I live in the Turks and Caicos Islands (Providenciales). We were lucky hurricane Matthew missed us last year, I suspect however that we won't be so lucky with Irma. It's worrisome to say the least.
Good luck out there, and stay safe.
Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
#52Oof. This is ramping up to be quite the hurricane/monsoon season. I don't know much about meteorology, so I'll post this without comment besides the article's subject; maybe someone else can make an informed value judgement. But apparently as global temperatures rise, the atmosphere is going to be able to hold a lot more water: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/the-stra...
Cliff Mass (whose blog is really worth following) points out that this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards. There is not a big temperature anomaly in the waters fueling these storms: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/global-warming-and-hur...
In other words, this is the kind of storm season you can expect to get once in a while even before factoring in the effect of warming seas.
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
#53You can see a visualization of the approaching hurricane here: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/ort...
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
#54I know that this is slightly off-topic so feel free to downvote if you feel so inclined: There's a lot of money that goes into disaster relief and recovery. I think that's great and very worthwhile, thoughts on charity accountability notwithstanding. What I wonder, though, is if there are any organizations that provide pre-relief (prelief?) for disasters. For instance, the comment in this discussion about the airline…
It isn't feasible, but the reasons are weather prediction, not economics. Those who live in hurricane reasons are warned far enough in advance to evacuate 10 times every year. Many years not even one hurricane turns out big enough that an evacuation was required, and even when one does turn out that big, that vast majority of the land that was warned is never affected. When we can accurately predict 1 week in advance…
Consider also that the strong political incentive is to order evacuations at every opportunity. If the storm fizzles out or veers off-course, the politician can say "Better safe than sorry" and be no worse for the wear. If the storm turns out worse than expected, however, and the politician did not order an evacuation, he will be eviscerated no matter what.
This means it is always politically expedient to "cry wolf" over anything with any potential significance, which only makes _meaningful_ evacuation orders less heeded.
At this point, we're 5 days out from the storm hitting the continental US, and they still don't really know whether it will hit Florida or not; it could still veer into either the Atlantic or the Gulf.
Where I live in Central FL, people are already hoarding gasoline, food, and water, and it may turn into Mad Max before the storm even hits. Heeding warnings is great but per usual, it seems to be one extreme or the other...
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
#55I hate to inject politics into this, but Red States are about to learn that elections have consequences.
> Eschew flamebait. Don't introduce flamewar topics unless you have something genuinely new to say. Avoid unrelated controversies and generic tangents.
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wonder how flat is the houston area. West indies are often volcanic islands. Meaning the high ground will probably be "safe" from flood, the lower parts on the other hands.. Somehow they're a bit used to storms so they're not going full noob on this.
Houston is some of the flattest land you'll find in the states, but at least we're not quite below sea level. I'm from Austin, and have lived in Tokyo, and I used to joke while in Tokyo you'd go stir-crazy missing trees and greenery, despite the large parks there; in Houston you go crazy missing hills and topography if you're used to it.
Heh, I remember coming back from Martinique, I landed in Paris, and while we were driving I was a bit lost, there were no up and downs anymore; everything was sooo flat.
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
#57Oof. This is ramping up to be quite the hurricane/monsoon season. I don't know much about meteorology, so I'll post this without comment besides the article's subject; maybe someone else can make an informed value judgement. But apparently as global temperatures rise, the atmosphere is going to be able to hold a lot more water: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/the-stra...
Cliff Mass (whose blog is really worth following) points out that this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards. There is not a big temperature anomaly in the waters fueling these storms: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/global-warming-and-hur... In other words, this is the kind of storm season you can expect to get once in a while even before factoring in the effect of warming seas.
Please note that the Cliff Mass blog post you linked to is not about the hurricane discussed here. Also note that your summary of his post ("this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards") is misleading as that is not the topic or conclusion of that piece.
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
Cliff Mass (whose blog is really worth following) points out that this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards. There is not a big temperature anomaly in the waters fueling these storms: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/global-warming-and-hur... In other words, this is the kind of storm season you can expect to get once in a while even before factoring in the effect of warming seas.
Please note that the Cliff Mass blog post you linked to is not about the hurricane discussed here. Also note that your summary of his post ("this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards") is misleading as that is not the topic or conclusion of that piece.
Look at the weekly SST temperature anomaly along Irma's track and you'll see the argument carries over.
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
#59I know that this is slightly off-topic so feel free to downvote if you feel so inclined: There's a lot of money that goes into disaster relief and recovery. I think that's great and very worthwhile, thoughts on charity accountability notwithstanding. What I wonder, though, is if there are any organizations that provide pre-relief (prelief?) for disasters. For instance, the comment in this discussion about the airline…
FiveThirtyEight had an interesting piece on how politicians have stronger incentives to provide relief after disasters than prepare for them before hand.
You can read it at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/disaster-politics-can-g... .
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
#60I really need to fill up my truck before there's another post hurricane price hike.
Reported price gouging to the AG last year after Matthew -- gas station charging over $5/gal. Months later, they sent back a form letter with generic information about the definition of price gouging ("it is unlawful to sell [commodities] for an amount that grossly exceeds the average price for that commodity during the 30 days before the declaration of the state of emergency").
Was not impressed with the enforcement. So yes, good to fill up early.