A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating • Hacker News Board

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#341

Post by bluGill » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 5:17 PM UTC

cowsandmilk wrote: post #172

putsteadywere wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw it the other day when the eclipse came to Oregon, and the population suddenly increased by 25% for a few days. I'm guessing that if the number of electric cars surged by 25% for a few days, it would be much less of a problem. [0]: http://www.kgw.com/news/eclipse/gas-shortages-long-waits-rep...

> I'm guessing that if the number of electric cars surged by 25% for a few days, it would be much less of a problem. Some parts of the US aren't able to easily meet energy demand they can forecast when it goes up by amounts like 25%. For instance, Pepco pays to install thermostats where they can turn down/off your air conditioner[0]. Same with Dominion Energy[1]. I would be unsurprised if an influx of people of the s…

That doesn't follow. There is a vast difference in cost of different forms of electric. The grid has a lot of built in ability to scale by turning on more expensive sources of power. People want low prices, and so the power company does what it can to stay on the low cost sources of power even while higher cost sources exist and could make up the demand without those tricks: it make customers happy.

My company maintains an old boiler from the 1880s connected to a steam engine/generator from the 1920s. Because we have it maintained and can start it up with 12 hours notice the power company gives us a substantial discount on our power. I understand we actually did turn it on about 5 years ago when something major happened to the grid. We were able to power our [small] town alone. This is one of the least efficient power plants in the country and thus one of the most expensive.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#342

Post by bluGill » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 5:22 PM UTC

cesarb wrote: post #207

LeifCarrotson wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously, 20A? How do you even run an air conditioner on that, much less an entire house? 200A (at 240V split phase) is standard here in the Midwestern US. It's easy and cheap to get more if you want a better connection, such as for an EV or a home shop with welders and large motors.

> Seriously, 20A? How do you even run an air conditioner on that, much less an entire house? The poster mentioned Spain, which uses 230V (unlike the USA, which uses 120V), so 20A should be around 4600W if I did the calculation correctly. With a quick search I found a window AC with 18000 BTU using only 1700W, so even with 15A it would be possible to run one AC with plenty to spare.

No, as the other poster pointed out, the US is 240 volts not 120 for this discussion. 120 volts is what you get to your general use outlets, but when we say a house in the US has 200 amps of mains service, we mean 200 amps at 240 volts, or 400 amps at 120 volts. The split to 120 volt happens in your mains panel after the main breaker.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#343

Post by bluGill » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 5:38 PM UTC

majormajor wrote: post #54

sbierwagen wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree that you can pay $15K for a used car, I doubt that the average price of a used car is $15K. The average price of the first 30 used cars for sale by owner on the Seattle craigslist is $5,896: https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/cto Average price of the first 30 by dealer however, is $21,567: https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/ctd But who would be dumb enough to buy a used car from a lot?

Isn't looking at Craigslist selection bias around people looking to buy/sell cheaper cars without warranties? If I had a used car worth 20K still in a maintenance window I wouldn't sell it on Craigslist. Autotrader if I wanted to private-party to max my upside, dealer if I was lazy.

Very much selection bias. Even if we add auto shopper, and the like you won't get most of the expensive cars as they are not advertised.

Your 20k used car is 2-3 years old and coming off lease, or the same car as a trade in. The dealer will put it on the lot with a "just off trade" sticker and sell it. It might or might not go on Craigslist. (if it is listed the ad finishes with "and many more cars like this so some in and see") If the dealer gets too many in on trade the rest go to an auto auction.

Remember, the dealer knows all the numbers that the leaser isn't told. The company who backed the lease 2-3 years ago did their best to make sure that when the car was turned in the dealer would look at the remaining value and think "profit if I buy that and sell it". The dealer is going to pay the lease company for the rest of the value of the car. If the dealer decides there isn't enough money in selling it the lease company has to send the car to an auto auction and see what price they can get. (I suspect that a lot more goes on in these cases but I don't know what)

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#344

Post by justin66 » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 5:43 PM UTC

MrFoof wrote: post #332

justin66 wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A 956 with five LeMans wins sold for $10.12M I love the 956 as much as the next guy (more, even) but the only model to ever win Le Mans five times was the Audi R8, and it wasn't with the same chassis, I'm sure. Did you mean they sold a Le Mans chassis that won five races, more generally? Not trying to be a pedant, I'm honestly curious which car you're talking about. > The L&M sponsored 917/10 sold for $5.83M That's…

You are correct. 956-003 won LeMans in '83, and won five races overall. Regardless, most "classic Porsches" sell for under $100K. As I mentioned in another comment, the bulk of what's sold are 1978 - 1993 911s. 964s trade hands around $50-65K, and SCs more around $20-35K. Yes, there's stuff outside of that (Very good 993s commanding ~$100K now, 930 Turbos definitely not cheap, all RSs definitely not cheap due to rari…

One cool thing about Porsches that is likely to keep the price down: 70% of all Porsches that were ever built are still on the road. That's a Porsche figure, and "on the road" begs definition with some of those more expensive cars, but the fact that they're maintainable cars (and worth repairing) means the supply doesn't diminish the way it might with some other marques.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#345

Post by PeachPlum » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 5:57 PM UTC

zimpenfish wrote: post #286

PeachPlum wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considerable amount of parking here in the UK is on-street. None of the homes built in the post WW2 rebuilding have dedicated room for cars, or any of the 10s of 1000s of homes built before that.

By "post WW2 rebuilding" do you mean a specific limited time period? Because otherwise, "None" is a bit strong - there's hundreds of new homes and apartments within 5 miles of me that have dedicated parking spaces. Even my block (seems to be 1960s) has dedicated off-street parking for 8 cars (admittedly there are 12 flats but I suspect 8 cars for 12 flats in the 60s was an outlandish estimate.)

Sorry, yes I meant the public housing built in the 40s & 50s.

Hmm, in trying to find an example, it doesn't look as bad as I know it is.

This is the kind of estate I was thinking of

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Ambleside+Primary+School...

but many of the fronts have been turned into parking

These are pre war

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/6+Newfield+Rd,+Nottingha...

I know these places and night-time parking is more of a squeeze than these images show

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#346

Post by mikestew » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 6:11 PM UTC

letsgetphysITal wrote: post #311

donatj wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it worth 10k? Do you get in a lot of accidents? I genuinely would not want any of those things, I don't want my car making decisions for me, I'm smarter than it. On top of that it's just junk to break you can't fix. I have never been in an accident. I drive a pickup I paid sub $1000 for. Been driving it for three years no issues. That $10k could buy me ten trucks. Would I take it on a trip? No, I rent a car fo…

> I have never been in an accident. Gambler's Fallacy. Prior incidence has no effect on future occurrence. A lot of the new safety features are for low-speed collision protection, automatically sounding horn and applying breaks when your car gets close to another, say in traffic. Unless you go top-range you generally won't get actual driving automation. Other than that it's just convenience; Climate control instead o…

Gambler's Fallacy. Prior incidence has no effect on future occurrence.

We’re not gambling, we’re driving cars. And the fact that the current F1 champion has won some races means that he is more likely to win the next one than I am. And the fact that I have a lower-than-average rate of driving collisions means that I have a lower-than-average chance of having a collision in the future. If you doubt me, ask an insurance actuary.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#347

Post by njarboe » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 7:41 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #313

bengale wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe they just want a nicer car?

Everyone wants a nicer car, but usually there's good reasons why they haven't bought one. It seems like something has shifted recently and many people have cars nicer than they would have previously. Possibly nice cars are just cheaper, or everyone is richer or people can get credit for cars where before they couldn't. It might just be me, I thought people spent too much on cars anyway, and now they seem to have nice…

As interest rates keep getting lower and auto loan terms now as long as 7 or 8 years. In 3 years, when the people that got those long loans want a new car, they will find their car loan still underwater. They will likely have to stick it out with their "old" car for awhile.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#348

Post by davidgerard » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 7:51 PM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #291

jpmattia wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When they run them through now and get 50% on the dollar, their securitization pools will be creamed. Amazing that mark-to-market is still not restored 10 years after its suspension.

That's not the full story. It's that the trading market is sufficiently thin that even a few hundred units of freshly off-lease vehicles will crash the price. David Gerard makes a similar point of Bitcoin in Attach of the 50 Foot Blockhain -- that "market capitalisation" of crytpocurrencies is complete nonsense, due to market thinness. Rather, you want to look at total transaction volume. A large player can move the…

> Price, it turns out, is far more like pressure than volume.

Or voltage, as we sorta worked out on G+ :-)

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#349

Post by mateo411 » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 8:04 PM UTC

letsgetphysITal wrote: post #311

donatj wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it worth 10k? Do you get in a lot of accidents? I genuinely would not want any of those things, I don't want my car making decisions for me, I'm smarter than it. On top of that it's just junk to break you can't fix. I have never been in an accident. I drive a pickup I paid sub $1000 for. Been driving it for three years no issues. That $10k could buy me ten trucks. Would I take it on a trip? No, I rent a car fo…

> I have never been in an accident. Gambler's Fallacy. Prior incidence has no effect on future occurrence. A lot of the new safety features are for low-speed collision protection, automatically sounding horn and applying breaks when your car gets close to another, say in traffic. Unless you go top-range you generally won't get actual driving automation. Other than that it's just convenience; Climate control instead o…

The Gambler's fallacy doesn't take independence from different trials into account.

However, since it's the same driver for each of the "trials" then the Gambler's fallacy doesn't really apply.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#350

Post by woodandsteel » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 8:27 PM UTC

ams6110 wrote: post #218

woodandsteel wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The Bolt outsold both of Tesla's vehicles last month. The article says GM sold only 7,592 Bolts in the first six months of this year. Tesla sold way more, and it makes a much higher profit per vehicle. I don't know why Bolt sales are so low. When it came out the reviews were all very positive, and they said it would be strong competition for the Tesla Model 3. But the Tesla already has several hundred thousand pre-o…

Tesla is a status symbol. Chevy is not. The true demand is for the Tesla brand, not the electric vehicle.

Doesn't matter. Teslas are selling, Bolts are not. And the Model 3 is not a status luxury car.