Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close” • Hacker News Board

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#441

Post by upvotinglurker » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 3:55 PM UTC

joshuamorton wrote: post #100

skywhopper wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's important to point out that the WayMo project in Phoenix is only barely getting started, only serves limited areas, at limited times, and presumably in limited weather conditions; and most importantly that there's still a human driver in the vehicle at all times. A full-scale metro-wide service would need to operate at all hours, in most any weather, and without a human driver. That's not happening within four y…

>WayMo project in Phoenix is only barely getting started, only serves limited areas, Sure but is this because of capability or number of vehicles? >at limited times, Sure, because drivers don't want to work late at night. >and presumably in limited weather conditions; Why's that? >and most importantly that there's still a human driver in the vehicle at all times. Sure, but this isn't due to capability, but for regula…

>>and presumably in limited weather conditions; >Why's that?

Because Phoenix has extremely low precipitation: http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/phoenix/arizona/united-...

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#442

Post by jessriedel » Sat, Sep 02, 2017, 5:32 PM UTC

ilaksh wrote: post #431

jessriedel wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is no way that we will be waiting until 2022 for this to be deployed How sure would you say you are? Want to put some money on that?

Before 2022? Yes, I should take that wager. The tricky part about a wager is that it gives people a strong incentive to reinterpret events to their advantage, and its tough to define this in an objective way. Even if it is defined objectively there is ambiguity in language and again they may not realize they disagree on what they are wagering about. But maybe in a few days when I get paid again I could make a wager i…

You seem to have a more liberal interpretation of "somewhat limited" than I do.

I have ascribed a 45% chance to this statement, and last year bet $500 against it taking place:

"By July 2023, a self-driving car can be reliably hailed by a member of the general public in at least 10 North American cities. At least 8 cities must be outside the San Fransisco Bay Area. The car must available on at least 50% of days, i.e., not confined to very narrow weather or traffic situations. No back-up human may be physically present to take over in an emergency."

http://blog.jessriedel.com/2016/04/

Would you bet on that happening by July 2022? I would take on another $500.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#443

Post by ilaksh » Sat, Sep 02, 2017, 11:08 PM UTC

jessriedel wrote: post #442

ilaksh wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before 2022? Yes, I should take that wager. The tricky part about a wager is that it gives people a strong incentive to reinterpret events to their advantage, and its tough to define this in an objective way. Even if it is defined objectively there is ambiguity in language and again they may not realize they disagree on what they are wagering about. But maybe in a few days when I get paid again I could make a wager i…

You seem to have a more liberal interpretation of "somewhat limited" than I do. I have ascribed a 45% chance to this statement, and last year bet $500 against it taking place: "By July 2023, a self-driving car can be reliably hailed by a member of the general public in at least 10 North American cities. At least 8 cities must be outside the San Fransisco Bay Area. The car must available on at least 50% of days, i.e.,…

50% of days in any city means it can handle Minnesota snow and ice.

As you have stated it, implying the car can go anywhere at any time (no constraints on routes mentioned) and is available in most major cities, that's very speculative that it would be deployed to that degree.

It will be deployed within a few years although with some reasonable constraints and it will be extremely useful even with those constraints.

Edit: Actually, looking at that statement again, some of what I read as implied is actually just ambiguous. I would make the bet if I could correct the ambiguous parts to be more realistic.