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What We Get Wrong About Technology

timharford.com

11–20 of 127 posts

Re: What We Get Wrong About Technology

#11
post #9

I suspect that it is easy to fixate on fantasies of massive technological leaps forward, because the truly revolutionary changes that underpin our lives are like air: so common that we overlook them all the time. If you were to sit down with a person from, say, 1750, and wanted to explain the modern world, you would probably tell them about things like antibiotics, cars and planes, snapchat, that sort of thing. All t…

And yet the supermarket is very much possible only because of the technologies behind planes, antibiotics and snapchat. It's curious.

I think the hard part, as noted, is not necessarily the materialization of 'new tech', but very much how that tech plays with all the other new tech to produce a very new society. And in that you are exactly right, the most curious parts of that new society are not the technological tools themselves, but the social capabilities that spring from their convergence - the supermarket.

I work at the convergence of tech and synthetic biology, and a huge 'miss' many suffer is a blindness to just how powerfully the two technologies will interconnect in the near future - and not the tech as the product, but the capabilities of their convergence. It's not that computers, AI and all that jazz will become small and invisible, nor that genomics and biology will become easy, but actually what will occur at their intersection. It's that fun space mixed with both where things get really interesting.

And this is why reading sci-fi is fun for me. It allows an author to explore the clashes, implications and make prognostications on the outcomes of the convergence of multiple technologies with respect to relatable characters' choices in their lives.

Re: What We Get Wrong About Technology

#12
The article mentions "Jennifer", which is the real-world implementation of Marshall Brain's "Manna 1.0". Here's a video of it in action.[1]

This is another example of "machines should think, people should work.". The computer is the boss. That may be the future.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC-ReBX0icU

Re: What We Get Wrong About Technology

#13
Technology almost never advances directly. Predicting the future would be easy if things simply improved by 1% per year across the board.

Tech advances are always a series of lateral moves. Where the last innovation allows for the next new thing. Or more commonly a massive expansion of an existing concept.

Re: What We Get Wrong About Technology

#15
post #9

I suspect that it is easy to fixate on fantasies of massive technological leaps forward, because the truly revolutionary changes that underpin our lives are like air: so common that we overlook them all the time. If you were to sit down with a person from, say, 1750, and wanted to explain the modern world, you would probably tell them about things like antibiotics, cars and planes, snapchat, that sort of thing. All t…

>So as we look forward, the question is, what will be obvious to people ten or twenty years from now?

I think far more useful question is asking what should be obvious right now that you aren't seeing. That is, unless you're trying to gamble on who will win the Super Bowl in 2025 or something equally inane.

Re: What We Get Wrong About Technology

#16
post #12

The article mentions "Jennifer", which is the real-world implementation of Marshall Brain's "Manna 1.0". Here's a video of it in action.[1] This is another example of "machines should think, people should work.". The computer is the boss. That may be the future. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC-ReBX0icU

"People can do the work... so that machines have time to think." - B(if)tek.

Re: What We Get Wrong About Technology

#17
post #3

Payphones could make a comeback, and the "payphone" was really a public videophone. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-YBYzo4XUY Deckard calls Rachael on a public videophone. from script: http://www.trussel.com/bladerun.htm

Public videophones could be made right now, if we wanted. Problem is that nobody wants them because they are less convenient than the simpler alternatives.

Re: What We Get Wrong About Technology

#19
If you enjoyed this article, Tim Harford (the author) also has a podcast series called 50 Things That Made The Modern Economy[0] which expands on pretty much every one of the inventions mentioned in the post. The episodes are roughly 10 minutes long, well produced, and always cite the source material. Worth listening to.

[0] http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04b1g3c/episodes/downloads

Re: What We Get Wrong About Technology

#20
post #17
post #3

Payphones could make a comeback, and the "payphone" was really a public videophone. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-YBYzo4XUY Deckard calls Rachael on a public videophone. from script: http://www.trussel.com/bladerun.htm

Public videophones could be made right now, if we wanted. Problem is that nobody wants them because they are less convenient than the simpler alternatives.

The simpler alternatives involve having to pay a monthly fee or having to pre-pay for minutes. In the future, perhaps we won't have the luxury of paying for a lot of service we haven't yet used and might not need to use.
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