A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating • Hacker News Board

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#181

Post by chc » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:32 AM UTC

woodandsteel wrote: post #123

dangrossman wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All other articles and GM comments say that the extended summer shutdown is to increase Bolt supply, not because there is too much supply already. The Bolt outsold both of Tesla's vehicles last month. The Sonic has weak sales, so during the shutdown they're reconfiguring the plant to make 1 Bolt for every 1 Sonic, where it was 1:2 before.

>The Bolt outsold both of Tesla's vehicles last month. The article says GM sold only 7,592 Bolts in the first six months of this year. Tesla sold way more, and it makes a much higher profit per vehicle. I don't know why Bolt sales are so low. When it came out the reviews were all very positive, and they said it would be strong competition for the Tesla Model 3. But the Tesla already has several hundred thousand pre-o…

The Bolt wasn't even available in most states for the first six months of the year. That would probably account for low sales.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#182

Post by justinph » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:33 AM UTC

Sure, as far as basic transportation goes, but you can't get the vastly improved safety features in a used car that you can in most new cars today. Buy a new Toyota? It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that.

I just bought a new car for the first time in my life. The safety of those features was worth the $10k premium for a new car.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#183

Post by jpmattia » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:35 AM UTC

wbracken wrote: post #109

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run tho…

> When they run them through now and get 50% on the dollar, their securitization pools will be creamed.

Amazing that mark-to-market is still not restored 10 years after its suspension.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#184

Post by kevin_thibedeau » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:42 AM UTC

grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

> I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car.

Nobody has addressed the infrastructural problem of recharging massive fleets of privately owned electric vehicles. It's a pipe dream that this will all be fixed by 2030.

This will never happen in the US for the foreseeable future. Considering how our broadband surcharges have been siphoned off with nothing to show for it, no amount of government intervention through taxation will fix this. That leaves market forces as the only factor in play for the US. The market is going to stick with ICE cars.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#185

Post by beambot » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:42 AM UTC

Hasz wrote: post #178

grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

Liquid cancer? C'mon, that's a bit extreme. Getting down to the point, can you imagine the political fallout from crushing the value of a gas car? It's a truck sized political landmine, and no party is willing to touch that thing with a hundred foot stick. Gas still has significant advantages that electric has yet to match. Worst gas has 53x the specific energy of the best Li-ion, and even with a hundred % efficient…

I mean... if you drink gasoline, you probably will get cancer.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#186

Post by hammock » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:43 AM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #166

batiudrami wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because a colour TV is fundamentally and objectively better at its primary use case (watching TV). A petrol powered car will get you from A to B just like an electric one.

EV is fundamentally and objectively better as well. Heat, noise, maintenance/fuel cost are lower. Acceleration higher. Contingent on low battery prices which make range and charge rate competitive.

Range lower, maintenance costs higher. The argument goes both ways but whichever side you are on, we are on the same side that EV are fundamentally different than gas cars, at least as much as color TV vs b&w.

In my mind, just as getting 3x more colors gives you exponentially richer storytelling, 3x more range (way more than that actually, since a gas car can be in almost continuous use with brief stops for fuel) gives you the freedom to go exponentially many more places, do things etc

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#187

Post by nradov » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:44 AM UTC

chiph wrote: post #162

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Man I've been looking for a decently priced leaf for a long time. I'd like to attend an auction like this in the Bay Area. It may be this location but Craigslist is pretty slim pickings.

The local CarMax may have auctions for the local "Mom & Pop" dealers - you won't be able to bid, but if you talked to a registered bidder ahead of time and told them what you are willing to pay (in cash) for a Leaf that day , they may bid on one for you. Point out that they won't have any lot insurance fees on it, since you'll be taking delivery immediately.

Yes that works pretty well. My wife wanted a specific model of used car several years ago so we told our regular mechanic (who has a dealer license) to find one in good condition at the local auction and bid up to a certain price. It was worth paying him for his time to attend the auction and filter out the cars with problems.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#188

Post by kevin_thibedeau » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:45 AM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #166

batiudrami wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because a colour TV is fundamentally and objectively better at its primary use case (watching TV). A petrol powered car will get you from A to B just like an electric one.

EV is fundamentally and objectively better as well. Heat, noise, maintenance/fuel cost are lower. Acceleration higher. Contingent on low battery prices which make range and charge rate competitive.

> Heat

Not in the winter.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#189

Post by yuhong » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:47 AM UTC

1_2__4 wrote: post #64

grecy wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the laws only apply to new vehicles. It's similar to when Color TVs were invented. What happened to the re-sale value of all the B&W TVs that were already out there? They plummeted, because they had been superseded. This scenario will be even more aggressive, because laws will ban the sale of the "old tech".

That's not really comparable at all. A color tv is a fundamentally more distinct product as compared to a b&w tv than a ICE cars is compared to an electric. Especially for the foreseeable future.

The difference is that a B&W TV will still be usable as long as there is an NTSC signal while an old ICE car won't be usable without gas stations.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#190

Post by billhathaway » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 2:50 AM UTC

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #141

wbracken wrote: post #109

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run tho…

Man I've been looking for a decently priced leaf for a long time. I'd like to attend an auction like this in the Bay Area. It may be this location but Craigslist is pretty slim pickings.

There are pretty massive subsidies on new Leafs now. $10k reduction by dealers as well as $7500 federal tax rebate (and potentially CA rebate if you are low income).