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A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

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Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#261

Post by askvictor »

maherbeg wrote: post #230
Hasz wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Liquid cancer? C'mon, that's a bit extreme. Getting down to the point, can you imagine the political fallout from crushing the value of a gas car? It's a truck sized political landmine, and no party is willing to touch that thing with a hundred foot stick. Gas still has significant advantages that electric has yet to match. Worst gas has 53x the specific energy of the best Li-ion, and even with a hundred % efficient…

I think you might be a bit off here on the extent to which the average driver will be needing gasoline. Tesla's have less than 10% battery degradation after 8 years so far. What will happen is people will buy an electric car as a second car. They'll get comfortable charging every night and then buy a Chevy volt like car that usually won't need gas but can range extender as needed. A large portion of those users will…

More like 80-85% original capacity after 100,000 miles (http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/batteries/tesla-roadste...)

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#262

Post by donatj »

grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

They're going to be repealed very quickly in my opinion.

The laws were written by incredibly over optimistic people with zero understanding of the actual science or practicalities.

Unless some fantastic new battery is invented very soon, there literally isn't enough lithium on earth to support the electric car market and lithium ion batteries are soon going to become prohibitively expensive.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#263

Post by Glyptodon »

sliken wrote: post #200
Glyptodon wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it was circa 2012, and I may be exaggerating somewhat, but I particularly remember seeing new, lots-of-option Kia Souls selling for ~$18.5k new (window price) right next to used ones going for ~$18.5k used (window price) with nearly the same options on both. I think I also saw something similar with a few models of Honda, but my memory is most vivid with the Souls. And if memory serves, even when used was che…

Keep in mind that a new car dealer is the worst place to buy a used car. Of course the dealer over prices the used cars to make the new cars look good, that way new or used they make a good profit.

Oh, absolutely. But it was still ridiculous.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#264

Post by askvictor »

Robotbeat wrote: post #169
askvictor wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A friend who is a materials engineer told me that there aren't enough rare-Earth metals in the world to supply the demand for magnets to replace all of the current petrol based cars with electric cars. No sources unfortunately, but this thing might not scale.

Too bad your materials engineer friend has no idea that the most hyped EV car company, Tesla, doesn't even use rare earths in its motors because they're all induction motors. And you could of course replace the copper with the incredibly plentiful aluminum, which actually has superior conductivity per unit mass to copper. (Copper is nice because it's volumetrically more compact and is easier to make electrical connec…

TIL... I had just assumed that rare earth motors were more efficient and would be preferable in electric cars. I'll pass that on to him.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#265

Post by aphextron »

NDizzle wrote: post #234
aphextron wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leaf is a special case because of the battery degradation issues. 100k miles on a Leaf is basically end of life (unless you buy the $5k battery replacement). That being said, you can pick one up in California for $5k in perfect condition with Definitely a niche thing for heavy urban areas that have the charging infrastructure though. I can't imagine owning one in the Midwest.

75% battery life on a car that has a 90 mile range? Talk about range anxiety! I'm not sure who looks at those cars, but they sure don't use cars like I do. I don't even commute and I can't imagine the stress of driving something like that.

In the Bay Area it's never really an issue because of quick charging. 30 minutes gets you an 80% charge from 0. When you realize that point-to-point the longest possible drive around here is ~40 miles, and there is guaranteed to be a quick charger within a few miles of your destination, it changes things. I admit it's a total mindset shift from driving an ICE but I love it.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#266

Post by djaychela »

guan wrote: post #44
beejiu wrote: post #21

In the UK, many cars sold in the past few years are under a so-called Personal Contract Plan (PCP). These are basically sub-prime loans for cars where you lease the car for the difference between its purchase price and its projected depreciated value at the end of the term. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/10/car-loans-p... One of the UK regulators recently warned about the exposure to these loans. "An i…

British PCPs are very similar to the car leases that have been very common in the United States for many years (in both prime and subprime markets). There has been a lot of recent discussion about the risks associated with PCPs is mainly because they are relatively new in the UK, and because they have grown so quickly lately from almost zero. That means assumptions about the “residual value” (to use the American term…

"That means assumptions about the “residual value” (to use the American term) of the cars at the end of the contract, which are based largely on data from before PCPs became so popular, may not be so accurate."

When you put it like that, it reminds me of the endowment mortgage situation in the UK which led to people having serious issues at the end of their mortgage term [1]. Obviously not at the same scale, but it'll still alter the market considerably.

[1]: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20858236

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#267

Post by kspaans »

aianus wrote: post #241
grzm wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide a concrete example? I can't recall ever seeing such a disparity in the US having lived in the midwest, northwest, and east coast. Perhaps you're in a different location?

Costco is 20% cheaper than all other stations in Toronto. So either Costco is selling at a loss (unlikely) or there's plenty of profit in gas for gas stations.

Given that you have to pay an annual membership fee to get access to that gas, it's likely subsidized by the fee and used as a loss-leader to bring people to shop at Costco.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#268

Post by vasco »

donatj wrote: post #259
justinph wrote: post #182

Sure, as far as basic transportation goes, but you can't get the vastly improved safety features in a used car that you can in most new cars today. Buy a new Toyota? It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. I just bought a new car for the first time in my life. The safety o…

Why is it worth 10k? Do you get in a lot of accidents? I genuinely would not want any of those things, I don't want my car making decisions for me, I'm smarter than it. On top of that it's just junk to break you can't fix. I have never been in an accident. I drive a pickup I paid sub $1000 for. Been driving it for three years no issues. That $10k could buy me ten trucks. Would I take it on a trip? No, I rent a car fo…

"I have never been in an accident"

Much less a serious accident where important safety features make a difference is one of those things you won't generally hear the reverse being said since, you know, you'd be dead.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#269

Post by sgt101 »

DigitalJack wrote: post #212
dshibarshin wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The overseas markets can't seem to get enough of the Leafs. I've seen trucks full of Leafs delivered for export to places such as Ukraine.

Saw zero leafs during my week in London. Same with a week in Glasgow. Boat loads of prius’ though.

There are quite a few round here (rural Suffolk, UK)

I've seen a few in London, Nissan don't seem to market them very hard in the UK.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#270

Post by adrianN »

Hasz wrote: post #192
beambot wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean... if you drink gasoline, you probably will get cancer.

I'd argue eating a battery would end in a similar fashion. this is a link https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/seven-substanc... to a Health and Human Services 14th Report on Carcinogens, classifying cobalt as a carcinogen Point being, "liquid cancer" is fear-mongering hyperbole -- lots of things are carcinogenic.

Not many of those things get blown into the air in massive amounts right where population density is highest though.
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