously broken.

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