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A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

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Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#171

Post by FussyZeus »

wbracken wrote: post #109

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run tho…

I mean does this really shock anyone? There are like no less than 20 used lots in my city alone (which is hardly a metro hub) all of which have probably at least a hundred used cars on the lot. And that's JUST the used dealership market, not even counting the new dealers, the private sellers, the rental places getting rid of cars, or anybody else I'm not thinking of.

There are actual quantifiable fuckloads of cars in the states. It's really a wonder there's enough customers to feed this industry at all, ability to pay the financing notwithstanding.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#172

Post by cowsandmilk »

putsteadywere wrote: post #65
grecy wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen what happens to gas stations during a mandatory evacuation or disaster? With no electricity, gas can not be pumped from the tanks. Even when it can, there is immediately a line-up of 100s of vehicles. (I see this very often in West Africa)

I saw it the other day when the eclipse came to Oregon, and the population suddenly increased by 25% for a few days. I'm guessing that if the number of electric cars surged by 25% for a few days, it would be much less of a problem. [0]: http://www.kgw.com/news/eclipse/gas-shortages-long-waits-rep...

> I'm guessing that if the number of electric cars surged by 25% for a few days, it would be much less of a problem.

Some parts of the US aren't able to easily meet energy demand they can forecast when it goes up by amounts like 25%. For instance, Pepco pays to install thermostats where they can turn down/off your air conditioner[0]. Same with Dominion Energy[1]. I would be unsurprised if an influx of people of the size to cause gas shortages would also cause problems for electrical grids in many parts of the country.

[0] https://energywiserewards.pepco.com/md/faq/index.php#q2

[1] https://www.dominionenergy.com/home-and-small-business/ways-...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#173

Post by esaym »

winslow wrote: post #86
ryandrake wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who at one point considered a 500e, why so cheap in the aftermarket? Are they really falling apart this quickly?

Potentially. But I think it's also the fact that dealerships are leasing out the 500e at $99 or even $59 a month for 3 year deals. So why even buy a used 500e when you can get a brand new one for <$100 a month or $1200 a year.

I doubt it is $1200 a year. More than likely the full coverage insurance would be $100-$200 a month also.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#174

Post by cowsandmilk »

davidw wrote: post #73
putsteadywere wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw it the other day when the eclipse came to Oregon, and the population suddenly increased by 25% for a few days. I'm guessing that if the number of electric cars surged by 25% for a few days, it would be much less of a problem. [0]: http://www.kgw.com/news/eclipse/gas-shortages-long-waits-rep...

Interestingly, my observation here in Bend was that the worst shortages were in the middle of last week as locals rushed to fill up so they wouldn't run out... Could have been worse up near Madras, though, which is smaller and had a lot more people.

yep, article from parent was from August 16, well before the eclipse...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#175

Post by Baeocystin »

Cerium wrote: post #107
gozur88 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently you won't get much for it, then. I'm kind of in the same boat, but I'd really like to get an electric model that's been produced for a few years, which means there won't be much on the used market.

About two years ago I bought an off lease 2012 Nissan Leaf for about 12k including all taxes and fees. It had 20k miles on it, very good condition, and battery at about 90%. So far I have been very happy, and have spent nearly no money on the car besides insurance and registration since my employer offers free charging. Obviously range is an issue, but is mitigated since I am married and have a gas car as well to use…

I've been thinking about picking up a lightly-used leaf, but the prices are plummeting, and I'm willing to bet they'll drop further still once the longer-range 2018 model comes out. And you're right about how many are around the bay area. Even here in Gilroy, there are a half-dozen used ones sitting on the lots.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#176

Post by freehunter »

mrfusion wrote: post #120

I really found the opposite last month when I was truck shopping. The prices at carmax weren't much lower than buying new. I even found one case where it was cheaper to buy new! I'm wondering if people hate the dealership experience so much they're driving up the price of used cars? I'm still just utterly confused by the used truck prices I was seeing.

Trucks are known for being incredibly reliable and fitting almost every niche all at once. Need to haul 5 people? You can have a pickup or a sedan. Need to haul lumber? You can have a pickup or a van. Need to drive down a 2 track road once or twice? You can have a pickup or an SUV. Need to move a refrigerator? You can have a pickup... well really just a pickup. Need to haul a trailer? You need a pickup. Need to park downtown? We invented rear-view cameras for that, no need for a subcompact anymore. Need good gas milage? Why? Gas is cheap.

They last forever, are known for being inexpensive to maintain, and in the rare occasion you actually need a pickup, now you don't have to rent one. There's no situation where you need a sedan but a four-door pickup won't also work. So they hold their value very well.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#177

Post by dpiers »

mixmastamyk wrote: post #149
loeg wrote: post #61

Awesome. My 20 year old car is in great shape but it is getting older and I will need to replace it sooner or later.

I keep my old car around because it doesn't track my movements. ;) Though the same can't be said for the police.

You shouldn't worry about the police as much as MVTRAC and Vigilant Solutions

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#178

Post by Hasz »

grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

Liquid cancer? C'mon, that's a bit extreme.

Getting down to the point, can you imagine the political fallout from crushing the value of a gas car? It's a truck sized political landmine, and no party is willing to touch that thing with a hundred foot stick.

Gas still has significant advantages that electric has yet to match. Worst gas has 53x the specific energy of the best Li-ion, and even with a hundred % efficient induction motor and a 10% efficient motor (try closer to 30% realistically), gas is still a much more energy dense fuel.

Still, gas has a ton going for it. It's quicker to "charge" by an order of magnitude; it's easy to carry an auxiliary supply to double or triple range. Cold weather and reliability are excellent (hundreds of thousands of miles with a minimum of maintenance). There are no concerns about cell wearout (batteries will last for 5 years, maybe). Virtually everywhere on the planet, there's someone in any population center who knows how to work with gas cars.

The network for gas is highly developed and highly entrenched. No one is giving up trillions in value without a fight. In all honesty, I expect to see gasoline powered vehicles on the road for the next 100 years, barring an unprecedented revolution.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#179

Post by batiudrami »

Robotbeat wrote: post #166
batiudrami wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because a colour TV is fundamentally and objectively better at its primary use case (watching TV). A petrol powered car will get you from A to B just like an electric one.

EV is fundamentally and objectively better as well. Heat, noise, maintenance/fuel cost are lower. Acceleration higher. Contingent on low battery prices which make range and charge rate competitive.

Oh don't get me wrong - there are advantages of course. But people are underinformed / bad at calculating whole of life costs / don't have the extra cash available so a cheap petrol vehicle will look appealing. There isn't the "wow" factor of comparing colour vs B&W TV - especially at the low end. The Nissan Leaf was a nice car to drive but it wasn't impressing anyone because of how cool it looked.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#180

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

> What’s more, an increasing share of those sales came with a lease, so there’s now a rising tide of machines flowing back onto the market when their three-year contracts run out.

Hopefully the 1%'s lobbyists won't figure out how to plug this loophole in their rentier serfdom.

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