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Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

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Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

#31
Recently got turned down for a job here, now I'm remarkably glad I did - this is an incredibly difficult problem to tackle, and they need absolutely brilliant people to achieve success.

I wish them the best of luck in their continued progress! I'll stick to easier stuff :)

Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

#32
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I occassionally come across construction that is marked in an unusual way - at 65 miles an hour when the speed limit is 75. Also, when they are changing freeways and restriping them (leaving the original old faded lanes and before new lines go up) sometimes it's confusing to me and the traffic is flowing at 80 miles an hour, IIRC this was happening on 880 for a while about 10 years back. If the AI is confused by a ro…

Aren't those examples in which it'd be fine for it to be confused? That confusion shouldn't lead to any dangerous situations, just a different speed than other cars. It would also be interesting to know whether Waymo factors in other cars' behavior. If everyone is going 80 while the speed limit is 65, will it factor that in and go 80 or keep with the speed limit?

I don't know what a good answer is, my recollection of those examples is no one else is slowing down so I need to go the same speed in order to not be rear ended and hope the car in front of me knows what they are doing. This feels pretty unsatisfactory.

The speed limit is kind of interesting, occassionally see someone go the speed limit on I-5 but it's hard to maintain because there's always an eighteen wheeler going slower than that, and then it hits a hill, and then there's a cascade reaction where the slow lane hits 45-50 for an extended period but the fast lane is going 75-95, though just being patient and waiting in the slow lane isn't a big deal for a autodriving car, or 280 between San Francisco and San Jose with sections where it appears almost everyone is going 85 miles per hour (not sure why CHP doesn't just camp out there). I see Teslas in both these places but I've never seen a Waymo.

Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

#33
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all data is equal. Waymo test vehicled likely record a bunch of data from all the sensors and can download them all at the end of the data. Tesla just enabled in the last few months the option for people to upload data to them. Determining which data to upload is its own problem as well.

> Tesla just enabled in the last few months the option for people to upload data to them. Did you mean Tesla never captured data before that? If yes then I disagree. Sorry. More here - https://electrek.co/2017/07/12/tesla-global-fleet-electric-m...

What does that article have to do with self driving car sensor data. It talks about miles driven.

Tesla just put out there an opt-in upload of video data 3 months ago. And even then it is not clear how useful that data is. Especially since a v2 of the autopilot hardware was recently announced.

https://electrek.co/2017/05/06/tesla-data-sharing-policy-col...

Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

#34

The fact that Waymo revealed their "secret" tools for advancing this crucial technology implies that either: 1) They believe no one can quite catch up before they can launch the technology. Since they know several competitors have huge resources and brilliant people, it means they are quite close to launch. 2) These tools have become open secret within the industry, so no harm is done to their competitive position by…

The strategy of combining simulation with real world data isn't particularly original, nor is the idea of using test tracks. The challenging part is how you do it. This article barely touched on that.

Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

#35
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I occassionally come across construction that is marked in an unusual way - at 65 miles an hour when the speed limit is 75. Also, when they are changing freeways and restriping them (leaving the original old faded lanes and before new lines go up) sometimes it's confusing to me and the traffic is flowing at 80 miles an hour, IIRC this was happening on 880 for a while about 10 years back. If the AI is confused by a ro…

Aren't those examples in which it'd be fine for it to be confused? That confusion shouldn't lead to any dangerous situations, just a different speed than other cars. It would also be interesting to know whether Waymo factors in other cars' behavior. If everyone is going 80 while the speed limit is 65, will it factor that in and go 80 or keep with the speed limit?

When I was in high school, I was driving to a party in a VW bug.

My crazy friend was tailgating me. He was kinda drunk, and thought it was hilarious.(He became a cop after high school.)

So I was driving down the road around 40 mph, and a Raccoon ran right in front of my passenger front tire.

I just slammed on the brakes. My buddy car almost skidded into my bumper. We were both young and are reflexes were spot on. We were both slight buzzed, but way under .08. The incident happened in milliseconds. I remember taking to him later, and he said he would have done the same thing as myself. In all reality, I should have run over the animal, but my subconscious was not wired that way.

My point is I still think about that incident to this day.

I've thought about it way before self-driving was even a real reality.

In my head, I knew he was tailgating me, but I still didn't want to kill an animal over our stupidity that night.

I've thought about what the best Self-Driving system would have done that one night.

(I've been told that lidar can see animals in the bushes. I just question when the vechicle has a moral issue to deal with. There's moral decisions computers can't make. To this day, I glad I didn't kill that Racoon. I still rember her babies still in the bushes. They were looking at me, and their stunned mom.)

Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

#36
post #16

> for an average of once every 890 miles, or 0.80 disengagements per 1,000 miles. Isn’t that 1.12~ per 1000mi?

Wow, and I must think we're looking to squeeze ~3 more orders of magnitude or more of the reliability before going full driverless ~(1m miles/disengagement)

Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

#37
I found this to be especially interesting "She spent countless hours going up and down 101 and 280, the highways that lead between San Francisco and Mountain View. Like the rest of the drivers, she came to develop a feel for how the cars performed on the open road. And this came to be seen as an important kind of knowledge within the self-driving program. They developed an intuition about what might be hard for the cars. “Doing some testing on newer software and having a bit of tenure on the team, I began to think about ways that we could potentially challenge the system,” she tells me."

Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

#38
post #16

> for an average of once every 890 miles, or 0.80 disengagements per 1,000 miles. Isn’t that 1.12~ per 1000mi?

Wow, and I must think we're looking to squeeze ~3 more orders of magnitude or more of the reliability before going full driverless ~(1m miles/disengagement)

is there a specific reason you think that, or is a million just a sufficiently impressive-sounding number?

Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. As a Google engineer, I think a lot of our AI efforts are "safe" (as in we'll keep investing in them for a long time) because they're already providing substantial business value. For example, - TTS and speech synthesis have lots of uses in Android (phones, Wear, Auto, etc.) - Object recognition is very useful for photo search - Face recognition is also useful for photo search (if you tag people in Google Pho…

As a fellow google engineer, I'd be curious to know which (public) research you think isn't marketable/valuable. As you've mentioned, object detection (which is a considerable portion of CV) is marketable. Meta learning (Vizier, "Learning to learn with gradient descent with gradient descent") are incredibly valuable from a business perspective. Model compression is important for neural networks on mobile/embedded dev…

> One of the very interesting things about ML being such a corporation driven field is that it's incredible how quickly relatively recent research makes its way into products.

I think this is just true for really anything that falls purely within the domain of the computational sciences. For a ground breaking drug to hit the market, it takes 10 years of FDA trials, for high speed trains it requires large teams of construction workers only after years of safety work.

In the world of software as it stands today, deploying a new model for something can be virtually instant in some cases, and even in the worst cases, it isn't taking people years to improve a small attribute of their product.

Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is kind of what I figured. I get the distinct feeling that any startup that is unable to keep pace (or break new ground) with AI research & development is going to be hurting badly within the next five years. Uber is poaching AI and Robotics talent, read:profs, from Carnegie Mellon for a reason. It is a do-or-die situation it seems.

Great comment. As a nit, I think "poaching" is a bad term. Uber offered to pay these professors what it viewed as what they were worth to it, which happened to be a lot more than what CMU was paying them. The professors accepted of their own free choice. I fail to see why such an action is termed "poaching". We have had enough problems with industry illegally conspiring (see Steve Jobs) to suppress developer pay thro…

> I fail to see why such an action is termed "poaching".

Because the company is a king, and the employees are the property of the crown?

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