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The Cryptocurrency Singularity

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Re: The Cryptocurrency Singularity

#51
post #33

Rothbard's History of Money and Banking in the United States: The Colonial Era to World War II [1] wades through hundreds of years of Gresham's Law in action. Special attention is devoted to par laws and legal tender laws in exacerbating the tendency of banks to print more notes than there is metal in the vault. [1] https://mises.org/library/history-money-and-banking-united-s... (free audio book, epub, and pdf availa…

Aw, you had me until mises.org. I prefer to get my economics from reputable sources.

Seriously? I was of the opinion that Hacker News readers had enough intellectual fortitude to evaluate content on its merits.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Singularity

#52
post #36

I don't understand how someone can talk about making everyday purchases with BTC without addressing the transaction fees and confirmation times. Doesn't it currently cost several dollars to spend a dollar? Is there some reason to think that in the far future confirmation times and transaction fees will trend towards zero?

Bitcoin is not the only cryptocurrency, and not all cryptocurrencies are based on a blockchain data-structure. There are other currencies which are not-inflationary, trustless and decentralized, and many more currencies with various levels of those properties, some are more centralized and require trust in a few in various ways, and some are decentralized trust-less but still inflationary. There is even cryptocurrenc…

Sure, but this is an article specifically about BTC; none of its conclusions hold for cryptocurrencies generally. I guess it just seems really deceptive to talk about fiat's "hidden cost" of inflation while ignoring BTC's not-at-all-hidden cost.

Similarly, I'm unclear on why confirmation times aren't considered a serious problem. It seems like BTC enthusiasts like to discuss a hypothetical future in which the BTC infrastructure is so mature that you can buy coffee without worrying about fees and confirmation times, but I don't see how we get there from here. Either the payment takes hours to confirm (leaving the coffee shop vulnerable to double-spending) or it goes through an off-chain processor (who would demand to know my identity). Either way you're losing one of the main selling points of using a cryptocurrency in the first place.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Singularity

#53
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin is not "better" than fiat currencies, it's worse in every way except for the fact that it is not operated by a central authority. In terms of convenience, security, and ease of use it is clearly worse. The world does need a "back channel" currency, and bitcoin is a perfect fit for this, but it will never move beyond that because there's simply no reason for the masses to use it.

> it's worse in every way except for the fact that it is not operated by a central authority. -It is lighter--I can carry it in my head -It travels faster -It is not inflated by 2% a year -It cannot be forged -It can cross borders

It is inflated but currently its value gain masks that.

You cannot carry those big numbers in your head comfortably. Heck, it is tricky to carry a wallet ID. Even trickier to get a physical transaction done with BTC.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Singularity

#54

Whenever I read articles like this I'm reminded of this quote by Richard Buckminster Fuller "You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete." IMHO this is what Bitcoin is all about. Not a get-rich-quick scheme or whatever insults some people throw at it, but a sound, arguably better alternative to fiat currencies. Aside: If you h…

Bitcoin is not "better" than fiat currencies, it's worse in every way except for the fact that it is not operated by a central authority. In terms of convenience, security, and ease of use it is clearly worse. The world does need a "back channel" currency, and bitcoin is a perfect fit for this, but it will never move beyond that because there's simply no reason for the masses to use it.

> In terms of convenience, security, and ease of use it (Bitcoin) is clearly worse.

Not just that, but most importantly in term of scalability.

At the moment we have less than 5,000 transactions per 10 minutes, which are less than 100 per second. Compared to what old-fashioned fiat banks handle, this is a joke.

Bitcoin does have its place in the world, but not as a full substitute of fiat currencies.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Singularity

#55
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin is not "better" than fiat currencies, it's worse in every way except for the fact that it is not operated by a central authority. In terms of convenience, security, and ease of use it is clearly worse. The world does need a "back channel" currency, and bitcoin is a perfect fit for this, but it will never move beyond that because there's simply no reason for the masses to use it.

> it's worse in every way except for the fact that it is not operated by a central authority. -It is lighter--I can carry it in my head -It travels faster -It is not inflated by 2% a year -It cannot be forged -It can cross borders

You memorized your bitcoin wallet address? And yes it's not inflated 2% a year, but it's also very far from stable. How can a merchant pin a bitcoin price on his goods if the currency swings dramatically in value week to week?

Re: The Cryptocurrency Singularity

#56
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's worse in every way except for the fact that it is not operated by a central authority. -It is lighter--I can carry it in my head -It travels faster -It is not inflated by 2% a year -It cannot be forged -It can cross borders

You memorized your bitcoin wallet address? And yes it's not inflated 2% a year, but it's also very far from stable. How can a merchant pin a bitcoin price on his goods if the currency swings dramatically in value week to week?

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Brainwallet

I think it may be that bitcoin makes a better gold than cash, but it remains to be seen. Volatility is trending down, long-term.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Singularity

#57
post #9

I think there's a critical discussion about inflation vs deflation missing from this article. Inflation is bad, but so is deflation because it encourages saving your money which, in turn, hurts liquidity in the marketplace (i.e. the amount of cash freely flowing around). Liquidity is essential to keep the economy moving. Isn't what we want really a currency with just a little bit of inflation that keeps people spendi…

This is a really good point. Why would anyone spend their crypto on amazon if it could be worth 30% more in a week?

By that rationale, why would anyone buy a flatscreen TV today, when they know they could wait a few months and it would be a lot cheaper?

Re: The Cryptocurrency Singularity

#58
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's worse in every way except for the fact that it is not operated by a central authority. -It is lighter--I can carry it in my head -It travels faster -It is not inflated by 2% a year -It cannot be forged -It can cross borders

It is inflated but currently its value gain masks that. You cannot carry those big numbers in your head comfortably. Heck, it is tricky to carry a wallet ID. Even trickier to get a physical transaction done with BTC.

See my link about brainwallets above.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Singularity

#59
Software is eating the world.

Those who think a digital currency of some kind _won't_ displace cash are going to be made fools.

About the article ... there are a lot of questions here.

I guess the main thrust of the article is that Bitcoin's volatility is declining, and thus it is becoming more attractive for use as a tool for buying lunch (where lunch is a stand-in for common day-to-day transactions). That hinges on the idea that Bitcoin wasn't attractive for that purpose before, because its value was too volatile.

1) The graph the article uses to demonstrate that Bitcoin is becoming less volatile seems to indicate, to me, that Bitcoin is just as volatile as it ever was. If I'm reading the graph correctly, the average of volatility is the same, but the std deviation of volatility has been decreasing. In other words, Bitcoin is just as volatile, but it's more consistently volatile. That's ... a weird metric to measure. Either I'm reading the graph incorrectly, or OP is.

2) The OP says "I wanted to keep them because Bitcoin has, since its inception, on average increased in value at about 150% per year". So why bring up volatility? Volatility isn't relevant to whether Bitcoin goes up in value over time or not. It's clear that, as long as Bitcoin continues to be useful, it will continue to deflate long term. So it's clear that Bitcoin will always have this "issue".

3) But that presumes that deflation is an issue to begin with. Is it? I'm naive on the subject. For the majority of human history we used deflationary currencies; precious metals. The world didn't stop turning then. But then the question is, are inflationary currencies better? Is our modern use of them an evolution, then?

On the one hand, we can think of it as horrible that the majority of people are storing their value in a currency that is decreasing in value over time. Their work, their labor, earns them wealth that decreases over time. That's disturbing.

But maybe it _should_ be that way? Having people store their wealth in inflationary stores of value implies that work is only valuable in the immediate time frame. And that kind of makes sense. A burger I flip today is valuable today, but not so much years from now, let alone decades from now. Paying me a deflationary currency today for that burger flip is weird, then, because you've traded something that increases in value over time for something that decreases in value over time.

So you could argue that in today's economy employers trade cash, something that decreases in value over time, for work that also decreases in value over time. And ... doesn't that make sense?

And yet, if given the opportunity and knowledge, wouldn't everyone want to store their value in deflationary vehicles? And if that's the case, wouldn't everyone, as the article implies, only _have_ deflationary vehicles to trade with ... so we'd just re-evolve to using deflationary currencies again.

Does the average person even _know_ that their currency is inflationary? I doubt it. Maybe the choice of deflationary/inflationary doesn't even matter.

I dunno, it's just a complicated question. I don't think it's clear cut that a deflationary currency is better or worse.

My point is, the deflationary property of Bitcoin doesn't necessarily preclude its use as a daily driver. Volatility sure might, but deflation I'm not so sure.

It's probably irrelevant to the average person. The average person will see value in replacing HSBC, who would normally freeze their bank account randomly and destroy their business.

4) It's important to mention that, at this point, we have reason to believe that Bitcoin and clones based on its model can never be used to buy lunch (and other such small transactions). The cost of decentralization is too high, and we have no way to decrease those costs by the orders of magnitude needed to handle the transactional loads of things like buying lunch. We are working to decrease them, and have recently succeeded in a modest improvement on the Bitcoin network, but orders of magnitude is ... out of reach without some massive innovation.

It's more likely that on-top-of networks like Lightning Network and its evolutions built on top of Bitcoin will be the thing people interact with on a daily basis.

The average person will get their paycheck in Bitcoin, but do their daily transactions using IOU networks like Lightning that settle behind the scenes on a less frequent basis. This allows the average person to use Bitcoin as their store of value, giving them by default the advantages that traditionally only a small fraction of the population have had, but still allowing cheap daily transactions for buying lunch.

That doesn't change the meaning of the article. But it's important to mention how Bitcoin is evolving to fulfill the future the article proposes.

So ... maybe that's the future. Or maybe a side chain will evolve with inflationary properties and we just use that to buy lunch and get paid. Maybe every country will have their own cryptocurrency, pseudo-centrally controlled, with atomic swaps for global trade.

But one thing I know for sure. Software is eating the world. You either choose to ride that wave, or you get eaten by it.

Re: The Cryptocurrency Singularity

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a really good point. Why would anyone spend their crypto on amazon if it could be worth 30% more in a week?

By that rationale, why would anyone buy a flatscreen TV today, when they know they could wait a few months and it would be a lot cheaper?

exactly that sort of thing DOES happen though - particularly with goods that have planned obsolescence cycles annually, so I'm not sure it's even a good comparison in the first place TBH

Think of it more from a general level and on even bigger purchases like a house. Everyone stopping buying houses for a year because they think sitting on their own currency (regardless of interest rates and the housing market) will make it cheaper is not a good thing.

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