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Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide into the air

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Re: Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide into the air

#21

Post by kdoherty »

taberiand wrote: post #3

I wouldn't be surprised if such feedback loops have been excluded from the models of climate change because they paint a picture so dire that no amount of mitigation (if there were any serious attempts at mitigation going on) could save our way of life. "Sooner and worse than expected" is a phrase I expect to hear with increasing frequency.

The phenomenon that is being described where melting ice causes the release of CO2 into the atmosphere seems to have been known to climate scientists, though I don't know whether it has been included in climate change models.

There is a great talk (video online here: https://www.facebook.com/WoodsHoleOcean/videos/1015459031268...) by Richard Alley where exactly this phenomenon is mentioned (see Q&A at ~50:55 in the video, though I highly recommend watching the whole thing).

Re: Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide into the air

#23

Post by jerf »

castis wrote: post #12
candiodari wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was never true that human industry was the main cause of co2 release into the atmosphere. Which is one of the reasons to doubt that all those climate accords will have any influence on global warming at all. > "Sooner and worse than expected" is a phrase I expect to hear with increasing frequency. If you increase the input into self-reinforcing feedback loop that is exactly what you'd expect to happen. Not that at…

What if it's all a big hoax and we create a better world for nothing?

Then trillions of dollars were extremely inefficiently allocated to the task of creating better worlds and a much better world could have been created with that money instead, costing lives in the process.

Having noble goals doesn't immunize you from accounting.

Re: Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide into the air

#24

Post by jerf »

taberiand wrote: post #3

I wouldn't be surprised if such feedback loops have been excluded from the models of climate change because they paint a picture so dire that no amount of mitigation (if there were any serious attempts at mitigation going on) could save our way of life. "Sooner and worse than expected" is a phrase I expect to hear with increasing frequency.

"I wouldn't be surprised if such feedback loops have been excluded from the models of climate change because they paint a picture so dire that no amount of mitigation (if there were any serious attempts at mitigation going on) could save our way of life."

If such feedback loops could be that dire and unavoidable, then they would already have happened direly and unavoidably. It has been this warm before, in the not-that-distant past by geological standards. If there's anything unusual about our current situation, it's the rate, not our current location. That does not mean that bad things or things we won't like can't happen, but we can't be sitting on a metaphorical bomb, or it would already have long since gone off.

Re: Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide into the air

#25

Post by EGreg »

Can someone PLEASE tell me why there haven't been more efforts underway to have commnities around the world plant more trees and engage in planned reforestation?

This is as close as you can get to a globally available mechanism for pulling carbon dioxide out of the air (and methane can burn leaving carbon dioxide).

I mean this very seriously. Richard Branson is looking to fund ways to pull Carbon out if the atmosphere. China has developed a way to leave carbon in rock. Meanwhile we have had a way all along - TREES! Those and algae in the oceans.

The "answer" I often hear is that the carbon will eventually be released when the trees burn in forest fires. Well, first of all, what matters is the overall biomass of trees. And secondly even if it didn't, that buys us many decades.

PS: How come this is being so heavily downvoted?

Re: Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide into the air

#26

Post by cropsieboss »

graeme wrote: post #17
candiodari wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was never true that human industry was the main cause of co2 release into the atmosphere. Which is one of the reasons to doubt that all those climate accords will have any influence on global warming at all. > "Sooner and worse than expected" is a phrase I expect to hear with increasing frequency. If you increase the input into self-reinforcing feedback loop that is exactly what you'd expect to happen. Not that at…

correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you've been misunderstood. Are you saying: 1. Most CO2 release is natural 2. We increased CO2 through our own efforts as well 3. [implied statement you may agree with: this led to a feedback loop] 4. We now may be too late to stop it merely by reducing emissions, if planetary emissions of stored carbon take over and become the main source of CO2 emissions I think's actually fairly…

Most CO2 is indeed natural.

We did increase the circulating amount by a very small margin. Large enough so that it accumulated over the years.

This of course led to a feedback loop.

Arctic ice has 1400Gt of carbon locked up as methane. [1] This is equivalent to 1400/10 = 140 years of human 2016 activity. [2] If ice starts to melt, we are doomed.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions

[2]: https://www.co2.earth/global-co2-emissions

Re: Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide into the air

#27

Post by cropsieboss »

Arctic ice has 1400Gt of carbon locked up as methane. [1] This is equivalent to 1400/10 = 140 years of human 2016 activity. [2]. Methane also has a stronger effect than CO2. If ice starts to melt, we are doomed.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions#Contr...

[2]: https://www.co2.earth/global-co2-emissions

Re: Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide into the air

#28

Post by stcredzero »

jerf wrote: post #24
taberiand wrote: post #3

I wouldn't be surprised if such feedback loops have been excluded from the models of climate change because they paint a picture so dire that no amount of mitigation (if there were any serious attempts at mitigation going on) could save our way of life. "Sooner and worse than expected" is a phrase I expect to hear with increasing frequency.

"I wouldn't be surprised if such feedback loops have been excluded from the models of climate change because they paint a picture so dire that no amount of mitigation (if there were any serious attempts at mitigation going on) could save our way of life." If such feedback loops could be that dire and unavoidable, then they would already have happened direly and unavoidably. It has been this warm before, in the not-th…

Could it be as bad as the Permian extinction?

Re: Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide into the air

#29

Post by lutorm »

jerf wrote: post #24
taberiand wrote: post #3

I wouldn't be surprised if such feedback loops have been excluded from the models of climate change because they paint a picture so dire that no amount of mitigation (if there were any serious attempts at mitigation going on) could save our way of life. "Sooner and worse than expected" is a phrase I expect to hear with increasing frequency.

"I wouldn't be surprised if such feedback loops have been excluded from the models of climate change because they paint a picture so dire that no amount of mitigation (if there were any serious attempts at mitigation going on) could save our way of life." If such feedback loops could be that dire and unavoidable, then they would already have happened direly and unavoidably. It has been this warm before, in the not-th…

but we can't be sitting on "a bomb", or it would already have long since gone off.

That's a strange argument given that previous variations in climate indeed were very severe...

Re: Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide into the air

#30

Post by castis »

jerf wrote: post #23
castis wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if it's all a big hoax and we create a better world for nothing?

Then trillions of dollars were extremely inefficiently allocated to the task of creating better worlds and a much better world could have been created with that money instead, costing lives in the process. Having noble goals doesn't immunize you from accounting.

And none of it means anything if we all die because the planet cant sustain us any longer.
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