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Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

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Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#171

I've been saying this for a while. The problem is that people are mostly familiar with the rate of overcoming traditional technical challenges (e.g., making your current computer/phone more compact, improving graphics quality, making cameras and screens with more pixels, etc.). What people don't realize is that full autonomous driving will require more than just faster/smaller/cheaper technical innovation - it will r…

A little more context on the speech recognition part: I remember going to a trade show (many years ago) where a representative from one of the major speech recognition companies was showing off the technology. He wasn't just dictating text, but was also using the software to control the computer. I was floored by it. I was 100% convinced we had arrived at that dream of intelligent voice-computer interaction. I've fel…

Possibly. I think it's more likely that systems get good enough that you can turn over control to them on certain limited access roads. Perhaps construction zones are required to transmit some sort of alert signal that requires a driver to take over within 60 seconds or something along those lines.

This could be a big improvement for both safety and driving comfort and seems as if it would be a much more amenable to solving over, say, a 10 year horizon than a cross-town Manhattan taxi ride at rush hour.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've hit the nail on the head - audio recognition is quite poor after (a lot of) concerted effort over decades. Driving a car safely is significantly more difficult (and dangerous). That being said, Toyota's (and Subaru's) approach is the smart way forward - add sensors and capabilities that augment the human, but leave the human always responsible and in control. In order for a crash to happen, the human AND the m…

Once the machines are better than humans at a macro level, insurance companies will notice, and I think this will cause widespread adoption pretty quickly.

This has already started - look up the discount some insurers give to owners of Subarus that are equipped with EyeSight. The numbers show their collision avoidance is making roads safer.

Also, interesting fact: Subaru is achieving these impressive stats using stereo vision, not lidar.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#173
Toyota got into autonomous driving late. Then they hired Gil Pratt from MIT. Pratt used to run the MIT Leg Lab, which Raibert ran before Boston Dynamics, but Pratt didn't do much there.

It's clear that autonomous driving can be made to work, because Google/Waymo is doing it. It's hard and expensive and it takes a lot of sensors. It also takes extensive testing. Waymo drives 25,000 autonomous miles a week. Volvo has level 3 working on some freeways in Sweden; their 100 users are not required to watch the road while in auto mode.

There are other startups trying to do it. There's the "fake it til you make it" crowd - Otto and Cruise. (Otto's highly publicized Budweiser truck delivery demo was on a nearly deserted freeway surrounded by chase cars.) There's the "it's just a small matter of software" Tesla approach. There's the "throw machine learning at vision and hope" crowd, some small startups. That's what you get if you take the Udacity course and start coding. 43 companies have California DMV licenses for autonomous vehicle testing.

Toyota has been making some bad business decisions lately. They don't make battery electric cars. (They're fixing that, but won't be shipping until 2022.[1]) Instead, they've been pushing cars that run on hydrogen. Toyota sells the Mirai in California, and has a few hydrogen stations so it can be refueled. They sell about a hundred cars a month.[2]

[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-electric-cars-idUS... [2] http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/toyota/toyota-mira...

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#174
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree with the analogy to speech recognition. What makes speech recognition difficult is that it's highly dependent on context (sounds the same, but means something different depending on surrounding words, what the conversation is about, or even who you're speaking with). With driving, you should be able to make a good decision with just the instantaneous state, given enough information about that state (object…

Im skeptical you can do real autonomous driving without context. In DC, we have roads that flow one direction part of the day and another direction the other part. We've got roads that will be shut down unpredictably when there is a diplomatic event. We've got constant construction, where a two lane road might be reduced to one lane with a human holding a sign or using hand signals to usher cars through on their turn…

But you, as a human, don't need to know what happened before, to be able and drive through those conditions. You just need the immediately-available information, which is what OP defined as "no need for context" vs speech recognition.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you imagine writing a computer program than can drive a car in a video game, but not provide relationship advice to two freshly married people, or think of a fair and just and enforceable law to reduce discrimination at the workplace? Driving is quite a bit short of "same intelligence as humans"

what if there are 2 obstacles that the car can't brake fast enough to avoid so it has to decide which to hit. one is a person pushing a baby in a baby carriage, the other is a person pushing someone a wheelchair

I will loosely paraphrase something I heard Sebastian Thrun remark on this situation (commonly known in philosophy as "the trolley problem"):

1) such a situation happening is extremely rare (more so in the classic example of the trolley problem)

and

2) regardless of its possibility, if we are able to reduce the number of fatal and injurious accidents caused by automobiles by half, in the United States alone, such tragedies should not stop us from doing so

For some reason, people always let the impossible attainment of perfection be the enemy of good enough (as the old saying goes).

We will never get a perfect system. We don't have a perfect system right now. What we can get (indeed, I'd argue we're already there in the case of self-driving vehicles) is close enough that the difference is fairly negligible. That is, such systems can be made vastly better than the average human driver, and generally will come close or exceed that of professional drivers.

We are arguing that we'd rather have a professional taxi driver at the wheel of a vehicle transporting us, who is 98% competent at his job (that's being generous, actually), rather than a machine which is 99.95% competent doing the same job (note that neither percentage is based in reality - I pulled both from my nether regions for this example - but they probably aren't too far off the mark, either - well, again, I'm being generous with the taxi driver).

It's a purely irrational and emotional response not based on actual statistics and knowledge about accident rates. We'd rather continue letting drivers get in accidents, injuring or killing themselves and others, at a very high daily rate, than implement a technology which would rapidly make that number drop to very low levels over time.

Part of it I think is that we want to be able to blame somebody. We can't blame a machine, for some reason, or its manufacturer - especially in the heat of the moment (provided we survive). We can instead blame ourselves, or more generally "the other guy" for being a bad driver. We have this innate problem with being able to say both "I don't know" and "bad things can happen for not any good reason", and instead must find something or someone to blame, and if it isn't ourselves, even better (hence a lot of religious expression not based on reality).

There is so much benefit this technology can bring, even today. I don't personally think it is ready for consumer adoption quite yet, but I can see it being ready in less than 10 years, maybe less than 5. The problem for its adoption is that we'll likely never be ready, even if it attained a five 9's level of reliability, simply because if it failed, we'd have no one to blame but ourselves for trusting in it. For some reason, that simply will not do. We'd rather continue with the status-quo and continue to rack up the injuries and death, because at least then, we can blame the other guy instead of ourselves.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#176
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With software, it's always easy to make something appear to work. All the corner cases make something take 10-100x longer than the functional prototype. This became painfully obvious with the article floating around where a car misread a stop sign with a small amount of marking as a 45MPH speed limit sign. It's pretty clear that if a car is mistaking a red sign for a white sign, we have a very long time to go before…

> a car misread a stop sign with a small amount of marking as a 45MPH speed limit sign That's what happens when the sign were made for humans. They should start putting QR codes under traffic signs, with the human sign as a fall back or as a second point of reference.

QR codes are a goddamn eyesore. I'm voting against any city counselor who thinks they're a good idea. Find another way.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#177
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing worth mentioning (even though I agree with the gist of your point) is that machines make the same mistakes consistently. This is pretty rare for a human. Imagine 10% of the cars on the road are autonomous and they all make this same mistake.

There are a lot of road design features that come from the fact that humans do make certain mistakes consistently. For example, the US's love affair with four-way stops comes from drivers' inability to safely navigate uncontrolled intersections, even when there's no particular reason they couldn't. Stoplights usually have a delay between the red light for one direction and the green light for the next direction becau…

What models of car read speed limit signs?

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#178
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With software, it's always easy to make something appear to work. All the corner cases make something take 10-100x longer than the functional prototype. This became painfully obvious with the article floating around where a car misread a stop sign with a small amount of marking as a 45MPH speed limit sign. It's pretty clear that if a car is mistaking a red sign for a white sign, we have a very long time to go before…

Sure, some image classifiers can be fooled by some vandalism that requires a high degree of technical sophistication, but a) Humans can be fooled by vandalising a stop sign too. The difference here is that the change is imperceptible to humans... but does this matter? b) A lot of self-driving work leans heavily on maps which will know to expect a stop sign.

It does matter if half the cars read a speed limit differently than the other half.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#179

I've been saying this for a while. The problem is that people are mostly familiar with the rate of overcoming traditional technical challenges (e.g., making your current computer/phone more compact, improving graphics quality, making cameras and screens with more pixels, etc.). What people don't realize is that full autonomous driving will require more than just faster/smaller/cheaper technical innovation - it will r…

Intercontinental planes are mostly autonomous. Trains are autonomous. Massive mine dump trucks are fully autonomous. These things are in use today and has been for almost a decade. They need not be perfect to be useful, they only need to be better than the average human driver.

Toyota is way behind in the game. What do you expect them to say about the competition?

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#180
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think his research area (SLAM) might blind him a bit to the engineering side of things. Simultaneous Localization and Mapping is great if it works, but for something with high enough value... you can just map it from the start, and it makes your problem much easier. Which seems to be the approach people are taking.

Mapping does make things easier and it arguably jump-started the current wave of autonomous vehicle work. But then you have to move beyond a precise map of how the world is supposed to be to how the world actually is including all the unpredictable behaviors of humans in the space. Having listened to Leonard speak, his skepticism seems to mostly be around how you deal with all the things like left hand turns in busy…

I think that for a large enough benefit we will adapt how we interact with these systems.

Before automobiles it was normal for people to walk in the middle of the street, but we adapted (some would argue this was a bad thing ofc).

I don't think it's a prerequisite for autonomous systems to be the same as humans, the benefit is just too large for us to wait.

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