Earlier quoted context omitted.
Planes are mostly automated. The pilots are involved for takeoff and landing or emergencies, but little else. All modern Airbus or Boeing planes are mostly flown with autopilot. The human component is still involved primarily for the "what if it breaks" case where the software isn't there today. A computer would likely have never considered putting a plane into the Hudson river, but that pilot saved a lot of people b…
There's also automated take off. Fighter pilots taking off carriers have to grab a couple of handlebars in the cockpit, whose purpose is only that the pilot doesn't instinctively intervene during take off.
Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”
231–240 of 443 posts
Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”
#232Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree with the analogy to speech recognition. What makes speech recognition difficult is that it's highly dependent on context (sounds the same, but means something different depending on surrounding words, what the conversation is about, or even who you're speaking with). With driving, you should be able to make a good decision with just the instantaneous state, given enough information about that state (object…
Im skeptical you can do real autonomous driving without context. In DC, we have roads that flow one direction part of the day and another direction the other part. We've got roads that will be shut down unpredictably when there is a diplomatic event. We've got constant construction, where a two lane road might be reduced to one lane with a human holding a sign or using hand signals to usher cars through on their turn…
The situations you describe are rare - I've once had a diplomatic event that required weird rerouting and twice had cases where traffic was regulated by hand signals due to some crash on the road, but that means just a few cases over a whole lifetime. A system that can't solve these cases but recognizes them as unsolvable is a quite acceptable automated system if it can delegate control to a human inside or a remote dispatcher, which isn't that hard to do.
Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”
#233Earlier quoted context omitted.
You've hit the nail on the head - audio recognition is quite poor after (a lot of) concerted effort over decades. Driving a car safely is significantly more difficult (and dangerous). That being said, Toyota's (and Subaru's) approach is the smart way forward - add sensors and capabilities that augment the human, but leave the human always responsible and in control. In order for a crash to happen, the human AND the m…
I don't know by what metrics you're making these comparisons. Audio recognition and self-driving vehicles are apples and oranges. Autonomous driving is difficult primarily because of a changing world and low tolerance for mistakes. The state space of situations you're trying to map is just large. It will take time. But it's not even close to impossible. Audio recognition is difficult for a different reason: language…
Voice recognition is getting just barely tolerable. If you have tried to do something important using voice recognition you'd probably go bat shit crazy after a while. If it had the potential to kill people no sane human would allow it.
Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”
#234Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's no good reason to automate trains right now, aside for the sake of automating them. It would take a lot of cash to accomplish and it would put us exactly where we are now.
Here's a reason: If trains were automated, low-demand lines with long headway (i.e. 2 hours and more) could be serviced more frequently (with proportionally shorter trains) with about the same amount of fuel usage. A shorter headway will make the line more attractive and increase passenger numbers.
All of that work to support a small rail line? It might never pay off.
Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”
#235Maybe I'm ignorant (very likely) but I've never understood the difference between full autonomous driving and a fully intelligent AI. If a car can drive in any environment and react to any circumstances surely said AI could also do anything else, no? EDIT: Thanks for the responses everyone. Though, to clarify, when I think of "full autonomous" driving, I'm thinking of a car that can go from A to B regardless of the c…
Animals are very good at responding to specific situations with fixed action patterns.
Humans are very good at adapting to new situations by training new action patterns.
Self driving cars tread far more in the territory of machine learning than AI. AI involves ML, but ML doesn't necessarily involve proper AI. ML is essentially creating a framework of existing data that the computer can apply to similar situations. This is why you hear terminology like "training a dataset" in ML -- you are just telling it to act upon new situations in as similar of a capacity as possible to previous situations.
AI to me is a very different thing, in that it doesn't require structured inputs and outputs. Even as chaotic as autonomous driving is, it's still a structured system that takes inputs about road rules and surrounding objects and aligns the car with an outcome where it follows road rules and doesn't hit anything.
True AI is a machine that can reason for itself in unstructured situations, which would likely involve ML that is very good at making inferences about how existing data applies to tangentially related situations. I'm sure at some point there will be a distinction between AI that aims to create outcomes as similar as possible to human decision making (perhaps it could be trained by you to make decisions the way you would), and AI that aims to emulate human thought process literally down to the neurotransmitter level.
Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”
#236Earlier quoted context omitted.
You've hit the nail on the head - audio recognition is quite poor after (a lot of) concerted effort over decades. Driving a car safely is significantly more difficult (and dangerous). That being said, Toyota's (and Subaru's) approach is the smart way forward - add sensors and capabilities that augment the human, but leave the human always responsible and in control. In order for a crash to happen, the human AND the m…
I don't know by what metrics you're making these comparisons. Audio recognition and self-driving vehicles are apples and oranges. Autonomous driving is difficult primarily because of a changing world and low tolerance for mistakes. The state space of situations you're trying to map is just large. It will take time. But it's not even close to impossible. Audio recognition is difficult for a different reason: language…
We can't even get speech recognition right and meanwhile audio (sounds in general) aren't even being seriously considered for self-driving purposes, AFAICT.
Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”
#237What's the opposite of FUD? That's what's driving the hype.
If FUD = fear, uncertainty, and doubt, then the opposite would be Joy, Certainty, and Credulousness. (JCC doesn't roll off of the tongue though) Sounds about right. The same stuff market bubbles are made of!
Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”
#238Earlier quoted context omitted.
Im skeptical you can do real autonomous driving without context. In DC, we have roads that flow one direction part of the day and another direction the other part. We've got roads that will be shut down unpredictably when there is a diplomatic event. We've got constant construction, where a two lane road might be reduced to one lane with a human holding a sign or using hand signals to usher cars through on their turn…
For a self driving car, it's sufficient if its understanding of weird situations is limited to detecting "yep, I'm in a weird situation, I'm going to stop now and wait for a remote human to take control". The situations you describe are rare - I've once had a diplomatic event that required weird rerouting and twice had cases where traffic was regulated by hand signals due to some crash on the road, but that means jus…
And this is just me driving (i.e. my car is parked 90% of the day). If you're talking about a self-driving Uber in D.C., one of the above events will happen on a daily basis.
Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”
#239Earlier quoted context omitted.
Of all the companies you mentioned, only Toyota is a top ten automaker, and is indeed number one by many measures. I guess you think experience and a track record of phenomenal success is a disadvantage. I could agree with you in some contexts, but not this one. The autonomous car hype is the emperor’s new clothes, and Toyota is not your average industrial behemoth. Those guys literally wrote the playbook on nimble m…
Toyota presumably treats reliability differently. When Toyota talks about "full autonomous driving", they really mean fully autonomous in a safe and predictable manner. When Uber or Tesla says the same, the implication is that a "good enough" level will be good enough - and that level can be achieved much sooner than whatever Toyota is talking about.
They might do better with hardware than software ...
Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”
#240Elon Musk begs to differ..