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New Uber CEO Says Company Could Go Public in 18 Months

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Re: New Uber CEO Says Company Could Go Public in 18 Months

#31

Post by frgtpsswrdlame »

fosk wrote: post #19
frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that Travis thinks it's still possible to defend their monopolistic market share but I'd bet (just personal opinion) that investors don't feel that way. Honestly, what could Uber do to ensure their monopolistic world market share would last? They want to IPO soon so they can get some return. Uber has had years and billions of dollars, I don't blame investors for wanting to push the bird out of the nest…

Of course Travis still thinks that, he is the founder. He cares about the long term survival of Uber, not about an exit event. Uber is in a complicated industry, in complicated times with very aggressive competitors. It just takes time, but somebody is unwilling to wait anymore. The bird cannot fly, we already know that. They are crashing Uber against a wall and they just don't care. Do you know what's going to be th…

But that doesn't really answer my question, which is what can delaying IPO actually do for them? I agree that the bird can't fly but I don't see how it's going to fly in 18 months or 80 months and I don't see a way around that. Uber exists in a market with no barriers to entry (it destroyed them) and it can't run a profit. Kalanick himself has said Uber needs self-driving but I'm a skeptic on that as well. It's 20+ years before there's going to be real, safe cars without drivers. Kalanick is delaying the inevitable, investors are trying to cash out before the public realizes self-driving is vaporware.

Re: New Uber CEO Says Company Could Go Public in 18 Months

#32

Post by CodeWriter23 »

otakucode wrote: post #21

Do not invest in Uber. It would be downright stupid to do so. What is their product? Providing rides? No, that's what drivers do. Ubers product is running a bunch of servers, a mobile app, and bearing the first-mover disadvantage of fighting with all the regulators about ridesharing. The problem with this is that those servers and that app? The thing that collects the money for Uber? No one needs Uber for that. Tomor…

Their market position is worth something, if played correctly. When you go to Target now, the only cleanser option is Comet. 30 years ago, there were at least 4 choices. The ride share industry will undergo a similar consolidation.

Re: New Uber CEO Says Company Could Go Public in 18 Months

#33

Post by uberemployee »

CodeWriter23 wrote: post #25
uberemployee wrote: post #15

Guys this is somewhat fake news. The question was what his thoughts were on IPO. He basically said it's up to the board, but 18 to 36 months seemed reasonable. It wasn't like he's actually planning on IPOing in 18 months, it was an off-the-cuff response and gave a ballpark figure. That's all, don't read too much into it he hasn't even officially started yet.

The real news is this is precisely why TK was ousted. He was categorically opposed to taking Uber public, and that went against the wishes of big investors who want an IPO payday.

He wasn't opposed to taking Uber public, he wanted to delay IPO as long as possible because going public places restrictions on how the company is run. Dara said the same comment. But 18-36 months doesn't go against anything TK said.

Re: New Uber CEO Says Company Could Go Public in 18 Months

#34

Post by gadlash »

uberemployee wrote: post #15

Guys this is somewhat fake news. The question was what his thoughts were on IPO. He basically said it's up to the board, but 18 to 36 months seemed reasonable. It wasn't like he's actually planning on IPOing in 18 months, it was an off-the-cuff response and gave a ballpark figure. That's all, don't read too much into it he hasn't even officially started yet.

Not fake news, more like Clickbaity title.

Re: New Uber CEO Says Company Could Go Public in 18 Months

#35

Post by CodeWriter23 »

koolba wrote: post #30
otakucode wrote: post #21

Do not invest in Uber. It would be downright stupid to do so. What is their product? Providing rides? No, that's what drivers do. Ubers product is running a bunch of servers, a mobile app, and bearing the first-mover disadvantage of fighting with all the regulators about ridesharing. The problem with this is that those servers and that app? The thing that collects the money for Uber? No one needs Uber for that. Tomor…

> Ubers product is running a bunch of servers, a mobile app, and bearing the first-mover disadvantage of fighting with all the regulators about ridesharing. So if we /s/ridesharing/home renting/ then we shouldn't invest in AirBnB either?

You shouldn't invest in AirBNB because cities can't withstand inflated housing prices forever and will eventually crack down on "home sharing" aka real estate arbitrage in the short term rental market.

Re: New Uber CEO Says Company Could Go Public in 18 Months

#37

Post by sumeno »

bhouston wrote: post #8
ProAm wrote: post #7

IPO would really just be a way to cash out investors with no real return on the horizon for the new shareholders? Speaking from their current burn rate, lawsuit, potential new technology/driverless cars.

At much as you may hate Uber it is an unstoppable juggernaut. Being profitable is not impossible and settling everything is just a question of money, and fairly small sums at that. It may not be worth $100B, but it is going to be worth a ton.

Their plan for profitability so far has been "invent a ground breaking technology that will change the world before we run out of money in a couple years". That sounds more like delusions of grandeur than unstoppable juggernaut. Hopefully that changes under Khosrowshahi.

Uber may well yet become an unstoppable juggernaut, but they could just as easily flame in spectacular fashion.

Re: New Uber CEO Says Company Could Go Public in 18 Months

#38

Post by mahyarm »

CodeWriter23 wrote: post #25
uberemployee wrote: post #15

Guys this is somewhat fake news. The question was what his thoughts were on IPO. He basically said it's up to the board, but 18 to 36 months seemed reasonable. It wasn't like he's actually planning on IPOing in 18 months, it was an off-the-cuff response and gave a ballpark figure. That's all, don't read too much into it he hasn't even officially started yet.

The real news is this is precisely why TK was ousted. He was categorically opposed to taking Uber public, and that went against the wishes of big investors who want an IPO payday.

Profitability is usually a good idea before you IPO.

Re: New Uber CEO Says Company Could Go Public in 18 Months

#39

Post by kingnothing »

tyingq wrote: post #14
Bretts89 wrote: post #13

It's about time their investors get a massive liquidity event. I tend to think the lack of an near term exit strategy was one of many reasons Travis got the boot.

18 months isn't much time to present financials that would support a high IPO price though, is it? I assume the current financials still show pretty big losses due to the subsidized pricing.

https://www.axios.com/exclusive-uber-financials-2475912645.h...

Re: New Uber CEO Says Company Could Go Public in 18 Months

#40

Post by dkimmer »

When it comes to Uber's future, there's good news and bad news. The good news is that none of the "scandals" we've heard so much about matter. Not the culture, not the lawsuits, not even the firing of the CEO. None of those things would be able to sink the company, assuming that the company has a strong business model. And that's where we get to the bad news: Uber doesn't HAVE a business model.

Nothing about Uber makes hired car rides fundamentally cheaper than anything before it. Cars still cost the same amount of money to buy/rent and operate. That cost hasn't gone away, even in the iPhone era. If Uber is not paying those costs directly, then someone is. In the Uber model, it's just been transferred to the driver, for whom driving is as a result less profitable. So much for the car. The other component of a ride service is the driver himself. A driver's undivided time costs the same, whether he's driving for Uber or for an Uber clone or for a local taxi company. Human labor hasn't suddenly gotten cheaper just because you can hail them on your iPhone. And you don't even want the cheapest possible labor here, for the sake of your own safety.

Oh, but you say, if the drivers were to be entirely replaced with self-driving cars, then Uber's margins would be amazing right? Yes, they would be. But self-driving cars are not coming anytime soon. Just ask the people most invested in Uber: the investors. They want you to wait for self-driving cars to fix Uber's non-existent business model, while they themselves can't wait to cash out as soon as possible.

Even if it does happen many years from now, it doesn't put Uber in a good position. The self-driving car technology will be a commodity. There will be no barrier preventing anyone else from launching their own fleets. Uber's product also has no network effect and is not sticky. Its customers are not buying an experience, they are buying a utility (a ride from point A to point B at the lowest possible cost). As a result, customers have zero loyalty and are happy to switch to the lowest cost competitor.

Uber has hugely impressive numbers though right? Yes, tons of revenue and no profits. Because who would pass up a private car ride from San Francisco to Palo Alto for $45 when a taxi would cost $125? As long as VC's subsidize rides, customers will continue to buy them.

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