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A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

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Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#331

Post by theEXTORTCIST »

volkl48 wrote: post #330
throwawaybbq1 wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't run into stuff??? You realize it is called an "accident" for a reason. The backup camera and blind spot detection are worth real dollars in my experience.

Calling it an "accident" is doublespeak so you can wave your hands and go "I had an accident, oops, it couldn't be helped." Making it seem like it was just your fate that day. Which if it was at-fault, it certainly wasn't. It sounds a lot better than "I am either negligent or incompetent and shouldn't be trusted with piloting a 2-ton hulk of metal." If you checked your blind spot every time like you ought to, the bli…

This is one of the biggest points that I have seen taught in driver training courses and repeated throughout my life. Most of the events people refer to as car accidents are crashes/collisions.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#332

Post by MrFoof »

justin66 wrote: post #236
MrFoof wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What classic Porsche is selling for $30M? * Even Steve McQueen's 917K only sold for $14.08M the other day. * A 956 with five LeMans wins sold for $10.12M. * The L&M sponsored 917/10 sold for $5.83M. * A RS60 Spyder with an amazing pedigree sold for $5.40M. * Jerry Seinfeld's 550 Spyder sold for $5.33M. * Paul Newman's 935 sold for $4.84M. ... and the list falls from there. As usual, the most valuable Porsches have pe…

> A 956 with five LeMans wins sold for $10.12M I love the 956 as much as the next guy (more, even) but the only model to ever win Le Mans five times was the Audi R8, and it wasn't with the same chassis, I'm sure. Did you mean they sold a Le Mans chassis that won five races, more generally? Not trying to be a pedant, I'm honestly curious which car you're talking about. > The L&M sponsored 917/10 sold for $5.83M That's…

You are correct. 956-003 won LeMans in '83, and won five races overall.

Regardless, most "classic Porsches" sell for under $100K. As I mentioned in another comment, the bulk of what's sold are 1978 - 1993 911s. 964s trade hands around $50-65K, and SCs more around $20-35K. Yes, there's stuff outside of that (Very good 993s commanding ~$100K now, 930 Turbos definitely not cheap, all RSs definitely not cheap due to rarity, 993 GT2s very expensive as well), but the bulk of non-supercar classic Porsches are very affordable until you get into the rare top-shelf stuff or the very old: in which value is dictated by pedigree, condition and rarity.

Additionally, with ~22 million used cars sold and registered in the US every year, a single 8-digit sale does not materially affect the average selling price of used cars. Never mind the fact that no used Porsche commands anywhere near $30M (and I believe only five Porsches are in the Top 100 most expensive cars sold of all time), which is where I had serious issue with the OP.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#333

Post by alexanderstears »

sedachv wrote: post #275
alexanderstears wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not going to pile on the Avalon comment. But the LS430s aren't really comparable to the current gen Toyota safety systems. The LS430s have dynamic cruise control but they won't bring the car to a complete stop, the dynamic cruise control in the 01-03s is a little weird (and I think it has some reliability problems). And the dynamic cruise control is bundled with the Ultra Luxury package which has a lot of stuff to br…

Is there something special about the LS430 air suspension? I own a Town Car with rear air suspension and it is my favorite feature of that car. Parts don't seem to be expensive and there is a large aftermarket. I have been recommending rear air suspensions to others interested in comfortable road trip cars.

It's a volume thing - the LS430 is a relatively rare car, air suspension is a relatively rare option (only available on the top two trip levels), and the replacement parts are only available through lexus. There isn't anyone who rebuilds them or sells them private label.

For the price of 1 air shock replaced at the dealer, you can get an independent mechanic to put the car on conventional suspension and it'll still ride good enough on smaller wheels.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#334

Post by throwawaybbq1 »

volkl48 wrote: post #330
throwawaybbq1 wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't run into stuff??? You realize it is called an "accident" for a reason. The backup camera and blind spot detection are worth real dollars in my experience.

Calling it an "accident" is doublespeak so you can wave your hands and go "I had an accident, oops, it couldn't be helped." Making it seem like it was just your fate that day. Which if it was at-fault, it certainly wasn't. It sounds a lot better than "I am either negligent or incompetent and shouldn't be trusted with piloting a 2-ton hulk of metal." If you checked your blind spot every time like you ought to, the bli…

> If you checked your blind spot every time like you ought to, the blind spot detection is at best a minor additional safety

This is not true. On some freeways in my country, idiots have a habit of driving 2x the speed limit. Checking your blindspot at the time you started the maneuver is no guauantee it will still be empty a half a second later. The blind spot detector is pretty helpful IMO.

Btw .. I don't understand what perfect world some people live in. Do you live in a world where programmers write bug free code every single time like they have been taught?

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#335

Post by BoorishBears »

hueving wrote: post #273
justinph wrote: post #182

Sure, as far as basic transportation goes, but you can't get the vastly improved safety features in a used car that you can in most new cars today. Buy a new Toyota? It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. I just bought a new car for the first time in my life. The safety o…

>It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. Don't run into stuff? Most of that tech is only useful if you are an absent-minded driver and even then it only covers some cases (e.g. emergency braking doesn't help if the car in front of you slammed into something and you were fo…

Yesterday I went around a sharp turn on a 4 lane highway only to come face to face with a box truck that had flipped on it's side moments earlier.

FAB slowed down my car enough for me to get a chance to maneuver around it.

I much prefer the array of red leds I had to face instead of dealing with a wrecked car and possible injuries.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#336

Post by bluGill »

oasisbob wrote: post #325
letsgetphysITal wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have never been in an accident. Gambler's Fallacy. Prior incidence has no effect on future occurrence. A lot of the new safety features are for low-speed collision protection, automatically sounding horn and applying breaks when your car gets close to another, say in traffic. Unless you go top-range you generally won't get actual driving automation. Other than that it's just convenience; Climate control instead o…

Instead of barking the names of logical fallacies at people, perhaps consider why the auto insurance industry employs scores of actuaries and takes driver history into account so heavily.

It is still a fallacy. Insurance companies don't look at someone who is 40 with no accidents and insure them for free because even the lowest risk drivers get into accidents sometimes.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#337

Post by usaphp »

tmnvix wrote: post #208
usaphp wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's still insignificant in terms of the OP comment. Also there aren't 100 cars with an average price of 5 Mln sold per year, far from it [1] 1 - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_cars_...

That list shows that of the top ~20 cars sold in 2016 the average price was ~$10m.

But there are only a handful of them, which defeats the OP reasoning

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#338

Post by bluGill »

S_A_P wrote: post #216
gnicholas wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any predictions on how the popping bubble will ripple through the economy? With the housing bubble, there was a huge pull-back in consumer purchasing, as people lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in home equity. That caused a drop in consumer confidence and purchasing, which led employers to cut back on wages/hours, which led to further drops in consumer purchasing. Do you think we'll see the same domino effect he…

I don't think that it will be as severe. The big banks are largely insulated from this. I do think that it will be a buyers market for late model used cars for cash buyers. I'm already seeing signs of this. It's just not quite there yet but I bet I can get a car at 50% traditional market price soon.

I think the banks as in the car manufacture's finance arms will be hit the most: when it hit they are the ones who are suddenly owners of a car that they owe more on than it is worth. They will have to sell these cars at a loss. If they try to make up for that loss by raising lease rates those who turned their car in will be forced buy a used car at greatly reduced rates (few have the ability to afford much larger payments)

Those who buy their car have a known payment, they might owe far more than the car is worth but that payment won't chance and other than an accident they eventually have a paid off car. They might not be able to trade their car in as soon as they would like, but they at least have a car.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#339

Post by nroach »

jackmodern wrote: post #245
aphextron wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leaf is a special case because of the battery degradation issues. 100k miles on a Leaf is basically end of life (unless you buy the $5k battery replacement). That being said, you can pick one up in California for $5k in perfect condition with Definitely a niche thing for heavy urban areas that have the charging infrastructure though. I can't imagine owning one in the Midwest.

5k, how? I don't see any less than 8k on autotrader.

unlisted private party sale; auction purchase; craigslist opportunistic purchase; etc

auto trader is typically dealer sales and paid-listing private party. the best deals won't be found there.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#340

Post by bluGill »

Hasz wrote: post #178
grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

Liquid cancer? C'mon, that's a bit extreme. Getting down to the point, can you imagine the political fallout from crushing the value of a gas car? It's a truck sized political landmine, and no party is willing to touch that thing with a hundred foot stick. Gas still has significant advantages that electric has yet to match. Worst gas has 53x the specific energy of the best Li-ion, and even with a hundred % efficient…

Mostly you are right, but not entirely. Many of your concerns about electric cars are growing pains which means they need to be separated.

Cold weather reliability for electric cars will get better.

Battery wear out will be a problem we learn to solve - replacement batteries already exist, they just need to be factored into the cost of the car.

Most of the things you need to work on for electric cars are exactly the same as gas. You still have brakes, tires, a suspension system. The rest are things that those mechanics will learn, just as their learned to work on gas engines.

When there are enough electric cars on the road the network will follow.

You are correct that in 8 years the gas/diesel car will still dominate. It isn't clear if buyers will switch to electric cars by enough that all new cars are electric in 8 years (if the buyers don't switch the politicians will blink and repeal the 8 year law). However as buyers switch to electric cars the infrastructure will follow.

The real question is will non-cars switch to electric. The fuel density difference is just a minor annoyance for cars. For truck, trains, tractors, and other heavy duty operations the energy density is much more important.

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