With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…
A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
231–240 of 376 posts
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#232Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run tho…
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#233Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Why is it so dumb to buy a used car off the lot? It's not. The parent doesn't appear to understand the used car market in the US. Most people are not buying their used cars for $6,000 off of craigslist, that's a good way to end up with a pile of junk. It's a bad idea to buy a mid-value or higher used car outside the CPO or remaining original warranty programs if you can help it, ideally from a dealer.
Not my experience at all. Do a little research on which brands and models are reliable. Find a nicely maintained example of one of those offered by a private seller. It's going to be way cheaper than a dealer in my experience.
They lease it and then ownership ends up with some dealer at the end of the lease.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#234Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run tho…
Leaf is a special case because of the battery degradation issues. 100k miles on a Leaf is basically end of life (unless you buy the $5k battery replacement). That being said, you can pick one up in California for $5k in perfect condition with Definitely a niche thing for heavy urban areas that have the charging infrastructure though. I can't imagine owning one in the Midwest.
I don't even commute and I can't imagine the stress of driving something like that.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#235Earlier quoted context omitted.
Any advice on how to make sure you're getting a good one, or where to get one? We considered Leafs several years ago, but the range wasn't quite good enough for our needs. Since then, our needs have decreased and range has increased a bit. Would love to trade in one of our 25 mpg vehicles for a Leaf. Plenty of chargers around Palo Alto, including at work!
Make sure the battery has at least 8 bars left. There's two gauges on the dash: current charge and battery capacity. Capacity is the skinnier one on the right [0]. If you find one still within the warranty window below 8 bars, Nissan will even replace the battery free [1]. Also make sure you get one with a quick charge port, it's worth every penny. Other than that you really can't go wrong. http://www.plugincars.com/…
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#236The average used car costs $15,300? That seems pretty wild. Are the classic Porsches that sell for $10 million dragging the average up?
What classic Porsche is selling for $30M? * Even Steve McQueen's 917K only sold for $14.08M the other day. * A 956 with five LeMans wins sold for $10.12M. * The L&M sponsored 917/10 sold for $5.83M. * A RS60 Spyder with an amazing pedigree sold for $5.40M. * Jerry Seinfeld's 550 Spyder sold for $5.33M. * Paul Newman's 935 sold for $4.84M. ... and the list falls from there. As usual, the most valuable Porsches have pe…
I love the 956 as much as the next guy (more, even) but the only model to ever win Le Mans five times was the Audi R8, and it wasn't with the same chassis, I'm sure. Did you mean they sold a Le Mans chassis that won five races, more generally? Not trying to be a pedant, I'm honestly curious which car you're talking about.
> The L&M sponsored 917/10 sold for $5.83M
That's a surprisingly small figure. Which really speaks to your point, I guess.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#237Earlier quoted context omitted.
When new car sales move to electric from gasoline, you'll start to see gas stations go out of business...slowly at first but accelerating as the percentage of gas powered vehicles declines. You'll still have your car and be allowed to drive it, but the days of just finding a gas station wherever you need them will be over. Much like early days of electric cars, people will need a concrete refueling plan for every tri…
Or we'll see "gas" stations incrementally change to "gas-n-charge" stations. As society moves from liquid hydrocarbons to electrons for personal transportation I can see no reason why these locations won't adapt. After all, people will still ingest their liquid fuel and expel their waste. ;-)
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#238I really found the opposite last month when I was truck shopping. The prices at carmax weren't much lower than buying new. I even found one case where it was cheaper to buy new! I'm wondering if people hate the dealership experience so much they're driving up the price of used cars? I'm still just utterly confused by the used truck prices I was seeing.
>Certain segments are shedding value even more quickly. Subcompact cars, such as the Honda Fit, and large sedans, such as the Chevrolet Impala, are depreciating faster than average. Big SUVs, vans, and pickups are holding their value a little better, and imports tend to drop more quickly than domestic models.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#239Earlier quoted context omitted.
Leaf is a special case because of the battery degradation issues. 100k miles on a Leaf is basically end of life (unless you buy the $5k battery replacement). That being said, you can pick one up in California for $5k in perfect condition with Definitely a niche thing for heavy urban areas that have the charging infrastructure though. I can't imagine owning one in the Midwest.
75% battery life on a car that has a 90 mile range? Talk about range anxiety! I'm not sure who looks at those cars, but they sure don't use cars like I do. I don't even commute and I can't imagine the stress of driving something like that.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#240With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…
And the price of gas might plummet as big oil realises no-one is buying.
Eventually this will end up costing more - all the gas stations will close as it gets too expensive with reduced economies of scale, but until they go out of business they'll cut prices.