A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating • Hacker News Board

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#321

Post by madcaptenor » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 1:40 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #250

grzm wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide a concrete example? I can't recall ever seeing such a disparity in the US having lived in the midwest, northwest, and east coast. Perhaps you're in a different location?

I've seen it frequently, especially when road configuration makes one station more convenient to, e.g., a freeway on/off-ramp.

The freeway offramp nearest my house has two gas stations with a ten-cent difference.

And wouldn't you know, I use the more expensive one, because it's the one that I can get to without making a bunch of turns.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#322

Post by paganel » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 1:50 PM UTC

donatj wrote: post #259

justinph wrote: post #182

Sure, as far as basic transportation goes, but you can't get the vastly improved safety features in a used car that you can in most new cars today. Buy a new Toyota? It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. I just bought a new car for the first time in my life. The safety o…

Why is it worth 10k? Do you get in a lot of accidents? I genuinely would not want any of those things, I don't want my car making decisions for me, I'm smarter than it. On top of that it's just junk to break you can't fix. I have never been in an accident. I drive a pickup I paid sub $1000 for. Been driving it for three years no issues. That $10k could buy me ten trucks. Would I take it on a trip? No, I rent a car fo…

> In my opinion buying new vehicles is a foolish waste of money I could be spending on something else.

Don't tell them that, otherwise us people who only buy SH cars will have nothing to purchase in 5 or 10 years.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#323

Post by LyndsySimon » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 1:51 PM UTC

loeg wrote: post #61

Awesome. My 20 year old car is in great shape but it is getting older and I will need to replace it sooner or later.

Yep.

I drive a 2000 Jeep Wrangler, and while I don't ever plan to sell it at some point it will get too expensive to keep on the road to justify using it as a daily driver. I expect that will be somewhere around 300k miles, since I just put in a new engine at 160k.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#324

Post by paganel » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 1:57 PM UTC

donatj wrote: post #262

grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

They're going to be repealed very quickly in my opinion. The laws were written by incredibly over optimistic people with zero understanding of the actual science or practicalities. Unless some fantastic new battery is invented very soon, there literally isn't enough lithium on earth to support the electric car market and lithium ion batteries are soon going to become prohibitively expensive.

> Unless some fantastic new battery is invented very soon, there literally isn't enough lithium on earth to support the electric car market and lithium ion batteries are soon going to become prohibitively expensive.

And unless the power networks from a lot of countries are not modernized. Not sure about the States, but over-here in Eastern Europe we get power-cuts from time to time during summer months because everybody has their AC turned on (they usually don't last long, but it happens). If half of the 1 million cars that are now driving on the streets in my city were to be electric then I'm pretty sure that the local power network will just give up spectacularly.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#325

Post by oasisbob » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:05 PM UTC

letsgetphysITal wrote: post #311

donatj wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it worth 10k? Do you get in a lot of accidents? I genuinely would not want any of those things, I don't want my car making decisions for me, I'm smarter than it. On top of that it's just junk to break you can't fix. I have never been in an accident. I drive a pickup I paid sub $1000 for. Been driving it for three years no issues. That $10k could buy me ten trucks. Would I take it on a trip? No, I rent a car fo…

> I have never been in an accident. Gambler's Fallacy. Prior incidence has no effect on future occurrence. A lot of the new safety features are for low-speed collision protection, automatically sounding horn and applying breaks when your car gets close to another, say in traffic. Unless you go top-range you generally won't get actual driving automation. Other than that it's just convenience; Climate control instead o…

Instead of barking the names of logical fallacies at people, perhaps consider why the auto insurance industry employs scores of actuaries and takes driver history into account so heavily.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#326

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:12 PM UTC

grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

[deleted]

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#327

Post by fundabulousrIII » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:23 PM UTC

ams6110 wrote: post #199

justinph wrote: post #182

Sure, as far as basic transportation goes, but you can't get the vastly improved safety features in a used car that you can in most new cars today. Buy a new Toyota? It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. I just bought a new car for the first time in my life. The safety o…

Just more stuff to go wrong. I buy well-maintained cars about 7-10 years old. The newest car I own right now is a 2004.

There is something to be said for simplicity but it gets worse with time and exposure. Many of these older cars have first run issues like exotic oil types or vanos type engines + known mileage warts and expensive replacement parts.

I used to drive old used junk all the time and the truth of the matter is that the newer the better and you will miss what you don't have. Yes, the car industry is a racket but keep in mind that a car is not an investment except in some wealthy circles.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#328

Post by dsfyu404ed » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:28 PM UTC

selectodude wrote: post #153

francisofascii wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's really interesting. It is the low gas prices? Or strength in the construction sector?

The former.

A 4dr crew cab can haul the kids to soccer and move furniture all while requiring one parking spot. It's a good multi-tool at the expense of operating costs. The cost of insurance, registration and (possibly) parking buys a hell of a lot of gas.

Think of a vehicle as having indoor storage, long term comfort (space to not be cramped) outdoor storage and passenger capacity. Crew cab trucks are used like full size sedans with outdoor storage instead of a trunk. That's a pretty good blend for most use cases since most people can use the second row as a trunk when not carrying passengers.

Insurance, registration and parking costs are a disincentive to buy specialist vehicles (like the electric commuter cars HN loves).

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#329

Post by kozak » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:40 PM UTC

dshibarshin wrote: post #131

wbracken wrote: post #109

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run tho…

The overseas markets can't seem to get enough of the Leafs. I've seen trucks full of Leafs delivered for export to places such as Ukraine.

I can confirm that used Leafs from the USA are very popular here in Kyiv. They sell for something around 18000 USD, are about three years old, and are said to have freshly replaced batteries (which may or may not be true).

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#330

Post by volkl48 » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:46 PM UTC

throwawaybbq1 wrote: post #295

hueving wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. Don't run into stuff? Most of that tech is only useful if you are an absent-minded driver and even then it only covers some cases (e.g. emergency braking doesn't help if the car in front of you slammed into something and you were fo…

Don't run into stuff??? You realize it is called an "accident" for a reason. The backup camera and blind spot detection are worth real dollars in my experience.

Calling it an "accident" is doublespeak so you can wave your hands and go "I had an accident, oops, it couldn't be helped."

Making it seem like it was just your fate that day. Which if it was at-fault, it certainly wasn't. It sounds a lot better than "I am either negligent or incompetent and shouldn't be trusted with piloting a 2-ton hulk of metal."

If you checked your blind spot every time like you ought to, the blind spot detection is at best a minor additional safety backup. I see a lot of people relying on it instead of actually doing that, and the systems aren't perfect. (One good example: Someone else is starting to merge into your blind spot but hasn't gotten in the lane yet).