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Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

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Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#11

Post by wnevets »

limeblack wrote: post #5

One thing I would love someone to explain is how can people assume cars are going to be automated soon when both planes and trains haven't been automated for various reasons. They are different issues I have gathered but essentially shouldn't trains be dead simple but to this day at least the trains(not metras though) often have someone to stop the train in case of emergencies. Planes are more complex but have lower…

>when both planes and trains haven't been automated for various reasons.

I thought both were already highly automated?

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#12

Post by moxious »

It speaks to the trends of the day that an article which says something patently obvious to people in the tech field is considered news.

This reality seems like it may pose a problem though, as some people's business models and valuations depend on this article being wrong.

The thing is, we don't need full level 5 to get useful stuff out of this line of tech development. But in terms of the futurist vision of driverless cars everywhere, fleets of cars replacing private ownership, etc -- hard to see that happening. If the tech takes more than 10 years to develop, it's very likely something else will develop in the meantime which will essentially invalidate all of those earlier visions, as the world will have gone in a different direction in the meantime.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#13

Post by adrianN »

limeblack wrote: post #5

One thing I would love someone to explain is how can people assume cars are going to be automated soon when both planes and trains haven't been automated for various reasons. They are different issues I have gathered but essentially shouldn't trains be dead simple but to this day at least the trains(not metras though) often have someone to stop the train in case of emergencies. Planes are more complex but have lower…

There are no good technical reasons why trains are not automated more often. The technology is there, many trains do in fact run autonomously. It's just unpopular for long distance trains because current systems don't do obstacle detection and its hard to secure long distance tracks against obstacles. But for high speed trains at least there is no point in trying to visually recognize obstacles: if you see an obstacle it's already too late to brake meaningfully.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#14

Post by _m8fo »

Maybe I'm ignorant (very likely) but I've never understood the difference between full autonomous driving and a fully intelligent AI.

If a car can drive in any environment and react to any circumstances surely said AI could also do anything else, no?

EDIT: Thanks for the responses everyone. Though, to clarify, when I think of "full autonomous" driving, I'm thinking of a car that can go from A to B regardless of the context. Meaning, if some of it is offroad it'll handle that, if there's traffic that'll be handled. If there's something wrong with itself, aka the car, it'll be introspective and call for assistance, sending its location, etc. Not just following marks on a road and pulling over and giving up if it can't get there.

Also, I do not think a "fully intelligent AI" can necessarily solve any problem, but is capable of learning such that it could. I the purposes of a discussion I'd equate it to maybe a 5 year old.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#15

Post by Leader2light »

gboudrias wrote: post #4

I'm sure he's right, but then why is everyone joining the race now? Wouldn't it be way less expensive to wait until at least some of the problems are solved? Also, it sure seems like level 5 autonomous driving is just a few steps short of general AI, which is still lightyears away.

People are joining because Tesla is scaring them into it. Musk is a dumbass, but his idea self-driving is happening now may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Consumers LOVE it. So even having some level of driving assistance will win you more customers.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#16

Post by skywhopper »

gboudrias wrote: post #4

I'm sure he's right, but then why is everyone joining the race now? Wouldn't it be way less expensive to wait until at least some of the problems are solved? Also, it sure seems like level 5 autonomous driving is just a few steps short of general AI, which is still lightyears away.

People are jumping in because they get attention and money for doing so (and because lots of non-experts who tend to be the money-distributors believe the hype) including government grants. The real threat is not that the hype will waste private investors' money (although it is) but that it will draw government funds away from transit projects that would be a far better investment.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#17

Post by yazan94 »

bpicolo wrote: post #6

> unveiled a new concept car, the Concept-i Man sure would be cool if any concept car ever presented were actually released. They do look fancy and futuristic.

The Concept-i looks like it could come straight from Wall-E. I agree with you in general about concept cars being produced/released, but for this specific case, I don't mind. Looks funky

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#18

Post by [deleted] »

gboudrias wrote: post #4

I'm sure he's right, but then why is everyone joining the race now? Wouldn't it be way less expensive to wait until at least some of the problems are solved? Also, it sure seems like level 5 autonomous driving is just a few steps short of general AI, which is still lightyears away.

[deleted]

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#19

Post by pveierland »

bpicolo wrote: post #6

> unveiled a new concept car, the Concept-i Man sure would be cool if any concept car ever presented were actually released. They do look fancy and futuristic.

That's why I think Tesla's policy of not doing concept cars is cool. They only show cars which they intend to deliver.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#20

Post by moxious »

gboudrias wrote: post #4

I'm sure he's right, but then why is everyone joining the race now? Wouldn't it be way less expensive to wait until at least some of the problems are solved? Also, it sure seems like level 5 autonomous driving is just a few steps short of general AI, which is still lightyears away.

I'd guess level 5 is general AI, not a few steps short. Or rather it's a specialized set of sub skills that an AI would have.

Everybody's jumping in because the prize is ridiculously huge. This justifies jumping in even if you deem your odds < 1 in 100

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